Antinuclear

CSIRO’s “eFuture”.- new online modelling tool to design Australia’s energy market

How to design your own clean energy future, REneweconomy, By Giles Parkinson   8 November 2012 Do you want to design your own energy market for Australia? Keen to know what a low emissions network might look like. What sort of grid are we looking at if solar is cheap and solar thermal with storage reduces its costs?

Punters, experts, and even those with vested interests of their own are invited to find out with a new online modeling tool released today by the CSIRO called “eFuture”. It is the latest in a series of online tools released by the CSIRO, which is looking for new ways of communicating the science.
Apparently, the online tracker of great white sharks  and other
sea-life, and the modeling on climate scenarios  are also popular.

The eFuture tool is released at the same time as the government Energy
White Paper, and is designed to allow the public to decide what they
would choose, and  understand some of the consequences, if they were
in Energy Minister Martin Ferguson’s shoes. The modeling tool has
existed for some time – and has helped inform the government – but
this is the first time it is being made public.
It is relying on costs supplied by the Australian Energy Technology
Assessment completed this year by the Bureau of Resource and Energy
Economics. It offers around 20 technologies, and gives varying
predictions based on high, medium and low scenarios on the key inputs
– high, medium and low energy scenarios for energy demand, technology
cost, fuel price, the type of back-up for renewables, and, somewhat
controversially, a yes/no option for nuclear. The results are
displayed in technology mix, the emissions abatement curve, and the
wholesale and retail energy prices out to 2030 and 2050.

“Australia will undergo a huge transformation in the energy sector
over the next 35 years where a greater number and more diverse mix of
electricity sources are likely to be powering our homes, businesses
and industry,” says Dr Alex Wonhas, the head of CSIRO’s Energy
Transformed Flagship. “eFuture help us to understand just some of
possible pathways before us and what it could mean for technology
development, the economy and the environment.”

Paul Graham, the manager of carbon futures research at CSIRO, said
there are some interesting results from the various scenarios. A high
fuel price, for instance, displaces a lot of gas technology, and a
high cost pushes carbon capture and storage right out of the energy
mix – such are the sensitivities of the scenarios. By 2050, brown coal
is a thing of the past………
Unfortunately, on nuclear, BREE’s estimates were in fantasy land,
estimating that nuclear plants could be built now for as little as
$55-$60/MWh in the low cost scenario – about one quarter of the price
quoted to the UK government by the world’s leading nuclear developers.

Most people in the industry, including nuclear developers, think such
estimates are risible, and even the “high range” of $100/MWh would
only be attainable if plants received cheap government finance (a la
China), were ordered in bulk and accepted lower level of safety
measures.

But Joe Public would not know this. He would press on the “yes” button
for nuclear, and find that in this scenario nuclear makes up one half
of Australia’s energy mix by 2050 and the cost estimates for
electricity in 2050 are nearly those of other technology mix.  It’s a
shame, because such models are designed to inform – but with this
particular technology cost option, the effect is to mislead.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/csiro-model-how-to-design-your-own-clean-energy-future-39135

November 8, 2012 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | General News