Nuclear goes backwards, again, as wind and solar enjoy another year of record growth
Jim Green 21 January 2024, https://reneweconomy.com.au/nuclear-goes-backwards-again-as-wind-and-solar-enjoy-another-year-of-record-growth/
The nuclear renaissance of the late-2000s was a bust due to the Fukushima disaster and catastrophic cost overruns with reactor projects. The latest renaissance is heading the same way, i.e. nowhere. Nuclear power went backwards last year.
There were five reactor start-ups and five permanent closures in 2023 with a net loss of 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. There were just six reactor construction starts in 2023, five of them in China.
Due to the ageing of the reactor fleet, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) anticipates the closure of 10 reactors (10 GW) per year from 2018 to 2050.
Thus the industry needs an annual average of 10 reactor construction starts, and 10 reactor startups (grid connections), just to maintain its current output. Over the past decade (2014-23), construction starts have averaged 6.1 and reactor startups have averaged 6.7.
The number of operable power reactors is 407 to 413 depending on the definition of operability, well down from the 2002 peak of 438.
Nuclear power’s share of global electricity generation has fallen to 9.2 percent, its lowest share in four decades and little more than half of its peak of 17.5 percent in 1996.
Over the two decades 2004-2023, there were 102 power reactor startups and 104 closures worldwide: 49 startups in China with no closures; and a net decline of 51 reactors in the rest of the world.
In China, there were five reactor construction starts in 2023 and just one reactor startup. Put another way, there was just one reactor construction start outside China in 2023. So much for the hype about a new nuclear renaissance.
Small modular reactors and ‘advanced’ nuclear power
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are the subject of endless hype but there were no SMR construction starts or startups last year. The biggest SMR news in 2023 was NuScale Power’s decision to abandon its flagship project in Idaho despite securing astronomical subsidies amounting to around US$4 billion (A$6.1 billion) from the US government.
The pro-nuclear Breakthrough Institute noted in a November 2023 article that efforts to commercialise a new generation of ‘advanced’ nuclear reactors “are simply not on track” and it warned nuclear advocates not to “whistle past this graveyard”:
It wrote:
“The NuScale announcement follows several other setbacks for advanced reactors. Last month, X-Energy, another promising SMR company, announced that it was canceling plans to go public. This week, it was forced to lay off about 100 staff.
“In early 2022, Oklo’s first license application was summarily rejected by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission before the agency had even commenced a technical review of Oklo’s Aurora reactor.
The nuclear renaissance of the late-2000s was a bust due to the Fukushima disaster and catastrophic cost overruns with reactor projects. The latest renaissance is heading the same way, i.e. nowhere. Nuclear power went backwards last year.
There were five reactor start-ups and five permanent closures in 2023 with a net loss of 1.7 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. There were just six reactor construction starts in 2023, five of them in China.
Due to the ageing of the reactor fleet, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) anticipates the closure of 10 reactors (10 GW) per year from 2018 to 2050.
Thus the industry needs an annual average of 10 reactor construction starts, and 10 reactor startups (grid connections), just to maintain its current output. Over the past decade (2014-23), construction starts have averaged 6.1 and reactor startups have averaged 6.7.
The number of operable power reactors is 407 to 413 depending on the definition of operability, well down from the 2002 peak of 438.
Nuclear power’s share of global electricity generation has fallen to 9.2 percent, its lowest share in four decades and little more than half of its peak of 17.5 percent in 1996.
Over the two decades 2004-2023, there were 102 power reactor startups and 104 closures worldwide: 49 startups in China with no closures; and a net decline of 51 reactors in the rest of the world.
In China, there were five reactor construction starts in 2023 and just one reactor startup. Put another way, there was just one reactor construction start outside China in 2023. So much for the hype about a new nuclear renaissance.
Nuclear decline vs. record renewables growth
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just released its ‘Renewables 2023’ report and it makes for a striking contrast with the nuclear industry’s malaise.
