Antinuclear

In a surprisingly optimistic forecast, Citigroup predicted that the Australian solar market would reach 14 GW by 2020. This would require a growth of 2.2 GW per year—with current capacity at 3.5 GW—to reach the predicted goal. This prediction includes both rooftop and utility-scale solar.

The biggest question mark for the prediction remains Australia’s Renewable Energy Target and how its potential scaling back could dramatically affect the solar market, though that ultimately remains to be seen.

“There is no commentary directly linked to the Australian forecasts—which are part of a global solar demand forecast—so it is unclear whether this takes into account any changes to the renewable energy targets,” CleanTechnica’s Giles Parkinson notes. “If the large scale RET stays in place, a large amount of utility-scale solar could be built in Australia—as Bloomberg New Energy Finance has predicted. Certainly, many companies such as US-based Recurrent Energy, Spain’s FRV and others have large pipelines of projects.”

The Australian market is certainly an attractive one due to its high-value natural resources. However, the scaling back of the RET could pull the rug out from under the rooftop solar industry, as subsidies and any form of aid would effectively vanish.

Still, some parts of Australia are fighting for renewable energy. South Australia has committed to a lofty goal of using 50% renewable energy by 2025. This, and other smaller state initiatives, could help drive an industry that the federal government looks to scale back—and ultimately help make Citigroup’s prediction come true.