Northern Australia can expect more tropical cyclones this year

More tropical cyclones likely for Australia this year: here’s why The Conversation, Paul Gregory BOM, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Andrew B. Watkins Manager of Climate Prediction Services, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Yuri Kuleshov Climatologist, National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology October 17, 2016 Northern Australia is likely to experience an average or above-average number of tropical cyclones this summer, according to the Bureau’s annual Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook, issued last week. Given current climate drivers, that means we’re likely to see 11 or more tropical cyclones in the Australian region, and typically around four of those will cross the coastline.

The season will almost certainly be more active than the last. And that means it’s time to prepare, because the likelihood of damage from a tropical cyclone is high in any season……..

As this season starts, ENSO is neutral. But a La Niña “watch” is current, meaning a La Niña certainly cannot be ruled out before the end of the year.

The latest observations show the Pacific Ocean has several indicators that have exceeded La Niña thresholds. El Niño and La Niña develop slowly, and likewise their impacts don’t appear suddenly.

With warmer water around Australia’s northern coastline – a classic La Niña-like pattern – the odds rise of an above-average tropical cyclone season. https://theconversation.com/more-tropical-cyclones-likely-for-australia-this-year-heres-why-66992

October 16, 2016 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | General News

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