Renewables 2015: Global Status Report
The renewable energy revolution Renewables 2015: Global Status Report
The REN21 ‘Renewables 2015: Global Status Report’ details the striking growth of renewables over the past decade.1 Renewable energy provided an estimated 19.1% of global final energy consumption in 2013, and growth in capacity and generation continued to expand in 2014. Heating capacity grew at a steady pace, and the production of biofuels for transport increased.
The most rapid growth, and the largest increase in capacity, occurred in the power sector, led by wind, solar PV, and hydropower. Renewables accounted for approximately 59% of net additions to global power capacity in 2014, with significant growth in all regions of the world.
Global renewable power capacity − excluding hydro − grew eight-fold from 85 gigawatts (GW) in 2004 to 657 GW in 2014. Solar PV capacity has grown at a phenomenal rate, from 2.6 GW in 2004 to 177 GW in 2014. Over the same period wind power capacity increased from 48 GW to 370 GW.
Global renewable power capacity − including hydro − more than doubled from 800 GW in 2004 to 1,712 GW in 2014 (an estimated 27.7% of the world’s power generating capacity in 2014).
In 2014, total installed renewable capacity (including hydro) increased by 8.5%, compared to 0.6% for nuclear power. Hydro capacity rose by 3.6% while other renewables collectively grew nearly 18%.
By way of sharp contrast, nuclear power has flatlined for the past two decades. Global nuclear power capacity was 365 GW in 2004 and 376 GW in 2014, and the number of reactors declined from 443 to 439 over that period.2 Renewable capacity (including hydro) of 1,712 GW is 4.6 times greater than nuclear capacity of 376 GW.
But the capacity factor of some renewables (e.g. solar PV and wind) is lower than that of nuclear power, so how do the figures stack up when comparing electricity generation? The REN21 report states that as of the end of 2014, renewables (including hydro) supplied an estimated 22.8% of global electricity (hydro 16.6% and other renewables 6.2%). Nuclear power’s share of 10.8%3 is less than half of the electricity generation from renewables − and the gap is widening.
The REN21 report notes that the growth of renewables is being driven by declining costs and that “in many countries renewables are broadly competitive with conventional energy sources.” Further, “growth in renewable energy (and energy efficiency improvements) continues to be tempered by subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear power, particularly in developing countries.”
One final point from the REN21 report warrants mention. The report states: “Despite rising energy use, for the first time in four decades, global carbon emissions associated with energy consumption remained stable in 2014 while the global economy grew; this stabilisation has been attributed to increased penetration of renewable energy and to improvements in energy efficiency.”
- REN21 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century), 2015, ‘Renewables 2015: Global Status Report’, http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/
- International Atomic Energy Agency, ‘Nuclear Power Capacity Trend’, http://www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/WorldTrendNuclearPowerCapacity.aspx
- Mycle Schneider, April 2015, World Nuclear Industry Status Report, http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/356082/26159765/1429631468703/20150415MSC-WNISR2014-WUS-Quebec.pdf
International Energy Agency report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its ‘Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report’.1 The report notes that renewable electricity expanded at its fastest rate to date (130 gigawatts − GW) in 2014.
Further, the IEA projects 700 GW of new renewable power capacity from 2015−2020, and that renewables will account for almost two-thirds of new power generation capacity over that period. The renewable share of generation is projected to rise from 22% in 2013 to over 26% in 2020.
The IEA report states that global average costs for onshore wind generation fell by 30% from 2010−2015, and are expected to decline a further 10% by 2020. Utility-scale solar PV fell two-thirds in cost and is expected to decline another 25% by 2020.
The IEA report states that renewables are not a “luxury” that only rich countries can afford. The report states that “the geography of deployment will increasingly shift to emerging economies and developing countries, which will make up two-thirds of the renewable electricity expansion to 2020. China alone will account for nearly 40% of total renewable power capacity growth and requires almost one-third of new investment to 2020.”
Another report recently released by the IEA noted that renewable electricity generation has overtaken gas to become the second largest source of electricity worldwide, behind coal.2
Meanwhile, the Energy Watch Group has released a report detailing the IEA’s track record of grossly underestimating the growth of renewables.3 For example:
- in 2010 the IEA projected 180 GW of solar PV capacity by the year 2024 but that figure was reached in January 2015.
- the IEA’s 2002 projection for wind power capacity in the year 2030 was actually reached 20 years earlier, in 2010.
