Weather experts predict more heat and fire risk coming, though fewer cyclones
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Australia could see fewer cyclones, but more heat and fire risk in coming months The Conversation, Jonathan Pollock, Climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew B. Watkins, Head of Long-range Forecasts, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Catherine Ganter Senior Climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Paul Gregoryn, BOM, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, October 14, 2019
Northern Australia is likely to see fewer cyclones than usual this season, but hot, dry weather will increase the risk of fire and heatwaves across eastern and southern Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology today released its forecast for the tropical cyclone season, which officially runs from November 1 to April 30.Also published today is the October to April Severe Weather Outlook, which examines the risk of other weather extremes like flooding, heatwaves and bushfires. Warmer oceans means more cyclones On average, 11 tropical cyclones form each season in the Australian region. Around four of those cross the coast. The total number each season is roughly related to how much cooler or warmer than average the tropical oceans near Australia are during the cyclone season……..
when ENSO is neutral, there is little push towards above or below average numbers of cyclones. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been ENSO-neutral since April and are likely to stay neutral until at least February 2020. However, some tropical patterns are El Niño-like, including higher-than-average air pressure at Darwin. This may be related to the current record-strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole – another of Australia’s major climate drivers – and the cooler waters surrounding northern Australia. The neutral ENSO phase alongside higher-than-average air pressure over northern Australia means we expect fewer-than-average tropical cyclones in the Australian region this season. The bureau’s Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook model predicts a 65% chance of fewer-than-average cyclones………. Other severe weatherWhile cyclones are one of the key concerns during the coming months, the summer months also bring the threat of several other forms of severe weather, including bushfires, heatwaves and flooding rain. With dry soils inland, and hence little moisture available to cool the air, and a forecast for clear skies and warmer days, there is an increased chance that heat will build up over central Australia during the spring and summer months. This increases the chance of heatwaves across eastern and southern Australia when that hot air is drawn towards the coast by passing weather systems.
Likewise, the dry landscape and the chance of extreme heat also raise the risk of more bushfires throughout similar parts of Australia, especially on windy days. And with fewer natural firebreaks such as full rivers and streams, even greater care is needed in some areas. Widespread floods are less likely this season……..https://theconversation.com/australia-could-see-fewer-cyclones-but-more-heat-and-fire-risk-in-coming-months-125139 |
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