Nuclear power suffered a net loss of 1.7 GW capacity in 2023, whereas renewable capacity additions amounted to a record 507 GW, almost 50 percent higher than 2022. This is the 22nd year in a row that renewable capacity additions set a new record, the IEA states. Solar PV alone accounted for three-quarters of renewable capacity additions worldwide in 2023.
Nuclear power accounts for a declining share of share of global electricity generation (currently 9.2 percent) whereas renewables have grown to 30.2 percent. The IEA expects renewables to reach 42 percent by 2028 thanks to a projected 3,700 GW of new capacity over the next five years in the IEA’s ‘main case’.
The IEA states that the world is on course to add more renewable capacity in the next five years than has been installed since the first commercial renewable energy power plant was built more than 100 years ago.
Solar and wind combined have already surpassed nuclear power generation and the IEA notes that over the next five years, several other milestones will likely be achieved:
— In 2025, renewables surpass coal-fired electricity generation to become the largest source of electricity generation
— In 2025, wind surpasses nuclear electricity generation
— In 2026, solar PV surpasses nuclear electricity generation
— In 2028, renewable energy sources account for over 42 percent of global electricity generation, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25 percent
Tripling renewables
The IEA states in its ‘Renewables 2023’ report that:
“Prior to the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, the International Energy Agency (IEA) urged governments to support five pillars for action by 2030, among them the goal of tripling global renewable power capacity. Several of the IEA priorities were reflected in the Global Stocktake text agreed by the 198 governments at COP28, including the goals of tripling renewables and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements every year to 2030. Tripling global renewable capacity in the power sector from 2022 levels by 2030 would take it above 11 000 GW, in line with IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario.
“Under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable capacity is forecast to reach 7300 GW by 2028. This growth trajectory would see global capacity increase to 2.5 times its current level by 2030, falling short of the tripling goal.”
In the IEA’s ‘accelerated case’, 4,500 GW of new renewable capacity will be added over the next five years (compared to 3,700 GW in the ‘main case’), nearing the tripling goal.
Tripling nuclear?
The goal of tripling renewables by 2030 is a stretch but it is not impossible. Conversely, the ‘pledge’ signed by just 22 nations at COP28 to triple nuclear power by 2050 appears absurd.
The Labor federal government signed Australia up to the renewables pledge but not the nuclear pledge. The Coalition wants to do the opposite, and also opposes the Labor government’s target of 82 per cent renewable power supply by 2030.
One of the lies being peddled by the Coalition is that nuclear power capacity could increase by 80 percent over the next 30 years. That is based on a ‘high case’ scenario from the IAEA. However the IAEA’s ‘low case’ scenario — ignored by the Coalition — is for another 30 years of stagnation.
So should we go with the IAEA’s high or low scenarios, or split the difference perhaps?
According to a report by the IAEA itself, the Agency’s ‘high’ forecasts have consistently proven to be ridiculous and even its ‘low’ forecasts are too high — by 13 percent on average.
Nuclear power won’t increase by 80 percent by 2050 and it certainly won’t triple; indeed it will struggle to maintain current output given the ageing of the reactor fleet and recent experience with construction projects.
Comparing nuclear and renewables in China
China’s nuclear program added only 1.2 GW capacity in 2023 while wind and solar combined added 278 GW. Michael Barnard noted in CleanTechnica that allowing for capacity factors, the nuclear additions amount to about 7 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of new low carbon generation per year, while wind and solar between them will contribute about 427 TWh annually, over 60 times more than nuclear.
Barnard commented:
“One of the things that western nuclear proponents claim is that governments have over-regulated nuclear compared to wind and solar, and China’s regulatory regime for nuclear is clearly not the USA’s or the UK’s. They claim that fears of radiation have created massive and unfair headwinds, and China has a very different balancing act on public health and public health perceptions than the west. They claim that environmentalists have stopped nuclear development in the west, and while there are vastly more protests in China than most westerners realize, governmental strategic programs are much less susceptible to public hostility.
“And finally, western nuclear proponents complain that NIMBYs block nuclear expansion, and public sentiment and NIMBYism is much less powerful in China with its Confucian, much more top down governance system.
