State of the Cryosphere Report 2024
Lost Ice, Global Damage
In the State of the Cryosphere 2024 – Lost Ice, Global Damage report, over 50 leading cryosphere scientists warn of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions. Current climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, would bring disastrous and irreversible consequences for billions of people from global ice loss.
Based on the most recent cryosphere science updates from 2024, the authors underscore that the costs of loss and damage will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in this century if our current level of emissions continues – leading towards a rise of 3°C or more. Mitigation will also become more costly due to feedbacks from thawing permafrost emissions and loss of sea ice.
For the first time, the report notes a growing scientific consensus that melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, among other factors, may be slowing important ocean currents at both poles, with potentially dire consequences for a much colder northern Europe and greater sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast.
Reviewed and supported by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists, this is the latest report in the State of the Cryosphere series, which takes the pulse of the cryosphere on an annual basis. The cryosphere is the name given to Earth’s snow and ice regions and ranges from ice sheets, glaciers, snow and permafrost to sea ice and the polar oceans – which are acidifying far more rapidly than warmer waters. The report describes how a combination of melting polar ice sheets, vanishing glaciers, and thawing permafrost will have rapid, irreversible, and disastrous impacts worldwide.
Could AI soon make dozens of billion-dollar nuclear stealth attack submarines more expensive and obsolete?
By Wayne Williams, 5 Jan 25, https://www.techradar.com/pro/could-ai-soon-make-dozens-of-billion-dollar-nuclear-stealth-attack-submarines-more-expensive-and-obsolete
Artificial intelligence can detect undersea movement better than humans.
AI can process far more data from a far more sensors than human operators can ever achieve
But the game of cat-and-mouse means that countermeasures do exist to confuse AI
Increase in compute performance and ubiquity of always-on passive sensors need also be accounted for.
The rise of AI is set to reduce the effectiveness of nuclear stealth attack submarines.
These advanced billion-dollar subs, designed to operate undetected in hostile waters, have long been at the forefront of naval defense. However, AI-driven advancements in sensor technology and data analysis are threatening their covert capabilities, potentially rendering them less effective.
An article by Foreign Policy and IEEE Spectrum now claims AI systems can process vast amounts of data from distributed sensor networks, far surpassing the capabilities of human operators. Quantum sensors, underwater surveillance arrays, and satellite-based imaging now collect detailed environmental data, while AI algorithms can identify even subtle anomalies, such as disturbances caused by submarines. Unlike human analysts, who might overlook minor patterns, AI excels at spotting these tiny shifts, increasing the effectiveness of detection systems.
Game of cat-and-mouse
AI’s increasing role could challenge the stealth of submarines like those in the Virginia-class, which rely on sophisticated engineering to minimize their detectable signatures.
Noise-dampening tiles, vibration-reducing materials, and pump-jet propulsors are designed to evade detection, but AI-enabled networks are increasingly adept at overcoming these methods. The ubiquity of passive sensors and continuous improvements in computational performance are increasing the reach and resolution of these detection systems, creating an environment of heightened transparency in the oceans.
Despite these advances, the game of cat-and-mouse persists, as countermeasures are, inevitably, being developed to outwit AI detection.
These tactics, as explored in the Foreign Policy and IEEE Spectrum piece, include noise-camouflaging techniques that mimic natural marine sounds, deploying uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) to create diversions, and even cyberattacks aimed at corrupting the integrity of AI algorithms. Such methods seek to confuse and overwhelm AI systems, maintaining an edge in undersea warfare.
As AI technology evolves, nations will need to weigh up the escalating costs of nuclear stealth submarines against the potential for their obsolescence. Countermeasures may provide temporary degree of relief, but the increasing prevalence of passive sensors and AI-driven analysis suggests that traditional submarine stealth is likely to face diminishing returns in the long term.
Short nuclear news round-up -week to 5 January 2025
Some bits of good news – 86 Stories of Progress from 2024
A 12-year-old schoolgirl has designed a solar-powered blanket for the homeless. ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2025/01/04/1-a-12-year-old-schoolgirl-has-designed-a-solar-powered-blanket-for-thehomeless/
TOP STORIES
2025, Iran is back in the U.S. crosshairs for regime change.
Japan, US to communicate on possible use of nuclear weapons.
Arms control is essential to prevent the total devastation of nuclear war.
Protect your girls: We show that biological sex IS a factor in radiation outcomes, WIDELY.
JIMMY CARTER: Commemorations by nuke watchdogs
Climate. A snapshot of climate devastation’: Study claims 2024’s biggest climate disasters cost $200bn – ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2025/01/01/2-b1-a-snapshot-of-climate-devastation-study-claims-2024s-biggest-climate-disasters-cost-200bn/ Skiing in France is slowly dying ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/12/31/2-b1-skiing-in-france-is-slowly-dying/deal for Ukraine ?
Noel’s notes. Iran and the “right to have nuclear weapons“. Is it realistic for Donald Trump to boast of a quick peace deal for Ukraine?