- the IEA’s 2010 projection of renewable energy’s share of global electricity generation in 2035 has already been reached … 20 years earlier!
- International Energy Agency, Oct 2015, ‘Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report’, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdf
- IEA, ‘Electricity Information 2015’, http://www.iea.org/bookshop/666-Electricity_Information_2015
Free excerpt: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Electricitytrends.pdf
Media release: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2015/august/renewable-electricity-generation-climbs-to-second-place-after-coal.html
- Matthieu Metayer, Christian Breyer and Hans-Josef Fell, 2015, ‘The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other renewable energy technologies’, http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EWG_WEO-Study_2015.pdf
Global renewables jobs boom to 7.7 million
According to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global renewable energy industry employed 7.7 million people, directly or indirectly, in 2014 – an 18% increase on the 6.5 million jobs reported in 2013. Large hydro directly employed another 1.5 million in 2014. IRENA expects the number to more than double, to around 16 million jobs, by 2030.
“Renewable energy continues to assert itself as a major global employer, generating strong economic and social benefits worldwide,” said IRENA Director-General Adnan Amin. “This increase is being driven, in part, by declining renewable energy technology costs, which creates more jobs in installation, operations and maintenance.”
According to the IRENA report, solar PV was the largest renewable energy employer in 2014, with 2.5 million jobs worldwide, followed by liquid biofuels (1.8 million), wind (1 million), biomass (822,000), solar heating/cooling (764,000), biogas (381,000), small hydro (209,000), and geothermal (154,000).
China was the world’s largest renewable energy employer in 2014, with 3.4 million jobs.
IRENA, 19 May 2015, ‘Renewable Energy and Jobs: Annual Review 2015’,
Summary: http://www.irena.org/News/Description.aspx?NType=A&mnu=cat&PriMenuID=16&CatID=84&News_ID=407
Full report:
http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2015.pdf
Renewable energy investment
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global investment in renewables jumped 16% in 2014 to US$310 billion, five times the tally of a decade earlier. Solar investments accounted for almost half the total. China led the way with renewable investments increasing almost one-third to US$89.5 billion, while US investment gained 8% to US$51.8 billion.
http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/rebound-clean-energy-investment-2014-beats-expectations/
Record solar growth
A record amount of solar power was added to the world’s grids in 2014, pushing total capacity to 100 times the level it was in the year 2000.1,2 Around 40 gigawatts was installed in 2014, raising the total installed capacity to 178 gigawatts (GW). China (10.6 GW), Japan (9.7 GW) and the US (6.5 GW) were the leaders.
The growth is detailed in SolarPower Europe’s Global Market Outlook. Michael Schmela, executive adviser to SolarPower Europe, noted that in 2014 renewables produced more power than nuclear in Europe for the first time in decades. The gap between renewables and nuclear in Europe is certain to grow.
Solar Power Europe, 2015, ‘Global Market Outlook for Solar Power: 2015− 2019’, http://www.solarpowereurope.org/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/Publications/Global_Market_Outlook_2015_-2019_lr_v23.pdf
Arthur Neslen, 10 June 2015, ‘Record boost in new solar power continues massive industry growth’, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/09/record-boost-in-new-solar-power-continues-massive-industry-growth
Solar Outlook report
Deutsche Bank has released its 2015 Solar Outlook report. Deutsche Bank states: “Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs anywhere between US$0.13 and US$0.23/kWh today, well below retail price of electricity in many markets globally. The economics of solar have improved significantly due to the reduction in solar panel costs, financing costs and balance of system costs. We expect solar system costs to decrease 5-15% annually over the next 3+ years which could result in grid parity within ~50% of the target markets. If global electricity prices were to increase at 3% per year and cost reduction occurred at 5-15% CAGR [compound annual growth rate], solar would achieve grid parity in an additional ~30% of target markets globally. We believe the cumulative incremental total available market for solar is currently around ~140GW/year and could potentially increase to ~260GW/year over the next 5 years as solar achieves grid parity in more markets globally and electric capacity needs increase.”
