Antinuclear

Turnaround in Australia’s energy predictions – new wind power will dominate

It’s official: Australia needs no new coal or gas baseload REneweconomy, By Giles Parkinson  9 August 2012  Since pretty much the start of the National Electricity Market more than a decade ago, the Australian power industry has regarded the annual Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) as their bible to help pinpoint where a new coal or gas-fired generator might be needed to meet rising demand.

Given the recent revisions to the demand outlook, the list of opportunities for the coming year was expected to
be small. It turns out there are basically none. This would come as no surprise to the industry, which as been foreshadowing such a scenario since the start of the year, and it makes it pretty much official:
There is no need for any new fossil fuel generation over the next decade, and wind farms will dominate Australia’s new build in the years to come.

The 2012 ESOO released today by the Australian Energy Market Operator
suggests that under its “medium scenario,” the date that individual
states might need new baseload generation has been pushed out by
between three and seven years. No state will face an energy deficit
until 2018/19, when Victoria might require 115MW, while South
Australia might need just 24MW in 2019/20, and Queensland 79MW by
2020/21.

Under its low scenario, which incorporates factors like increased
distributed generation and low growth in demand – a scenario that many
expect given the response to rising electricity prices and the
anticipated growth of demand management and energy efficiency measures
– the only state with a looming deficit any time in the next decade is
Victoria, which might need an extra 54MW by 2021/22….. …….. this is in sharp contrast to the 2011 predictions, ….
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/its-official-australia-needs-no-new-coal-or-gas-baseload-33702

August 10, 2012 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | General News