Antinuclear

Jim Green demolishes Rolls Royce’s claims about so-called “small” and “cheap” nuclear reactors for Australia.

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Watch Australia, Jim Green  7 Apr 24

According to reports in The Australian, Rolls-Royce claims it could build a 470-megawatt reactor in Australia for A$3.5-5 billion. That equates to A$7.4-10.6 billion / gigawatt (GW). For comparison, the cost for the two EPR reactors under construction at Hinkley Point, the only reactor construction project in the UK, is A$27.8 / GW.

So Rolls-Royce claims its cost-per-GW will be just 27-38% of the cost of Hinkley Point, for a reactor type that it has never built and doesn’t have a licence to build, anywhere in the world. Clearly Rolls-Royce’s cost claims need to be treated with scepticism.

Rolls-Royce claims it could build a reactor in Australia in just four years (once licensing and a myriad of other issues were sorted). Let’s compare that speculation with real world experience:

* Hinkley Point was supposed to be a seven-year construction project. That has blown out to 12-13 years with further slippage likely.

* The one EPR under construction project in France was meant to be completed in five years but it remains incomplete after 17 years.

* The one EPR recently completed in Finland was meant to be a four-year construction project but ultimately took 17 years to complete.

* The two AP1000 reactors in the US were meant to be completed in three years, but ultimately took 10 and 11 years to complete.

Rolls-Royce’s 470-MW design is being marketed as a small modular reactor (SMR) even though it falls well outside the <300 MW definition of SMRs. Only two SMR plants are said to be operating anywhere in the world (though there’s nothing modular about either of them). Russia’s floating ‘SMR’ was supposed to be a three-year construction project but that blew out to 12 years (and costs increased six-fold). China’s ‘SMR’ was supposed to be a four-year construction project but that blew out to nine years (and costs increased three-fold).

Clearly Rolls-Royce’s claim that it could build a reactor in just four years needs to be treated with scepticism.

April 7, 2024 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | spinbuster, technology