Antinuclear

‘We need a serious conversation’: River flows could decline 40% in Australia’s foodbowl, SMH, by Mike Foley, March 8, 2020 River flows in Australia’s food bowl, the Murray Darling Basin, will decline by as much as 40 per cent over the next 50 years under the current trajectory of global warming, one of Australia’s top hydrologists has warned.Internationally recognised hydrologist Francis Chiew, a CSIRO research leader and co-author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said Australia was the driest and among the most water-dependent countries in the world.

“We have the driest inhabited continent, we’ve got the least water by far per square kilometres of land surface,” Dr Chiew said.

“Australia actually has among the world’s highest per capita water use – comparable to Asia and the Americas.”

Dr Chiew said the upper range forecast is for a 40 per cent decline in the volume of water flowing down rivers and a “conservative” forecast sees Australian river flows declining 20 per cent.

His forecast is based on global average temperatures increasing by 2 degrees, which is the target of the international emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement. The IPCC puts the current trajectory of warming, without increasing emissions reduction, at more than 3 degrees.

The modelling includes a range of scenarios.

“There is high confidence and strong evidence of declining water availability. But there’s less confidence in how much and by when,” he said………

Dr Chiew urged decision makers to grapple with the hard topics now.

“We have got to have a serious conversation about what we want to do under climate change,” he said. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/we-need-a-serious-conversation-river-flows-could-decline-40-percent-in-australia-s-foodbowl-20200304-p546t4.html