Uranium prices set to just keep on going down, down
Japanese nuclear forecasts and other key indicators point to lower uranium prices (T.CCO) Stockhouse Editorial, 23 April 14,
The following is an excerpt from Canaccord Genuity’s Morning Coffee newsletter.
According to UxC, the uranium spot price dropped US$0.50 this week to US$32.50 a pound, the lowest price in more than eight years (lowest level since November 2005). Canaccord Genuity Base Metals analyst Gary Lampard believes that uranium prices are already close to marginal production costs, and sees minimal potential for substantially lower prices than current.
We also note a Reuters analysis, “based on questionnaires and interviews with more than a dozen experts and input from 10 nuclear operators” published on April 1, 2014, concluded, “fewer than a third, and at most about two-thirds, of the (idled) reactors will pass today’s more stringent safety checks and clear the other seismological, economic, logistical and political hurdles needed to restart,” and that of the 48 non-Fukushima Daiichi reactors, “14 will probably restart at some point, a further 17 are uncertain and 17 will probably never be switched back on.”
…. http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2014/04/23/japanese-nuclear-forecasts-and-other-key-indicators-point-to-lower-uranium#MtwE9VTmwDgfQ0h0.99
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1 This month
of the week – Disrupting War & Militarism in Oceania. Active solidarity. Radical practice.
Antinuclear 
The nuclear industry’s habit of talking up the uranium market and getting forecasts very wrong is nothing new.
Here are some notes I made over 18 months and well before Fukushima. Hope you can decipher it. Editing seems to be different from original in which what actually happened was in bold,
Predictions about the Market for Uranium
7/3/07 Advertiser Higher Price tip for yellowcake.
ABARE – Uranium price is expected to peak at about $US103/lb next year (2008). It peaked at $US138/lb in June 2007.
Prices will start to decline after next year (ie in 2009). It peaked in June 2007.
World uranium production is projected to increase at an annual rate of 9% to exceed 78,000 tonnes in 2012.
This compares with a forecast for annual consumption of 90,700 tonnes of U3O8 by 2012.
Australia’s production is expected too remain relatively steady at11-12,000tonnes per year.
7/4/07 Australian Resource Capital Research – all indications are that $US140 will be reached by Sept 2008. It peaked at $US138 in June 2007. In Sept 2008 it was $US65 and then went into decline.
12/5/07 Advertiser Crossland Uranium Mines – Uranium has just reached a selling price of $US120/lb and there is nothing on the horizon to dampen the strong market demand for the power plant fuel. U prices peaked within a month and then fell rapidly from $US138/lb to $53/lb by Oct 2008.
6/6/07 Advertiser Macquarie (Australia’s biggest securities firm) – U price could reach $US200/lb within two years (by June 2009). Tipped $US150/lb by end of 2007. U prices peaked the previous week at $US 138/lb and then fell dramatically. By end of 2007 it had fallen to $US90/lb .
SXR Uranium One (Honeymoon mine) predicted the spot price could hit $US250/lb next year (2008). It peaked at $138US/lb in June 2007 and then fell sharply to $53/lb by Oct 2008.
2/7/07 Australian Resource Capital Research – Present U spot price is $US136/lb.
Indications are for $US148/lb in the near term and $US165/lb by Sept 2008. It actually peaked at $US138/lb and by Sept 2008 it was $US65.
28/7/07 Australian U prices fell from $US136/lb in mid-July to $US 120/lb this week. Analysts said prices would continue to trade higher than in the past and most said the price drop was a correction in an upward trend. It actually peaked at $US138/lb in June 2007 and then fell sharply to $US53/lb in Oct 2008.
UBS forecast that higher demand and slow supply increases would push prices to almost $US200/lb in 2008. It actually peaked at $US138/lb in June 2007 and then fell sharply to $US53/lb in Oct 2008.
5/12/07 Advertiser ERA – The price of uranium which was about $US93/lb could surge higher. We could see prices rise even beyond where they are now. From mid Dec 2007 to mid Feb 2008 it fell from $US93/lb to $US76/lb and to $US65/lb by Sept 2008.
15/12/07 Advertiser RCR Equity Research – Forward indicators currently suggest a flat outlook for uranium of around $US90/lb to $US100/lb over the next couple of months (mid Dec2007 to mid Feb 2008). Indicators currently suggest the uranium price market expectation is $US125/lb by Sept 2008. From mid Dec 2007 to mid Feb 2008 it fell from $US93/lb to $US76/lb and to $US65/lb by Sept 2008.
18/3/08 Advertiser Far East Capital – The worst of the fall in uranium price has already happened. The price could reasonably trade within the $US60-$US90/lb for the balance of this year (2008). It would be most surprising to see it fall any lower. By Oct 2008 it had fallen to $US53/lb.
27/3/08 Advertiser Resource Capital Research – Indicators suggest the uranium market expectation is $US105/lb by September 2008. It fell to $US65/lb by September 2008.
15/7/08 Goldman Sachs JB Were – Downgraded its 2009 U price forecast from $US90/lb to $US77.5/lb. It fell to $US53 by Oct 2008
18/8/08 Australian Foster Stockbroking – Expects the spot price to be back to $US75/lb by December (2008). It fell to $US53 by Oct 2008.
8/10/08 Advertiser Resource Capital Research (RCR) quarterly Global Uranium Companies – the spot price of uranium expected to trade in the $US50-$US65/lb range in the current quarter (Oct-Dec?). On the same day (8/10/08) the spot price fell to $US49/lb.
Dennis Matthews
9th Oct 2008
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