Antinuclear

The devil of Frontier’s nuclear modelling is not in the detail, it’s in the omissions

Alan Rai, Jan 23, 2025, ReNewEconomy

In November and December 2024, Frontier Economics released two reports on the transition required in the NEM to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, drawing on AEMO’s 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP). 

This was followed by various summaries and takeaways of the Frontier modelling by, amongst others, Steven Hamilton, Matt Kean, Kane Thornton, and David Leitch.

In contrast to some of the public reaction to date, I think Frontier’s work adds to the debate about the potential for nuclear power generation in Australia. In particular, Frontier’s work raises a philosophical question about the pace of decarbonisation we want, and our willingness to pay for it.

We might all subscribe to “Net Zero by 2050”, but the pathway to get there, as AEMO’s and Frontier’s modelling show, can clearly differ. I will return to this issue, below. 

This article differentiates from what’s been publicly said and written about Frontier’s work in two important ways: 

1. It focuses on the assumptions in and implications of Frontier’s modelling, whereas the bulk of the existing public discussion mixes aspects of Frontier’s analysis with political parties’ and politicians’ statements on nuclear power and their selective use of Frontier’s analysis to support their statements. 

2. It discusses both of the Frontier reports, whereas the bulk of existing discussion focuses on selected aspects of Frontier’s second report. 

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. In conclusion 

To reiterate what I started with, I think Frontier’s work adds to the debate about the potential for nuclear power generation in Australia – their modelling poses some important philosophical questions for us.

However, the above-noted challenges means Frontier’s modelling falls short of a definitive answer to whether nuclear is appropriate, at any scale and at any future time horizon, for Australia’s power sector. As Frontier appropriately noted, their modelling is not “the last word on this matter.”  https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-devil-of-frontiers-nuclear-modelling-is-not-in-the-detail-its-in-the-omissions/

January 25, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Uncategorized