Deutsche Bank, 13 Jan 2015, ‘Deutsche Bank’s 2015 solar outlook: accelerating investment and cost competitiveness’, http://www.db.com/cr/en/concrete-deutsche-banks-2015-solar-outlook.htm
Renewable energy costs reaching grid parity
Maturing clean energy technologies, such as onshore wind, solar power and biomass, are reaching grid parity in many parts of the world regardless of whether or not they receive subsidies, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has revealed.1
IRENA states: “The competitiveness of renewable power generation technologies continued improving in 2013 and 2014, reaching historic levels. Biomass for power, hydropower, geothermal and onshore wind can all provide electricity competitively against fossil fuel-fired power generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power has also become increasingly competitive, with its levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) at utility scale falling by half in four years.”
IRENA estimates fossil-fuelled power plants produce power at between US$0.07−0.19/kWh when environmental and health costs of carbon emissions and other forms of pollution are taken into account.
IRENA, January 2014, ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014’, http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=494
Economics of renewables vs. nuclear power
A report commissioned by the Vienna Ombuds-Office for Environmental Protection compares the economics of renewables and nuclear power.4 Five different renewable technologies were analysed: biomass, onshore and offshore wind, small-scale hydropower plants and solar photovoltaics. Calculations were conducted for five different EU Member states (UK, Poland, Germany, France and the Czech Republic) and the EU-28 overall.
The report concludes: “Generating electricity from a variety of renewable sources is more economical than using nuclear power; this is clearly shown by the model-based assessment of future developments up to 2050. Across the EU end consumers can save up to 37% on their electricity costs – in some Member States even up to 74% – when plans to build nuclear power plants are shelved in favour of renewables. In order to achieve these goals it is vital that we act quickly, but with care, to create the infrastructure and regulatory framework this requires, or to adapt that which already exists.”
Austrian Institute of Ecology / e-think, Nov 2014, ‘Renewable Energies versus Nuclear Power: Comparing Financial Support’, http://www.ecology.at/wua_erneuerbarevskernenergie.htm
Greenpeace: Energy [R]evolution report
Greenpeace has released the latest edition of its Energy [R]evolution series, first produced in 2005. The 364-page report has been produced by numerous experts and institutions.1
The Energy [R]evolution reports have an impressive track record. Energy consulting firm Meister Consultants Group noted in March 2015: “Over the past 15 years, a number of predictions − by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, and others − have been made about the future of renewable energy growth. Almost every one of these predictions has underestimated the scale of actual growth experienced by the wind and solar markets. Only the most aggressive growth projections, such as Greenpeace’s Energy [R]evolution scenarios, have been close to accurate.”2
The Energy [R]evolution provides mid-term projections but the focus of the report is much more ambitious and much less certain − mapping out a pathway to 100% renewable energy worldwide by 2050.
The report proposes a phase-out of fossil fuels starting with lignite by 2035, followed by coal (2045), then oil and then finally gas (2050). As with fossil fuels, nuclear power is also phased out “as fast as technically and economically possible”.
The report details the extraordinary growth of renewables over the past decade, with 783 GW of new renewable power generation capacity installed from 2005 to 2014. However “the overall transition away from fossil and nuclear fuels to renewables is far too slow to combat dangerous climate change.” Over the past decade almost as much new coal capacity (750 GW) has been installed as renewables. Hence the need for coordinated plans and political commitment to rapidly replace dirty energy sources with renewables.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the world would stay within the IPCC’s 1,000 gigatonne “carbon budget” − total carbon emissions between 2012 and 2050 would be 744 gigatonnes in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and 667 gigatonnes in an ‘Advanced’ Energy [R]evolution scenario. The report envisages global emissions peaking at the end of this decade, a return to 1990 levels in 2030, a 60% reduction by 2040 and near-zero emissions in 2050 (excluding some non-energy sectors such as steel production).
The share of electricity generated by renewables doubles from 21% to 42% by 2030 under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, then expands to 72% in 2040 and 100% in 2050. Measures proposed to incorporate fluctuating power sources into reliable electricity systems include smart grids, demand side management, and energy storage.
Renewables meet around 21% of current global energy demand for heating − almost all of it biomass. In the Energy [R]evolution scenarios, energy efficiency measures reduce growing demand for heating by 33% in 2050, with the use of fossil fuels for heating replaced by a portfolio of renewable heating (solar collectors, geothermal, renewable energy-produced hydrogen) and biomass.
Decarbonising transport can largely be achieved by growing and electrifying public transport systems, as well as encouraging the uptake of ever-improving electric vehicles. Aviation and shipping are particularly difficult, but planes and ships could be powered using biofuels, hydrogen and synthetic fuels produced using electricity. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, just over half of road transport energy demand is met by electricity by 2050.
