Antinuclear

Solar energy in Australia heading for big commercial applications?

Solar PV projects can be rolled out within months, not years. The experience from the Australian residential solar sector illustrates that solar PV can scaled-up very quickly.  While grid connection is a more involved process for commercial rooftop solar than residential, each system involves tens of kilowatts instead of just two or three. So it seems reasonable to expect that if the market conditions are conducive, there would be no physical constraints to commercial solar rolling out a few hundred megawatts in 2014, and a gigawatt in 2015.

There would still be a need for new wind farm development under such scenario, but it would buy time for wind farm projects to scale-up, and ensure enough supply to meet the Renewable Energy Target.

Market could blindside Origin and Energy Australia  Climate Spectator  Tristan Edis 9 Aug, “……So far Origin Energy and Energy Australia have been holding out on signing onto long-term power purchase agreements for wind farms, because they’re hoping the Coalition will water down the level of the Renewable Energy Target. AGL has also put a halt to further development concerned that it might come true.

This can create a self-fulfilling phenomenon, because waiting to develop projects makes the target more difficult to achieve. This then encourages government to intervene to water down the target.

However there’s some interesting wrinkles that could mean solar becomes a bigger player in the large-scale renewable energy target, producing substantial numbers of large-scale renewable energy certificates known as LGCs.

1) Non-traditional buyers for renewable energy certificates may emerge and the price will rise……..

2) Commercial rooftop solar developers will begin producing LGCs……..

3) Finance products are emerging to support commercial solar………… Firstly the Clean Energy Finance Corporation is helping to hold the hand of the Australian banks in developing leasing products for commercial-scale solar.  Meg McDonald, COO of the CEFC told Climate Spectator that of the $10billion pipeline of project financing proposals they are evaluating, 24% are for solar and a great majority are below utility scale. That’s a lot of solar.

In addition the United States has now developed a quite sophisticated market in raising finance for businesses who own the solar installation but lease it to the householder (they call them third party owned solar). The chart (included in this article)  illustrates that nearly $3b in finance has been raised by solar companies to roll-out leased solar systems. These companies are now sniffing around the Australian market for opportunities.

In addition a number of councils now offer a facility whereby lenders to building energy-efficiency upgrades can get repaid via council rates. Council rates are number one in the pecking order of creditors if someone goes bust, substantially reducing the risk of lending to solar projects.

4) Solar PV projects can be rolled out within months, not years. The experience from the Australian residential solar sector illustrates that solar PV can scaled-up very quickly.  While grid connection is a more involved process for commercial rooftop solar than residential, each system involves tens of kilowatts instead of just two or three. So it seems reasonable to expect that if the market conditions are conducive, there would be no physical constraints to commercial solar rolling out a few hundred megawatts in 2014, and a gigawatt in 2015.

There would still be a need for new wind farm development under such scenario, but it would buy time for wind farm projects to scale-up, and ensure enough supply to meet the Renewable Energy Target………. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/9/renewable-energy/market-could-blindside-origin-and-energy-australia#ixzz2bb1Zp0YG

August 10, 2013 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, solar