“China’s central government has a 30 year track record of building massive infrastructure programs, so it’s not like it is missing any skills there. China has a nuclear weapons program, so the alignment of commercial nuclear generation with military strategic aims is in hand too. China has a strong willingness to finance strategic infrastructure with long-running state debt, so there are no headwinds there either.
“Yet China can’t scale its nuclear program at all. It peaked in 2018 with 7 reactors with a capacity of 8.2 GW. For the five years since then then it’s been averaging 2.3 GW of new nuclear capacity, and last year only added 1.2 GW …”
Dr. Jim Green is the national nuclear campaigner with Friends of the Earth Australia and a member of the Nuclear Consulting Group.
Big costs sink flagship nuclear project and they’ll sink future small modular reactor projects too
By Susan O’Donnell and M.V. Ramana, 024, https://beyondnuclearinternational.org/2024/01/21/big-costs-sink-flagship-nuclear-project/
The major news in the world of nuclear energy last November was the collapse of the Carbon Free Power Project in the United States. The project was to build six NuScale small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Given NuScale’s status as the flagship SMR design not just in the U.S. but even globally, the project’s cancellation should ring alarm bells in Canada. Yet SMRs are touted as a climate action strategy although it is becoming clearer by the day that they will delay a possible transition to net-zero energy and render it more expensive.
The NuScale project failed because there were not enough customers for its expensive electricity. Construction cost estimates for the project had been steadily rising—from USD 4.2 billion for 600 megawatts in 2018 to a staggering USD 9.3 billion (CAD 12.8 billion) for 462 megawatts. Using a combination of government subsidies, potentially up to USD 4.2 billion, and an opaque calculation method, NuScale claimed that it would produce electricity at USD 89 per megawatt-hour. When standard U.S. government subsidies are included, electricity from wind and solar energy projects, including battery storage, could be as cheap as USD 12 to USD 31 per megawatt-hour.
A precursor to the failed NuScale project was mPower, which also received massive funding from the U.S. Department of Energy. Described by The New York Times as the leader in the SMR race, mPower could not find investors or customers. By 2017, the project was essentially dead. Likewise, a small reactor in South Korea proved to be “not practical or economic”.
Ignoring this dire economic reality, provincial governments planning for SMRs – Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Alberta – published a “strategic plan” seemingly designed to convince the federal government to open its funding floodgates. Offering no evidence about the costs of these technologies, the report asserts: “The power companies assessed that SMRs have the potential to be an economically competitive source of energy.”
For its part, the federal government has coughed up grants totalling more than $175 million to five different SMR projects in Ontario, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan. The Canada Infrastructure Bank loaned $970 million to Ontario Power Generation to develop its Darlington New Nuclear project. And the Canada Energy Regulator’s 2023 Canada’s Energy Future report envisioned a big expansion of nuclear energy based on wishful thinking and unrealistic assumptions about SMRs.
Canada’s support is puzzling when considering other official statements about nuclear energy. In 2021, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said that nuclear power must compete with renewable energy in the market. The previous year, then Environment Minister and current Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson also emphasized competition with other sources of energy, concluding “the winner will be the one that can provide electrical energy at the lowest cost.” Given the evidence about high costs, nuclear power cannot compete with renewable energy, let alone provide electricity at the lowest cost.
Investing huge amounts of taxpayer money in technologies that are uncompetitive is bad enough, but an equally serious problem is wasting time. The primary justification for this government largesse is dealing with climate change. But the urgency of that crisis requires action now, not in two decades.
All the SMR designs planned in Canada’s provinces are still on the drawing board. The design furthest along in the regulatory process – the BWRX-300 slated for Ontario’s Darlington site – does not yet have a licence to begin construction. New Brunswick’s choices – a sodium cooled fast reactor and a molten salt reactor – are demonstrably problematic and will take longer to build.
Recently built nuclear plants have taken, on average, 9.8 years from start of construction to producing electricity. The requisite planning, regulatory evaluations of new designs, raising the necessary finances, and finding customers who want to pay higher electricity bills might add another decade.
