China not a military nuclear threat to Australia
Compared with China’s 200 nuclear warheads, the US has 2150 operational strategic nuclear warheads together with 2850 warheads in reserve that are relatively quickly deployable…
…. let’s not frighten ourselves to death by drumming up the next military threat to Australia and basing our defence policy on the likelihood that we are going to be attacked by China.
Knocking on nobody’s door, THE AUSTRALIAN, Paul Dibb , July 18, 2011 “……..Since its first nuclear explosion in 1964, Beijing has struggled to develop a minimum nuclear deterrent force. Unlike the US and Russia, it has no credible nuclear war-fighting capability.
China’s land-based intercontinental ballistic missile force was until quite recently vulnerable to a disarming first strike. It has about 66 ICBMs, some of which are solid fuelled and road-mobile and therefore more difficult to target. Only about 24 of these ICBMs are truly intercontinental in range. And China’s only ballistic missile-firing submarine has had no experience of long-range, covert patrols.
By comparison, the US has the world’s most advanced nuclear war-fighting capabilities. Compared with China’s 200 nuclear warheads, the US has 2150 operational strategic nuclear warheads together with 2850 warheads in reserve that are relatively quickly deployable.
It is true, however, that China is modernising its force and we should expect it in the next few years to deploy more ICBMs capable of targeting the US. It has one new JIN-class nuclear submarine that has entered service. However, its associated JL-2 ballistic missile has encountered difficulty, failing several final test flights.
According to the Pentagon, the PLA has only a limited capacity to communicate with submarines at sea, and the Chinese navy has no experience in managing a ballistic missile submarine fleet that performs long-range patrols with live nuclear warheads mated to missiles. China’s land-based mobile missiles may also face similar command and control challenges in wartime…..
So, let’s not frighten ourselves to death by drumming up the next military threat to Australia and basing our defence policy on the likelihood that we are going to be attacked by China.
Paul Dibb is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University.
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