Antinuclear

The modelling, known as SIREN, looks at the West Australian grid, known as the South West Interconnected System, and shows that an electricity system with 85 per cent renewable energy will be cheaper than “business as usual” – an average of $124/MWh compared to $127/MWh – and around the same price as current costs.

A system with 91 per cent renewable energy penetration would be slightly higher ($136/MWh), while three separate scenarios for 100 per cent renewable energy would be more expensive (ranging from $157/MWh to $164/MWh).

The modelling assumed that there will be 6,000MW of wind and 3,000MW of solar PV in the high renewables scenarios, and 5,000MW of wind and 2,000MW of solar PV in the 100 per cent renewable energy scenarios. The difference in the 100 per cent renewables scenario is the addition of 1.2GW of solar thermal and storage.

The SIREN modelling template will soon be used for an updated assessment and costing of the main grid in Australia, the National Electricity Market. “We intend to use this to lobby government and show (utilities) Western power and Synergy what we have found, and what they can do,” says Ben Rose, one of the authors.

Some may quibble with the fact that it compares new investment in each scenario, but the fact remains that most of the current generation in W.A., particularly its coal assets – and indeed the rest of Australia – is reaching its used-by date and will need to be replaced by 2030. Yet, says Rose, few politicians are addressing this issue.

The results are also based on relatively conservative technology cost assessments included in the AETA survey done by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics.

Many of these costs, particularly the solar thermal costs used in the 100 per cent renewable energy scenarios, are expected to come down quickly, and well below the 2025 forecasts included by AETA. Most of the technologies are already cheaper than those forecasts……….http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/new-modelling-shows-renewable-based-system-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-55032