Antinuclear

Australian uranium to India, a mirage more than a reality

 the glacial pace of nuclear power plant construction and activation in India in the face of anti-nuclear campaigns;

Indian uranium deals a long way off  GEOFF HISCOCK   The Australian October 29, 2012 AUSTRALIA’S new willingness to sell uranium to India is more about snuggling up to Asia’s third largest economy than any actual nuclear
commerce. It is highly unlikely that Australian uranium will be powering Indian nuclear reactors in this decade.

India’s 20 operating reactors, spread across six sites, have an installed capacity of 4.8 gigawatts (GW) and consume about 1000 tonnes of uranium a year. With New Delhi setting revised goals of boosting nuclear output to 14.4 GW
by 2020 and between 27.5 and 63 GW by 2032, the decision by the Gillard government to allow uranium sales to India seemingly presents an opportunity for Australian producers BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Heathgate Resources and Uranium1.

But Prime Minister Gillard’s decision should be seen as a token of
political trust rather than a trade breakthrough. Even if some uranium
exports to India were to take place by say, 2020, their value would be
only a fraction of what India spends now in buying Australian coal,
and is likely to pay for Australian LNG in the future.Five thousand
tonnes of uranium oxide – the outer limit of what India could possibly
want from Australian suppliers in 2020 — is likely to be worth about
$1 billion at 2012 prices. While a substantial amount, compare that
with the likely $30 to $40 billion value of Australia’s LNG exports to
Asia in 2020, some of which will go to India.

Plus the India uranium trade is an opportunity likely to be some years
in the making. The reasons include the need to negotiate a bilateral
civilian nuclear power agreement (which could take two years); the glacial pace of nuclear power plant construction and activation in India in the face of anti-nuclear campaigns; the reality that France,
Russia and Kazakhstan are already the country’s main uranium
suppliers, with Canada, Mongolia and African nations such as Namibia
waiting in the wings; and the problems surrounding India’s nuclear
legal liability legislation.

This last issue is the big international deal-stopper. Without clarity
on compensation procedures for nuclear damage, countries such as the
United States and Japan are unable to supply India with nuclear
technology. That doesn’t necessarily stop the uranium trade, but it
gives companies pause for thought.\
A new law passed by the Indian parliament in August 2010 was supposed
to clear up the liability situation, but has not done so. That makes
it difficult even for state-run nuclear suppliers such as Russia’s
Atomstroyexport and France’s Areva to move ahead quickly with their
reactor construction plans in India.

Along with the legal liability issue, the anti-nuclear protest
movement is a big factor hindering any rapid build up of India’s
nuclear capacity. For example, at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu state, two
Russian 1000 MW light water reactors are being built by
Atomstroyexport, with four more planned for later this decade. The
first unit was due to be commissioned in 2008, but a long-running
protest by local villagers and anti-nuclear campaigners has delayed it
by four years. It is unlikely to contribute any power to India’s grid
before 2013. The second unit may come on line in 2014, while the fate
of the third and fourth units is still tied up with the legal
liability issue.

Russian President Minister Vladimir Putin was due to visit India this
week and discuss the nuclear issue with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,
but his trip has been put off until the end of December, further
clouding the technology transfer picture.

The outlook for French supplier Areva is equally uncertain. Under a $9
billion deal struck in December 2010, Areva was to build two 1650 MW
pressurised water reactors at Jaitapur in Maharashtra state for the
Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) by 2017-18, with France
guaranteeing a fuel supply for 25 years.  But no contract has been
signed for the first two, and 2020 is now the earliest commissioning
date.
Another four reactors are due to follow at the same coastal site –
which is in a seismically sensitive area — giving an eventual
combined output of just under 10 GW.  If all six reactors are built,
it would be the world’s largest nuclear power generating station. Work
may start on the first reactor in 2014, but it also is facing a
campaign by anti-nuclear protesters.

Five other reactors at three sites in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan
and Tamil Nadu are under construction, but none of them is due to be
operational until 2015-16…….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/indian-uranium-deals-a-long-way-off/story-e6frg9df-1226505421301

October 29, 2012 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, politics international, uranium