Antinuclear

Renewable Energy Will Win the Battle Against Fossil Fuels [good graph] Sourceable, Dr Ariel Liebman, 6 Feb 15 “……There is some talk that the drop in oil price signals bad news for renewables. Under closer examination, this turns out to be an unreasonable argument.

Here’s why: firstly, the oil price drop is in a volatile short-term market, i.e. the market for near term spot delivery………..

On the other hand, the costs of renewable technologies continue to decline as manufacturers learn how to produce and install them more efficiently. This is analysed in depth in the recently released International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) report entitled Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014. The report sets out the results of a comprehensive survey of several key renewable energy technologies and how they have changed over the past five years. The technologies analysed are wind; solar PV; concentrating solar power (CSP), better known in Australia as solar thermal; hydroelectric power; biomass; and geothermal. Their findings clearly reflect what we have observed already in some cases, where solar PV costs has declined substantially .

This can be seen in the first figure. [graph in original]This figure shows the cost of solar PV in several key countries where the uptake of solar has been substantial, showing Australia now has the second cheapest cost residential solar after china. IRENA tells us that since 2008, on a global basis, residential solar has fallen by as much as 64 per cent, fully installed, while Utility Scale PV (arranged in large fields of solar panels and connected to the grid like a coal power station) fell by about 50 per cent. In fact, the most competitive utility scale solar installations to date require a price of only eight cents US per kilowattt/hour. That is only a little higher than new wind as well as a new build coal fired power station in Australia.

IRENA projects that these costs will continue to decline as the technological learning process is still continuing. The projection of technology cost decreases is a well-established field in economics supported by ample empirical data. We know that for every doubling of cumulative production of PV, costs will drop around 20 per cent. This is substantial given that there is still a lot of untapped potential around the world for solar PB to be installed. …..

The challenge for renewables in Australia is that given the way the market was designed, and the relatively cheap cost of maintaining aging fossil plant, it is likely that without specific policies such as the renewable energy target, it would be uneconomic to build new plant such as wind farms or solar farms. That is why it is important for the target to stand. Globally however the majority of the growth in energy production is in developing countries such as India, China, and Indonesia; here renewables have a distinct advantage! This is also not a problem for residential solar as it is competing not with the wholesale cost of power generation, but the total cost stack including transmission and distribution costs plus retail margins. This retail price stack seems to be constantly increasing so for now, residential PV is on a good wicket. ……….: http://sourceable.net/renewables-will-win-the-battle-against-fossil-fuels/#sthash.AdcSqSp7.dpuf