Antinuclear

China will soon dislodge the US as the world’s biggest oil importer and India will be the largest coal importer by the early 2020s as the centre of energy demand shifts ”decisively” to emerging economies, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2013 report………..

Australia, the world’s largest exporter of coking coal, will regain the title of biggest overall coal exporter by 2030. Shipments of coking and thermal coal will rise 57 per cent from 2011 levels to 410 million tonnes per year by 2035, the report said.

Carbon cost

Rising global demand, though, will come with a hefty climate cost. Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions – now about two-thirds of the total – are likely to rise by 20 per cent to 37.2 gigatonnes by 2035, according to IEA’s mid-range scenario. ”Some people talk about the ‘green growth’ in Asia. When I look at the numbers … it’s black growth,” Dr Birol said.

Those emissions will put the world on course for a long-term average temperature rise of 3.6 degrees, far above the internationally agreed 2-degree target. Without current efforts to limit emissions, temperatures would rise 5.2 degrees, Dr Birol said.

The IEA report comes as delegates from 200 nations attend a summit in Poland as one step towards settling a new climate treaty by 2015. The Abbott government has vowed to not review the current Australian goal of cutting emissions by at least 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020, and is represented at the meeting by only an ambassador rather than a minister as has been the norm.

A report by the World Meteorology Organisation last week found greenhouse gas levels continue to hit new peaks with their potential warming effect on the climate rising almost a third since 1990.

Fossil-fuel demand is being stoked by massive subsidies, particularly in the Middle East, with the global total rising $US20 billion ($21.4 billion) in 2012 to $US544 billion. That total will rise to about $US600 billion a year by 2020, Dr Birol said.

By contrast, subsidies for renewable energy rose about $US10 billion in 2012 to $US101 billion, and will reach about $US220 billion by 2035, the agency forecasts. Despite continuing to lag in support at roughly a five-to-one ratio with fossil fuels, renewable energy will account for almost half the increase in power generation to 2035, Dr Birol said.

While investment in renewable energy dropped 11 per cent in 2012 in part because of policy uncertainty, installed capacity of solar photovoltaics still rose 42 per cent and wind turbine capacity by 19 per cent, the IEA said.

After 25 years of attempts to decarbonise the energy sector, the share of fossil fuels globally remains about 83 per cent, and should drop to 75 per cent by 2035, he said  http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-golden-energy-age-for-australia-will-cost-the-world-dearly-20131112-2xel4.html#ixzz2kYQL8otj