- Greenpeace International, September 2015, ‘Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable world energy outlook 2015’, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/Campaign-reports/Climate-Reports/Energy-Revolution-2015/
- Meister Consultants Group, 16 March 2015, Renewable Energy Revolution, http://www.mc-group.com/the-renewable-energy-revolution/
Global Apollo Program
An coalition of prominent people has come together to ask the world’s governments to find US$15 billion per annum to invest in scientific research and development dedicated to the goal of making renewable energy cheaper than coal within 10 years.
The coalition includes
- a former chief executive of oil company BP,
- BBC documentary maker and naturalist David Attenborough,
- a former UK minister for energy,
- one of the world’s leading economists on the study of what determines our happiness,
- a leading climate scientist,
- the former head of the UK’s major business lobby group
- the chief executive of consumer products company Unilever,
- former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern
- and other prominent scientists and economists
The coalition draws its inspiration from President John Kennedy’s Apollo Program which targeted putting a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth within the decade. They note that publicly-funded renewable energy R&D has been “starved” of funding, making up under 2% of the total of publicly funded research and development.
http://www.globalapolloprogram.org
Global renewable energy knowledge hub
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has launched ‘REsource’ − an online platform that enables users to easily find country-specific data, create customized charts and graphs, and compare countries on metrics like renewable energy use and deployment. It also provides information on renewable energy market statistics, potentials, policies, finance, costs, benefits, innovations, education and other topics.
Renewable energy potential − France, China, India
A report by ADEME, a French government agency under the Ministries of Ecology and Research, shows that a 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050 in France is feasible and would cost hardly any more than a mix of 50% nuclear, 40% renewables, and 10% fossil fuels (primarily gas).1
The 119-page report is the result of 14 months of detailed research, and examines the feasibility and costs of several different models ranging from a 40% reliance on renewables by 2050 up to 100% reliance.
For an all-renewables scenario, the report proposes an ideal electricity mix: 63% from wind, 17% from solar, 13% from hydro and 7% from renewable thermal sources (including geothermal energy).
To match supply and demand (and deal with intermittency), the report proposes demand management (electric cars, for example, charging and discharging), import/export, short-term storage (batteries and compressed air installations, for example), pumped-storage hydro, and power-to-gas-to-power technologies (hydrogen/methane).
The report estimates that the electricity production cost would be 119 euros per megawatt-hour in the all-renewables scenario, compared with a near-identical figure of 117 euros per MWh with a mix of 50% nuclear, 40% renewables, and 10% fossil fuels. The current average cost is 91 euros per MWh.
Damien Siess, ADEME’s deputy director for production and sustainable energy, noted that renewable energy sources are currently more expensive than nuclear, but the cost of renewables is falling while the cost of nuclear is increasing, mainly because of the safety standards required for new reactors such as the EPR.
China could get 85% of its electricity and 60% of total energy from renewables by 2050, according to government agencies. A rapid rollout of wind, solar and bioenergy is technologically and economically feasible, a report led by the China National Renewable Energy Centre claims.2 In a “high renewable” scenario, the country’s coal use would peak in 2020 and its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.4
India: A detailed report by WWF-India and The Energy and Resources Institute maps out how India could generate as much as 90% of total primary energy from renewables by 2050.3 The study develops and evaluates a potential growth path involving large deployment of renewables − especially solar, wind and hydro − for electricity generation, with second-generation and algal biofuels meeting the additional demands of the transport sector. It argues that aggressive efficiency improvements also have large potential and could bring in savings of the order of 59% by 2050.
