As solar energy costs fall, Australia needs to act fast developing solar expertise
the potential role of solar is quite impressive. It could be a trillion dollar market or more within a decade or two, and the world’s biggest energy technology companies are jostling for position. As Mark Twidell, from the Australian Solar Institute points out, solar is the only technology where costs are falling rapidly – most others are static or rising…..
Australian solar thinks big, Climate Spectator,Giles Parkinson, 9 Sept 11, More than 100 aspiring developers of large-scale solar plants will join financiers, policy makers and NGOs in Melbourne for yet another solar summit today – anxious to learn how they can stop meeting like this and actually go out and build stuff.
The Clean Energy Council is hosting this event to launch its Large-Scale Solar Policy Roadmap, the fruit of a workshop held in December, and observations from its own annual conference, two summits held by the NSW government, and a federally-sponsored conference in Canberra in December.
The message is really quite clear: the $1.5 billion Solar Flagships program has put Australia on the map again in the international solar industry, and two consortia have received buckets of money to build very big plants. But unless a pathway can be found to retain the interest of the several dozen other solar developers attracted to these shores by the flagships program, then they will soon pack their bags and head to greener climates.
The second round of the Flagships program promises reforms from the first version, and will likely hand out smaller grants to a greater number of smaller projects, but that process won’t begin until 2013. Yet the government received 52 applicants for round 1, accounting for projects that could deliver 10GW of solar power, and an investment of more than $50 billion. As Spanish group Acciona demonstrated when it withdrew from the protracted first round, there is plenty of competition for capital overseas.
The vision for large-scale solar in Australia lies somewhere between Beyond Zero Emissions’ aspirational plan of 100 per cent renewable energy by 2020 (42GW of large-scale solar) and Treasury’s modest 5 per cent prediction for 2050 (apparently they forgot about the CEFC). Where it ends up will depend entirely on when and how the handbrake applied on behalf of the current incumbent is released.
One of the principal conclusions of the CEC review is that the industry needs a pipeline of projects to 2020, 2030 and 2050, and the manner of incentive matters less than what has been missing to date – policy clarity and certainty – although a mixture of instruments such as loan guarantees, reverse auctions and longer-term power purchase agreements would probably do the trick.
An early move advantage might be critical if Australia wants to establish a significant role in an industry that could dominate the international energy markets in the decades to come. Australia has no hope of becoming a centre for solar manufacturing, but it can become a centre of solar expertise; offering engineering and construction services to the world, and in particular the Asia Pacific, and taking advantage of its excellent R&D and hands-on experience. But, given the pipeline of projects planned for Spain, India, the US and elsewhere, it needs to act soon.
The forecasts from independent analysts about the potential role of solar is quite impressive. It could be a trillion dollar market or more within a decade or two, and the world’s biggest energy technology companies are jostling for position. As Mark Twidell, from the Australian Solar Institute points out, solar is the only technology where costs are falling rapidly – most others are static or rising…..
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/australian-solar-thinks-big
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