Antinuclear

In a discussion paper to be released today, the institute argues the Coalition would have to work through several years of parliamentary process to build a double-dissolution election trigger to dump the carbon tax via a joint sitting of Parliament and replace it with its direct-action climate change policy.

The institute also says the lengthy political fight would result in significant uncertainty for industry in making investment decisions, pushing up costs especially in the electricity sector.

The Australia Institute’s analysis assumes the Greens still hold the balance of power in the Senate if the Coalition wins the next federal election – due in mid-2013 – and Labor continues to support the carbon price scheme in opposition.

Greens leader Bob Brown has given a ”rolled gold guarantee” his party would seek to protect the carbon price if it continues to hold the balance of power after the 2013 poll.

The Opposition Leader has stated on several occasions he would take the country to a double-dissolution poll – sparking a joint sitting of the lower and upper houses of Parliament and likely giving the Coalition the numbers needed to dump the tax – if required……

The Australia Institute also argues that it could take until 2018 for the Coalition’s direct-action policy to fully come into effect and begin to reduce emissions, if dumping the carbon tax is held back until 2016.
‘As the length of time around the uncertainty [on carbon pricing] grows, so does the cost,” the report says.

”If the Coalition pursues its current commitments to roll back the carbon price, this could lead to five or more years of uncertainty followed by more uncertainty on a post-2020 emissions reduction mechanism.”

The institute’s senior economist, Matt Grudnoff, said draft carbon price legislation released by Labor had been ”proofed” to ensure the industry’s obligation to pay the carbon tax – due to begin mid-2012 – could not be removed without new legislation….http://www.theage.com.au/environment/dumping-carbon-tax-could-take-five-years-20110821-1j4vg.html