SMR vendors have to raise not only the billions needed to build the reactor but also the funding to complete their designs. NuScale spent around USD 1.8 billion (CAD 2.5 billion), and the reactor was still left with many unresolved safety problems. ARC-100 and Moltex proponents in New Brunswick have each asked for at least $500 million to further develop their designs. Moltex has been unable to obtain the required funding to match the $50.5 million federal grant it received in 2021.
Adverse economics killed the flagship NuScale SMR project. There is no reason to believe the costs of SMR designs proposed in Canada will be any lower. Are government officials attentive enough to hear the clanging alarm bells?
Susan O’Donnell is adjunct research professor and primary investigator of the CEDAR project at St. Thomas University in Fredericton. M.V. Ramana is the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security and professor at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia.
Nuclear power: molten salt reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors make the radioactive waste problem WORSE
reactors https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2018.1507791, Lindsay Krall &Allison Macfarlane, 31 Aug 18ABSTRACT
Nuclear energy-producing nations are almost universally experiencing delays in the commissioning of the geologic repositories needed for the long-term isolation of spent fuel and other high-level wastes from the human environment. Despite these problems, expert panels have repeatedly determined that geologic disposal is necessary, regardless of whether advanced reactors to support a “closed” nuclear fuel cycle become available. Still, advanced reactor developers are receiving substantial funding on the pretense that extraordinary waste management benefits can be reaped through adoption of these technologies.
Here, the authors describe why molten salt reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors – due to the unusual chemical compositions of their fuels – will actually exacerbate spent fuel storage and disposal issues. Before these reactors are licensed, policymakers must determine the implications of metal- and salt-based fuels vis a vis the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and the Continued Storage Rule.
Another week in nuclear news
Some bits of good news. The Year in Cheer – 177 ways the world got better in 2023.
TOP STORIES. The Last Flurry: The US Congress and Australian Parliamentarians seek Assange’s Release.
UK’s nuclear obsessions kill off its net zero strategy . Military interests are pushing new nuclear power – and the UK government has finally admitted it.
LIES. United Against Nuclear Iran: The Shadowy, Intelligence-Linked Group Driving the US Towards War With Iran.
Nuclear goes backwards, again, as wind and solar enjoy another year of record growth.
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Climate. State of the Climate: 2023 smashes records for surface temperature and ocean heat. A new wave of climate denialism is on the rise. The Greenland ice cap is losing an average of 30m tonnes of ice an hour due to the climate crisis. Shock Horror! – They’re letting some WOMEN into the Cop29 climate summit committee!
Nuclear. Pro nuclear propaganda seems to be doubling, as nuclear’s obscene costs become more apparent, as well as “clean nuclear’s absolute connection with weaponry!
Noel’s Notes. UK govt has come clean about it! Nuclear power- no use, really – just essential for the nuclear weapons industry. Biden in a bind – powerless to stop the genocide, but keen to fund it and promote it. The human cost when IT goes wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdQQib3rmkE
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AUSTRALIA. USA announces Australia’s participation in Yemen war, parliament in the dark. Cancelling the Journalist: The Australian ABC’s Coverage of the Israel-Gaza War. Western Australian groups reject the aims of Nuclear Safety Bills 2023 [Provisions] and call for public hearing. Perth nuclear waste storage facility planned for AUKUS submarines at HMAS Stirling on Garden Island.
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ECONOMICS. The Times asks “Are big nuclear reactors really the right thing for the UK? Nuclear power may twice as expensive as the Swedish government thought? $25 billion for refurbishment of Darlingon and Bruce reactors. US Offers Up To $500MM for Advanced Nuclear Fuel Production for SMRs. Big costs sink flagship nuclear project
EMPLOYMENT. Federal Employees to Stage Walk Out Over Biden’s Support for Gaza Slaughter
ENERGY. An Unprecedented Momentum for Renewables. IEA: Global renewable capacity grows over 50% YoY in 2023. Analysis: World will add enough renewables in five years to power US and Canada. Fuel problems for nuclear power, as the industry continues to languish in the doldrums.