AUSTRALIA. The $80 billion question buried in Dutton’s nuclear power plan. The Coalition’s coal-keeper plan. Can true nuclear independence be achieved without ending the US Alliance? More Australian nuclear news at https://antinuclear.net/2024/12/31/australian-nuclear-news-30-december-6-june/
NUCLEAR ITEMS
| ECONOMICS. Sizewell C faces calls for more scrutiny of costs ahead of Final Investment Decision. Government urged to review Sizewell C nuclear plant over ballooning cost. Armed with Canadian taxpayer support, AtkinsRéalis and Westinghouse are competing to export nuclear reactors. Which one will prevail? -ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2025/01/04/1-b1-armed-with-canadian-taxpayer-support-atkinsrealis-and-westinghouse-are-competing-to-export-nuclear-reactors-which-one-will-prevail/ |
| ENVIRONMENT. Some Types of Pollution Are More Equal than Others.Radiation is normal at Cesar Chavez Park, but it’s a different story underground, tests show. |
| ETHICS and RELIGION. The Moral Bankruptcy of the West. |
| EVENTS. Petition: Scrutinise Sizewell C |
| HEALTH. Where is the ‘mature debate’ about the health impacts of nuclear power? – ALSO AT https://antinuclear.net/2025/01/03/where-is-the-mature-debate-about-the-health-impacts-of-nuclear-power/ Cellphone radiation warning as researchers reveal new risk factor. |
| MEDIA. Examining Annie Jacobsen’s “Nuclear War: A Scenario”. BBC staffers reveal editor’s ‘entire job’ to whitewash Israeli war crimes. |
| PERSONAL STORIES. Toshiyuki Mimaki: Let’s save humanity from nuclear weapons. One Week in the Carter Presidency: Brokering Peace and a Nuclear Crisis -ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2024/12/31/2-b1-one-week-in-the-carter-presidency-brokering-peace-and-a-nuclear-crisis/ |
| POLITICS.Nuclear power had a strong year in 2024, but uncertainty looms for 2025. No change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine, top security official says. US relaxes green hydrogen rules in race to boost nuclear sector -ALSO AT https://nuclear-news.net/2025/01/04/2-b1-us-relaxes-green-hydrogen-rules-in-race-to-boost-nuclear-sector/ |
| POLITICS INTERNATIONAL and DIPLOMACY. Iran says ready to enter talks soon with the West to agree on a new nuclear deal. Next nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries due on Jan 13.With successful Syrian regime change, will US set sights on Iran regime change 2.0? – https://nuclear-news.net/2024/12/31/2-b1-with-successful-syrian-regime-change-will-us-set-sights-on-iran-regime-change-2-0/ A Trump-Putin Deal Over Ukraine Does Not Look Good for Europe.Can Trump Trump China (or Vice Versa)? |
| RADIATION. Improved way to gauge radiation doses developed for Fukushima, (they studied only 30 people) |
| SAFETY. Incidents. The Time Navy Lt. Jimmy Carter Was Lowered Into A Partially Melted-Down Nuclear Reactor |
| SECRETS and LIES. EU officials will claim ignorance of Israel’s war crimes: a leaked document shows what they knew. |
SPACE. EXPLORATION, WEAPONS. The Quiet Crisis Above: Unveiling the Dark Side of Space Militarization
Departing Air Force Secretary Will Leave Space Weaponry as a Legacy.
TECHNOLOGY. Here comes Yakutia, Russia’s newest nuclear icebreaker.
WASTES. WIPP’s Legacy Transuranic Waste Disposal Plan Demonstrates DOE’s Broken Promises. Decommissioning: Pickering A nuclear power plant bites the dust!
| WAR and CONFLICT. Biden discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites if Tehran speeds toward bomb. Syrian minorities under threat as security forces carry out raids against ‘remnants of Assad militias’. |
| WEAPONS and WEAPONS SALES. Trump Wants Greenland to Deploy Medium-Range Missiles Aimed at Russia . US Has Given Israel $22 Billion in Military Aid Since October 2023. Biden spending last month shoveling billions to get more Ukrainians killed for nothing. Biden Administration Announces Nearly $6 Billion in New Ukraine Aid. Canada’s atomic legacy |
Iran and the “right to have nuclear weapons”
Today we learn that “Biden discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites if Tehran speeds toward bomb”. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20,
Yeah! Fair enough! I hear many cry.
After all, it’s the wicked dictatorial Muslim state that we’re dealing with, isn’t it?
As against us good Western Christian countries, where the bishops bless both sides in every war, and where it was OK to obliterate with nuclear bombs, 2 Japanese cities .
Yes, we’re so righteous, that our great and exceptional defender of freedom, the United States of America has a quiet unspoken policy that it has the right to a pre-emptive nuclear strike on another country,.
The Islamic Republic of Iran regards use of nuclear and chemical weapons as a cardinal and unforgivable sin- with the fatwa that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that Iran shall never acquire these weapons.
The Judeo-Christian beliefs apparently allow for the wholesale killing of civilians, by nuclear bombing.
Currently the world is witnessing a cruel genocide by Israel, and increasing threats by the Israeli government against Iran. We, the good Christian West, say tut tut about the mass killing of Palestinians, but seem ready to support any militancy against Iran.