- Full report (in French):
L’Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (ADEME), 2015, ‘Vers un mix électrique 100% renouvelable en 2050’,
http://www.ademe.fr/sites/default/files/assets/documents/rapport100enr_comite.pdf
http://fr.scribd.com/doc/261245927/le-rapport-100-energies-renouvelables
English language summary:
Terje Osmundsen, 20 April 2015, http://www.energypost.eu/french-government-study-95-renewable-power-mix-cheaper-nuclear-gas/
- Report: ‘China high renewables 2050 roadmap − summary’, http://www.scribd.com/doc/262740831/China-high-renewables-2050-roadmap-summary
Article: Megan Darby, 22 April 2015, ‘China’s electricity could go 85% renewable by 2050 – study’, http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/22/chinas-electricity-could-go-85-renewable-by-2050-study/
- WWF India and The Energy and Resources Institute, 2013, ‘The Energy Report − India 100% Renewable Energy by 2050’, http://www.wwfindia.org/news_facts/?10261
Summary: Emma Fitzpatrick, 17 Jan 2014, ‘Even India could reach nearly 100% renewables by 2051’, http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/even-india-could-reach-nearly-100-renewables-by-2051-2051
Twin Pillars: Energy efficiency and renewables
A June 2015 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) compares an ‘INDC’ scenario, based on ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ nominated by (some) countries in advance of the UN climate conference in December 2015, with a more ambitious ‘Bridge Scenario’.1 Energy efficiency does much of the heavy lifting in reducing energy-related greenhouse emissions in the Bridge Scenario compared to the INDC scenario. Energy efficiency accounts for 49% of the reduction by 2030, renewables 17%, upstream methane reductions 15%, fossil-fuel subsidy reform 10%, and reducing inefficient coal 9%.
The IEA report’s comments on renewables are worth noting. In the Bridge Scenario, 60% of new power capacity between 2015 and 2030 comes from renewables (23% wind, 17% solar PV, 14% hydro, 6% other renewables) compared to just 6% for nuclear, with fossil fuels accounting for the remaining 34%. In the Bridge Scenario, nuclear accounts for 13% of global power capacity in 2030, almost three times lower than renewables’ share of 37% (hydro 18%, wind 9%, solar PV, 4%, bioenergy 4%, geothermal 1%, and concentrated solar power 1%).
In the scenario presented in the International Energy Agency’s ‘World Energy Outlook 2014’, which envisages modest efforts to reduce emissions, oil demand in 2040 would be 22% higher without the cumulative impact of energy efficiency measures, gas demand 17% higher and coal demand 15% higher.2 The report states: “Beyond cutting energy use, energy efficiency lowers energy bills, improves trade balances and cuts CO2 emissions. Improved energy efficiency compared with today reduces oil and gas import bills for the five largest energy-importing regions by almost $1 trillion in 2040.”
The REN21 report3 notes that renewables and energy efficiency are twin pillars of a sustainable energy future − enabling applications that otherwise might not be technically or economically practical and rendering the outcome greater than the sum of the parts. The report provides examples of the synergies:
- Synergies for greater system benefits. Efficient building systems and designs, combined with on-site renewable energy generation, reduce end-use energy demand, electrical grid congestion and losses, and the monetary and energy expenditures associated with fuel transportation.
- Synergies for greater renewable energy share in the energy mix. Improving end-use efficiency and increasing use of on-site renewables reduce primary energy demand. With lower end-use energy requirements, the opportunity increases for renewable energy sources of low energy density to meet full energy-service needs. Targets to increase the share of renewables in total energy consumption can be achieved through both increasing the amount of renewable energy and reducing total energy consumption.
- Synergies for greater investment in renewables and efficiency. Improvements in end-use energy efficiency reduce the cost of delivering end-use services by renewable energy, and the money saved through efficiency can help finance additional efficiency improvements and/or deployment of renewable energy technologies. These synergies exist across numerous sectors, from buildings and electrical services to transportation and industry.
A 2011 study by University of Cambridge academics concluded that a whopping 73% of global energy use could be saved by practically achievable energy efficiency and conservation measures.4 Julian Allwood, one of the authors of the study, said: “We think it’s pretty unlikely that we’ll find a good response to the threat of global warming on the supply side alone. But if we can make a serious reduction in our demand for energy, then all the options look more realistic.”5
- International Energy Agency, June 2015, ‘World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015: Energy and Climate Change’, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2015-special-report-energy-climate-change.html
- International Energy Agency, ‘World Energy Outlook 2014’, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014
- REN21 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century), 2015, ‘Renewables 2015: Global Status Report’, http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/
- Jonathan M. Cullen, Julian M. Allwood, and Edward H. Borgstein, Jan 2011, ‘Reducing Energy Demand: What Are the Practical Limits?’, Environmental Science and Technology, 45 (4), pp 1711–1718, http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es102641n
- Helen Knight, 26 Jan 2011, ‘Efficiency could cut world energy use over 70 per cent’, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20037-efficiency-could-cut-world-energy-use-over-70-per-cent.html
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