Antinuclear

Ukraine to soon jump back out of the fire and into the frying-pan?

 https://theaimn.net/ukraine-to-soon-jump-back-out-of-the-fire-and-into-the-frying-pan/ 1 Mar 25

Volodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump and J.D. Vance to work out a peace agreement.  “What started as nervous diplomacy ended as a  Three Stooges pie-fight,”- but as Trump put it “It made great television“.

Was anyone really expecting Zelensky to cave in to the planned deal, when he continued to insist on NATO membership for Ukraine, all territories returned, and American military support? As Trump unkindly put it, the Ukrainians “don’t have any cards” in this negotiation.

The military situation? It looks as if Russia is winning, and there is no doubt that Ukraine cannot prevail unless the USA continues its military backing:

“Russia’s military for months has been reporting a slow but steady advance westward across Donetsk region, capturing village after village……….The troops have been closing in for several seeks on the key logistics centre of Pokrovsk….. Moscow’s troops have focused on capturing Donbas — made up of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”

The humanitarian situation:

“The conflict in Ukraine has displaced over 3.5 million people within the country and forced over 6.8 million to leave the country as of January 2025……….. an estimated 12.7 million requiring humanitarian aid and protection, according to the U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHCR).The war has sparked economic shocks and disruption with global ramifications, impacting people in poverty and contributing to an escalating global hunger crisis”

“Millions of people are living in damaged buildings without basic necessities like electricity, water, or heat.”…………………………………According to the United Nations (U.N.), 12.7 million people will need humanitarian aid and protection in 2025

The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on children, with over 2,400 killed or injured since the conflict escalated in February 2022, an average of 16 child casualties every week, according to UNICEF.

So where do negotiations stand now?

Zelensky doesn’t seem to understand that in a real negotiation, both sides have to get something out of it. However much Zelensky and the West hate the Russian President, Vladimir is in a powerful position, and it is simple logic that he would need some concessions from Ukraine. That’s something that Donald Trump well understands, (along with the opportunities for American business in this negotiation.)

What happens next is very much up to the Ukrainian Parliament, and also to Trump, who has already shown willingness to make some concessions on his demands for financial repayments to USA . We could see a dramatic fall from grace by Volodymyr Zelensky, and his departure into irrelevance.

Politics in Ukraine.

The Western media have fawned over Zelensky, and ignored some unsavoury aspects of his government. His rule has become dictatorial. “The president has reduced the national legislature to a tool for rubber-stamping his decisions, a major outlet reports” The national parliament – the Verkhovna Rada has long been tightly controlled by the presidential administration. Before 2022 Zelensky cracked down on opposition politicians and critical media. He has admired, and restored the reputation of, Ukraine’s past Nazi group leaders, Stepan Bandera, Evgeny Konovalets, Yaroslav Hunka. He banned Ukraine’s largest Christian orthodox, church, banned the use of the Russian language in official and public documents, banned performance of all Russian language books, music, and films, in public. He has supported one of the most notorious neo-Nazis in modern Ukrainian history: Azov Battalion founder Andriy Biletsky.

Business and Corruption in Ukraine. One can hardly blame Zelensky for this – corruption has been consistent in Ukraine, following paths similar to organised crime and political parties in the post-Soviet Union .  Transparency International ranks Ukraine low on the “clean” list. In the annual ranking it still ranks 104th among 180 countries.   92% of Ukrainians identify corruption as a severe national issue in 2024, second only to the war.

The USA role in corruption in Ukraine. Well, it’s hard to find information on this. The U.S. Republicans tried hard to pin this on President Biden’s son Hunter, without much success. However he did not come up squeaky clean. Hunter Biden did have business dealings in Ukraine, which included high paid consultancies and gifts, In December 2024, Biden’s father pardoned him for all federal offenses committed between 2014 and 2024, including any potential offenses not yet discovered.

But let’s wait and see what kind of corruption might emerge in Ukraine, once Trump has achieved this contentious peace deal. His record from his previous presidency:

“As president, Donald Trump has flouted all kinds of norms, starting with his decision not to divest from his business interests while in office. That set the stage for an administration marked by self-interest, profiteering at the highest levels and more than 3,700 conflicts of interest.”

All of which leads me to conclude that things are not going to be easy for Ukraine, whatever the outcome of this crisis about a peace deal. It is generally accepted that Ukraine simply cannot fight on without the military backing of the USA. It’s difficult, and confusing, to predict what kind of backing can Ukraine expect from European nations and the UK.

The most likely outcome – the Ukrainian parliament does decide to agree to a deal with Russia, which will entail considerable USA business presence , and commercial gain from resources, both in Ukraine and in Russia. Hardly a surprise – as that’s what Donald Trump is all about- American business interests in control.

It doesn’t sound like a great outcome for Ukraine. But from the humanitarian point of view, it sounds better than the carnage of war.

March 1, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Uncategorized