What I can’t understand, given the USA’s terrible record of starting wars in faraway places, is why on Earth the USA is accepted as the fount of all goodness – able to decide the rights and wrongs of Iran’s defense and foreign policies?
How is it fair that USA, Russia, UK, France are all OK to have nuclear weapons, but no other countries can? (We frown that North Korea has nuclear weapons, but perhaps USA would have bombed them again, if they didn’t).
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the USA, and endorsed by the UN meant that Iran was banned from transferring, importing, and exporting arms, sensitive nuclear material and equipment. Iran in return got relief from sanctions.
Now that the Israeli government is involved in conflict with other Muslim groups across the Middle East, there is a possibility that Israel will make attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, even use its nuclear weapons against Iran. With the USA pondering on a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, before 20 January, is it any wonder that the government in Iran is re-examining its nuclear weapons policy?
Peter Dutton’s New Clear Vision… Oh, Sorry, Nuclear Fission!
January 5, 2025, first published on March 6, 2024, https://theaimn.net/peter-duttons-new-clear-vision-oh-sorry-nuclear-fission/
Peter Dutton has a vision for our energy future. Personally, I think that’s great. One should have a vision particularly if one is a political leader…
Like Jeff Kennett. Being a Victorian, I clearly remember how Jeff shared his vision of a privatised energy market where choice and the market would bring down prices and lead to the sort of efficiencies that would mean that we could be confident that power prices would be lower but unfortunately it didn’t work out like that. Still, one shouldn’t hold it against him that his vision didn’t work out quite as he described it; one should only get stuck into Labor leaders when they promise that electricity prices will come down by $275 by 2025 even if we’re still in 2024… Or in the case of Tony “Marty McFly” Abbott stuck in the 1950s!
Pete was very clear. The sun doesn’t shine at night, wind turbines at sea are likely to interfere with nature and he’s always been keen on nature, and batteries haven’t been invented yet. Yes, he actually said words to that effect. On the other hand, we can put a small, modular nuclear reactor in lots and lots of places just as soon as someone invents one and we find the several billion dollars to pay for it…
Don’t get me wrong, I think that it’s good that Dutton is thinking long term! Far too often leaders only worry about the short term and I sort of find it inspiring that Peter is so optimistic about the future when any reasonable analysis of the Dunkley by-election would have the party changing leaders before anybody had time to count the numbers.
Let’s elect the new guy from Cook.”
“Simon Kennedy?”
“Yeah. He has to be better and the public don’t know him yet!”
I should point out that the Liberal candidate for Cook hasn’t actually been elected yet, but that didn’t stop News.com.au from declaring him the winner. I mean, I know there’s pressure on to be the first media outlet to declare an election win, but I’m old-fashioned enough to think that we should wait until after the electorate have voted. Still, he did win in spite of the fact that the moderate faction wanted a woman, as did John Howard, but that’s a whole other story. Anyway, he’s a winner because he managed to defeat the moderate faction which shows he should fit in quite nicely in the Canberra party room. And he also defeated John Howard which is pretty easy to do, given he’s the only living PM to lose his seat in a general election.
Of course, Peter Dutton’s new clear fission… sorry nuclear vision… has a few hurdles to get over.
The first is that someone is bound to ask for more detail. Naturally, he can say that we’re just outlining the general idea and we can work out the detail later. This should be enough because, after all, it’s not like the Voice to Parliament because it’s his idea so surely we shouldn’t ask for any more than the broad strokes.
The second is that once he starts to become specific about where to locate the plants, then we’ll undoubtedly see the NIMBYs coming out, and while Dutton supports farmers who don’t want powerlines in their back yard, this is different. It’s sort of like fracking where people should just suck it up… Not the gas. That wouldn’t be good. This problem might be solved by only putting reactor in Labor electorates, but then it makes it hard to win government because they have more electorates than he does.
The third is that, while it’s good to have the vision thing, it doesn’t actually solve the immediate problem. After all, if you’re sleeping in your car, you don’t appreciate being told that the solution to this is a new government initiative where you’ll be trained in building and given a low-cost loan, tools and a free block of land to build your own home, even if it would potentially solve your long term accomodation problem. Similarly, while my solar panels have made me ok with my electricity consumption, I find my gas bill annoyingly high and I’m not going to say, “Nuclear in ten years time. Wow, thanks Pete, I’ll just have cold showers till then, but I hear that’s likely to extend my life… at the very least, it’ll seem longer.”
So let’s have three cheers for Peter:
- One for having a longterm vision
- Two for his optimism in thinking that he’ll be leader by the time the next election comes around. (I’m presuming that News.com.au is right and we already have the winner of Cook. I’m also presuming he lasts that long, so one cheer for me here too!)
- And, finally, for actually being the first Opposition Liberal leader to announce a policy.
All right number 3 may be a little unfair because Tony did have two policies: The first was to undo everything that Labor had done and the second was a rolled, gold paid parental leave scheme.
Whatever. Here we go: Three cheers, hip, hip…
Oh, that’s not very nice. You should be ashamed of yourself.
1 This month
of the week – Disrupting War & Militarism in Oceania. Active solidarity. Radical practice.
Antinuclear 