INDIGENOUS ISSUES. Kebaowek Nation calls for cancellation of nuclear waste disposal site at Chalk River. Documentary ‘Downwind’ shows deadly consequences of nuclear testing on tribal lands. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkoVPZnLlUY&t=14s
LEGAL. South Africa has made its genocide case against Israel in court. Here’s what both sides said and what happens next. Fukushima Nuclear Waste Water Disputes Continued: International Law in Japanese Court?
MEDIA. How the Gaza War Can Be Big News and Invisible at the Same Time. The threat of catastrophe is assessed in Nuclear Armageddon: How Close Are We? — review https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j43-i6E2UJU&t=128s. 1 B Scary simulator shows what could happen in the event of a nuclear disaster.
OPPOSITION to NUCLEAR . Blocking the Doors of the Treaty Blockers & the Nuclear Ban Treaty’s 3d Anniversary.
PERSONAL STORIES. ‘The fight isn’t over’: Idaho downwinders persist after Congress cuts compensation for them.
POLITICS.
- It’s All About Me: Netanyahu Rejects Palestinian Statehood.
- Even Britain’s ruling Tory party fear that their “Nuclear Roadmap” plan will end up on the scrap heap. Roadmap to warfare: new policy exposes links with UK military nuclear projects. Construction to start on Sizewell C nuclear power station amid opposition. Petition: 100 per cent renewables rather than Small Modular (nuclear) Reactors. Sizewell C opponents warn Suffolk nuclear plant ‘could be the new HS2‘.
- Biden administration finalizes a $1.1 billion aid package for California’s last nuclear power plant. Why Joe Biden Is a Foreign Policy Failure.
- Belarus says it is to change policy on nuclear weapons.
- For Estonia the risks of going nuclear are high, and the plant not strictly necessary.
POLITICS INTERNATIONAL and DIPLOMACY. São Tomé and Príncipe 70th State to ratify Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. US urges discussions with China on practical nuclear risk reduction steps.
SAFETY. Limping along: EDF Energy looking to extend operational life of aging reactors AGAIN. Hinkley C site fire safety fears trigger enforcement notices.
SECRETS and LIES. Shining a light on the UK’s nuclear deterrent.
SPINBUSTER. Work officially ‘started’ at Sizewell C Nuclear on Monday – but it was really only political theatre. Why nuclear reactors are not the future of energy despite what UK Government would have you think.
TECHNOLOGY. Nuclear start-up Newcleo drops plans for British factory in favour of France. WASTES. Chalk River, or low-level nuclear governance. Finland’s Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK) wants to delay completion of its review on waste dump.
WAR and CONFLICT. A response to Kallenborn: Why realism requires that nuclear weapons be abolished. Incredible analysis of US warmongers plans for war with China ! Read this and weep!
WASTES. Chalk River, or low-level nuclear governance. Finland’s Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK) wants to delay completion of its review on waste dump.
WEAPONS and WEAPONS SALES.
- The Military-Industrial Complex Is the Winner (Not You). What sort of world do we want?: ICAN exec discusses ultimate goal of nuclear abolition. Nuclear Threats Are Looming, And Nobody Knows How Many Nukes Are Out There. Are Nuclear-Armed Nations Entering a New Arms Race in 2024? – Experts Weigh In.
- Germany plans to supply Israel with tanks shells as Gaza death toll nears 25,000.
- Zelensky Courts JPMorgan, Bank of America & Bridgewater CEOs At Davos, Urges More Money From West. German defense chief against going ‘all in’ on Ukraine.
- North Korea says it tested underwater nuclear attack drone in response to rivals’ naval drills. Nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula set to worsen in 2024. Are Nuclear-Armed Nations Entering a New Arms Race in 2024? – Experts Weigh In.
1 This month
of the week – Disrupting War & Militarism in Oceania. Active solidarity. Radical practice.
Antinuclear 