Solar photovoltaic energy is here to stay, and to grow, in Australia
The inevitability of Solar PV in Australia, The Energy Collective, Nigel Morris, August 8, 2012 Is 40 gigawatts by 2030 conceivable in Australia?We argue for the inevitable surprise PV has in store for us. Over the last few months, I have had the pleasure of presenting to hundreds of solar industry delegates at the EcoGeneration Master Classes held around Australia.
Inevitably, the most interesting part for me was the conversations with so many who are at the ‘coal face’; working day in, day out to sell the virtues of solar photovoltaic (PV) against rising coal-fired energy prices.
I met installers who told me that they could feel the attitude of the mass market changing, describing how the economic proposition was so compelling that conversion rates were rising, despite the declining levels of government support.
I met wholesalers who were astounded at the rate of demand from dealers, at the pull-through from the market, and that it is flowing well beyond 30 June – when the Small-scale Technology Certificate (STC) multiplier will be reduced. They are talking about short-term supply shortages, would you believe.
…….One of the most popular slides in my presentation was one that showed a snapshot of where the local market could be by 2030. This slide stems from analysis I helped produce for the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) who – as a result – effectively lifted the expectations for solar PV from less than 2 gigawatts (GW) in 2030 to a potential of 18 GW. And that’s only the rooftop installations; the ‘behind-the-meter’ demand. But since the last Master Class, several fascinating events have occurred that got me thinking about how this revised projection fits into the wider context of predicting solar uptake.
Firstly, we have seen Minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson, Origin Chief Executive Officer Grant King and others say that energy demand is not growing as fast as expected and that solar and other measures are having a material impact on both generation and declining wholesale electricity costs. Mr King said that he doesn’t expect to see any new generation built until after 2020.
The Merit Order Effect is apparently, alive and kicking.
Secondly, despite increasingly desperate attempts by some media outlets to mislead the public and blame the carbon price and green schemes for most of the electricity price increases; an increasing amount of people are simply not buying this – the argument is too transparent. The real story seems to be far more interesting, if the media interviews I have done and read are anything to go by.
Thirdly, new data is emerging about the unexpectedly strong uptake of solar in Australia and some other countries, despite falling levels of government support. This year in Australia, for example – despite our most bullish attempts to project demand – it looks exceedingly likely that we will once again see more solar installed than we projected.
These observations prompted me to dig out some historical forecasts from the late 1980s and 90s and do my own analysis – the likely results are nothing short of astonishing.
On average, across ten different long-range forecasts (typically ten years forward) for wind and solar PV around the world, the predictions for uptake have been consistently underestimated by a factor of ten. That’s right, demand has been ten times higher than predicted. Looking at solar PV alone, the uptake has been even higher at 11.7 times the annual demand than even the wildest optimists could imagine….. http://theenergycollective.com/solarbusiness/100981/inevitability-solar-pv-australia
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