World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015′ (WNISR) has been released.
[from Steve Kidd – a pro nuclear writer!] We have learned one thing for certain: it’s a lot easier to shut a reactor down than to build a new one. There are alternatives to nuclear for power generation and the competition is getting continuously stiffer.
“Hence well-researched and articulate critiques against the concept of any nuclear growth … such as the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report, are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
“The optimistic view that nuclear will eventually take up the substantial place allocated for it in energy scenarios that mitigate climate change … holds increasingly little water.”
Nuclear power’s long farewell? Jim Green, Chain Reaction #125, Nov 2015. The ‘World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015’ (WNISR) has been released.1 These annual reports provide a vast amount of useful information about the global nuclear industry and useful summaries of the development of renewable energy. Here are the key findings.
Reactor operation. 31 countries operate nuclear power plants. A total of 391 reactors have a combined installed capacity of 337 gigawatts. The total of 391 reactors excludes the 42 reactors in Japan that have been shut down, only some of which will restart (two restarted in mid-2015). Even including all the Japanese reactors, there are fewer reactors than there were a decade ago.
Industry in decline: The 391 operating reactors are 47 fewer than the 2002 peak of 438, while the total installed capacity peaked in 2010 at 367 GW and has since declined by 8% to 337 GW. Annual nuclear electricity generation reached 2,410 terrawatt-hours (TWh) in 2014 − a 2.2% increase over the previous year, but 9.4% below the historic peak in 2006.
Share in power mix. The nuclear share of the world’s power generation remained stable over the past three years, with 10.8% in 2014 after declining steadily from a historic peak of 17.6% in 1996. Nuclear power’s share of global commercial primary energy production also remained stable at 4.4%, the lowest level since 1984.
Reactor age. The mean age of the world operating nuclear reactor fleet continues to rise, and by mid-2015 stood at 28.8 years. Over half of the total, or 199 reactors, have operated for more than 30 years, including 54 that have run for over 40 years. One third (33) of the US reactors have operated for more than 40 years.
Lifetime projections. If all currently operating reactors were shut down at the end of a 40-year lifetime, by 2020 the number of reactors would be 19 below the number at the end of 2014. In the following decade to 2030, 188 units (178 GW) would have to be replaced − five times the number of startups achieved over the past decade. (The International Energy Agency predicts a “wave of retirements” − almost 200 reactor shut downs by 2040.)
Construction delays. As in previous years, 14 countries are currently building nuclear power plants. As of July 2015, 62 reactors were under construction. Almost 40% of the projects (24) are in China. All of the reactors under construction in 10 out of 14 countries have experienced delays, mostly year-long. At least three-quarters (47) of all reactors under construction worldwide are delayed. Five reactors have been listed as “under construction” for more than 30 years.
Construction starts. In 2014, construction began on three reactors, one each in Argentina, Belarus, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Construction starts in the world peaked in 1976 at 44. In the 4.5 years from 1 January 2011 and 1 July 2015, first concrete was poured for 26 new plants worldwide − fewer than in a single year in the 1970s.
Construction cancellations. Between 1977 and 2015, a total of 92 (one in eight) of all construction sites were abandoned or suspended in 18 countries in various stages of advancement.
Newcomer program delays. Only two newcomer countries are actually building reactors − Belarus and the UAE.
Generation III Delays. Twenty-nine years after the Chernobyl disaster, none of the next-generation or so-called Generation III+ reactors has entered service, with construction projects in Finland and France many years behind schedule. Of 18 reactors of Generation III+ design (eight Westinghouse AP1000, six Rosatom AES-2006, four AREVA EPR), 16 are delayed by between two and nine years.
Installed capacity. In 2014 almost half (49%) of the added electricity generating capacity was new renewables (excluding large hydro), including 49 GW for new wind power and 46 GW of solar photovoltaics. Since 2000, wind added 355 GW and solar 179 GW − respectively 18 and 9 times more than nuclear with 20 GW.
Electricity generation. Brazil, China, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Spain − a list that includes three of the world’s four largest economies − now all generate more electricity from non-hydro renewables than from nuclear power. These eight countries represent more than three billion people or 45% of the world’s population.
There is much more of interest in the WNISR report, including chapters on new reactors types (especially small modular reactors) and the Fukushima disaster.
It’s a lot easier to shut a reactor down …
Steve Kidd, an independent consultant and economist who worked for the World Nuclear Association for 17 years, recently noted in a trade magazine:
“Looking forward, despite the many forecasts that point to sustained growth of nuclear, there will be a substantial number of reactor closures. … We have learned one thing for certain: it’s a lot easier to shut a reactor down than to build a new one. There are alternatives to nuclear for power generation and the competition is getting continuously stiffer.
“Hence well-researched and articulate critiques against the concept of any nuclear growth … such as the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report, are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The combination of aging operating reactors, delayed construction plans combined with escalating costs of new units and competition from renewable power technologies is becoming a compelling story to any lay reader. …
“Whether the number of reactor start-ups exceeds the number of closures depends on China. Over the next few years, the number of start-ups (five to six per annum) combined with Japanese reactors returning to service should certainly outweigh the number of closures. But in the 2020s things get more unpredictable for both closures and start-ups. Most people’s expectations of Chinese growth in nuclear have been cut back substantially. … Russia’s domestic program has also slowed, while many of the claimed reactor export deals are little more than statements of intent. India remains something of an enigma, but it shows few signs of overcoming general problems in completing major infrastructure projects, including local land rights and volatile public opinion.”
“The optimistic view that nuclear will eventually take up the substantial place allocated for it in energy scenarios that mitigate climate change … holds increasingly little water.”
IAEA report
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has produced the 35th edition of its publication, ‘Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050’.2 The IAEA now projects nuclear capacity growth by between 2.4% and 68% from 2014 to 2030 (average annual capacity growth of 0.1−3.3%).
Historically, the IAEA’s ‘high’ estimates have been ridiculous and even its ‘low’ estimates tend to be too high − in which case the pattern of stagnation that has prevailed for the past two decades will likely prevail for the next two.
To its credit, the IAEA has published data demonstrating its habit of overestimating nuclear power growth.3 For example:
- In 1985, the IAEA’s high estimate was 702 GW capacity in the year 2000, but actual capacity in 2000 was 350 GW (50% of the estimate).
- In 1990, the IAEA’s high estimate was 528 GW capacity in the year 2005, but actual capacity in 2005 was 368 GW (70% of the estimate).
Even the IAEA’s ‘low’ forecasts are too high − by 13% on average. For example:
- In 1985, the IAEA’s ‘low’ estimate was 502 GW capacity in the year 2000, but actual capacity in 2000 was 350 GW (70% of the estimate).
- In 1990, the IAEA’s ‘low’ estimate was 450 GW capacity in the year 2005, but actual capacity in 2005 was 368 GW (82% of the estimate).
The IAEA’s current ‘low’ estimate for 2030 (385 GW) is down 29.5% from the pre-Fukushima, 2010 ‘low’ estimate of 546 GW. The high estimate (632 GW) is down 21% from the pre-Fukushima, 2010 high estimate of 803 GW.
References:
- Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al., July 2015, ‘World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015’, www.worldnuclearreport.org/-2015-.html
- IAEA, 2015, ‘Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050’,
www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/rds1-35web.pdf
- IAEA, 2007, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power: Developments and Projections − 25 Years Past and Future’, tables 33 and 34, p.56, www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf/pub1304_web.pdf
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