Antinuclear

Solar now costs less than $30/MWh in many major economies, wind energy is about the same. As Bloomberg recently pointed out, this makes them cheaper than any new generation, and cheaper than much existing generation.

Battery storage costs have fallen 50 per cent in 12 months, and energy experts are freely talking about new energy systems with concepts such as localised and shared energy, zero marginal costs, and even “free energy.” Electric vehicles, inspired by Tesla, are also on the rise with major car makers investing billions in new electric models.

The other major force is political – funded, aided and abetted by the very fossil fuel interests threatened by renewables, storage and EVs. They’ve hit the jack-pot in Washington, and when Donald Trump moves into the White House on January 20, he will be accompanied by a cabinet notable for its collection of climate change deniers, fossil fuel lobbyists and billionaires. And with the Exxon Mobil CEO and chairman as secretary of state.

It is unthinkable, and it is potentially dangerous, but there it is. Clean energy technology will never have faced greater politics headwinds than Trump’s America……

This will have an impact on Australia too. Australia finds itself at the cutting edge of this energy transition, with a huge natural and technological advantage, and even greater motivation (enormous electricity costs and a dirty inefficient grid).

But it also boasts a powerful fossil fuel incumbency. The Trump administration will encourage the climate deniers and vested interests within the ruling Coalition, and there are many.

The Frydenberg Review of climate change policies should be promising, but it has already been hamstrung by Malcolm Turnbull’s subservience to the Far Right.

The only hope will be that the review by chief scientist Alan Finkel will provide some clarity, and may actually be read by the government. Just how long will it take to sink in?……….

Solar and wind costs will continue to fall. In Australia, that could be significant as the backlog in large-scale renewables projects finally breaks: expect to see numerous large-scale solar projects, many of them displacing second tier wind developments.

“Merchant” models will be the vogue for a while, before the big retailers wake up and lock in more projects on contract, particularly as consumers rail against the soaring cost of the “green energy” component of their bill, caused only by the retailers’ own failure to invest.

But it’s not the technology that is the major concern, it is the politics, and the potential for powerful interests to bamboozle politicians and encourage them to make dumb decisions about energy choices – or in the case of the Australian federal government, no decision at all.

The Finkel review will be critical to cut through the myth-making of technology deniers and myth-makers. But it will likely take time to sink in, presuming that anyone in the Coalition actually reads it.

The mainstream media could play a constructive role, but there is not much hope there. They seem completely enthralled by incumbents and completely uninterested in the potential of new technologies.

It is disconcerting enough that most energy market and pricing regulators seem to think that their primary role is to protect the incumbent over the consumer – see the way they protect network revenue, how they demonise renewable incentives as a “transfer of wealth from the generators to the consumers…….. http://reneweconomy.com.au/will-2017-be-last-stand-of-clean-energy-technology-deniers-87502/