Antinuclear

Germany showing the way towards a distributed, decentralised energy future

And will the rest of Europe follow? The poll-leading Socialists in France, after all, are talking of halving the country’s nuclear capacity. “Most of the world will follow this way, but it will be slow,” Dudenhauser says. “Everyone expected blackouts after the nuclear shutdown, but it didn’t happen.  But it would not be manageable if everyone goes Germany’s way in the next two years.”

Size not a factor in German power play , Climate Spectator, Giles Parkinson, 24 Nov 11 It seems strange that the world’s most cautious and best performing economy should be acting as some sort of crash test dummy for the world’s clean energy future. But this is exactly the position that Germany finds itself in following its commitment earlier this year to abandon nuclear energy and to push towards its vision of a fully renewable power supply by 2050.

And if this is the future, then companies that have based their models around the principal of centralised power stations may find little cause for comfort. But it is presenting enormous opportunities for those focused on the concept of distributed generation, particularly fuel cells – at least that’s the take of Roman Dudenhausen, the CEO and co-founder of German energy consultants ConEnergy, and a recently appointed director to the board of Australia’s Ceramic Fuels Cells.

Dudenhausen says the accelerated phase-out of Germany’s nuclear capacity is presenting companies such as Ceramic with a unique opportunity……

“We will see some wind parks, but not as many as predicted,” Dudenhausen says.

Gas is also not coming to the party in the way many had anticipated. The two issues are the cost of gas, expensive in a country that does not have its own supplies, and because the extent of solar PV that has been rolled out in Germany has flattened the energy cost curve, reducing the opportunity for gas to cash in at peak demand. “The big incentive to build gas-fired plants is gone,” Dudenhausen says.

That, he says, is leaving the door open to distributed sources such as fuel cells. And the opportunity has increased because of the unique nature of Germany’s electricity market, and its politics – which are so green as to be almost unrecognisable to Australian political parties – and the tolerance of consumers of higher energy costs.

The key, though, lies in the make-up of the energy market itself. While generation is dominated by four big companies – RWE, E.ON, Vattenfall and EnBW – which have 80 per cent of the market, these companies have only 15 per cent of the retail market, which is highly fragmented, with more than 800 different retailers; and the distribution network is managed by councils and other local and regional authorities. Network utilities are required by law to connect small-scale generators to the grid and to allow energy to be exported. Crucially, it is also part of a broader European grid.

Dudenhausen says technologies such as Ceramic’s Bluegen fuel cells could be used as part of a network established by regional-co-operatives, some of which have more than seven million customers. The fuel cells are too expensive for most individual households, but if hundreds of them (“a swarm”, as he describes it) were installed by co-operatives in households and run by the local utility, then fuel cells could emerge as a key part of the country’s energy grid…..

Dudenhausen says there is no doubt that Germany will emerge as a role model for the European market, and possibly elsewhere, and is currently the leading market for green and decentralised new energy. “We are ready for radical change,” he says. Some development he contemplates seeing soon include solar PV painted on buildings, and a web-based energy “exchange” among small-scale generator owners……

EnBW is being transformed into a utility that focuses on wind, solar and other renewables. “Politicians are willing to take some risks,” Dudenhauser said. “The question about change is not when or if, but how fast – fast or faster. This will be a very difficult period for the traditional energy industry.”

And will the rest of Europe follow? The poll-leading Socialists in France, after all, are talking of halving the country’s nuclear capacity. “Most of the world will follow this way, but it will be slow,” Dudenhauser says. “Everyone expected blackouts after the nuclear shutdown, but it didn’t happen.  But it would not be manageable if everyone goes Germany’s way in the next two years.”

November 24, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, energy