Antinuclear

Australia lays out red carpet for rapid green energy transition. Can Labor seize the moment?

Giles Parkinson, May 4, 2025, https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-lays-out-red-carpet-for-rapid-green-energy-transition-can-labor-seize-the-moment/

What an opportunity Australia has before it.

The thumping victory to Labor, unimaginable just months ago, or even while chomping on the democracy sausage on Saturday afternoon, means that the Australian federal government now has a clear mandate to do something great – accelerate the transition to renewables and get really serious about climate targets.

Australia has rejected the Gina Rinehart vision of a nuclear-powered, iron-domed Australia living in climate denial and perpetual fear.

The foot soldiers Australia’s richest person sent into electoral battle, armed with real and imaginary MAGA caps, have been dispatched by voters. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat, and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien very nearly did.

There will now be nearly as many independents in the lower house as there are Liberals, or members of the LNP or Nationals. How envious must the Americans feel! Trumpism has been repudiated. Common sense, respect for the science, and empathy has prevailed. And Australia can even be sure there will be another election in three years time. The US, not so much.

It is remarkable that, after two decades of political argy-bargy, the loudest and sanest voices across the floor from Labor will not be from seeking favours from the fossil fuel industry, but from those urging the government to go harder, to aim higher.

Green industry can hardly believe it, and leaders such as Andrew Forrest have already found their voice.

“This result sends a clear and unequivocal message: Australians will back and support policies that recognise the economic opportunities which come from acting on the existential threat of climate change,” Forrest said in a statement on Sunday.

“It shows that any party which seeks to govern this country must have a serious and credible plan to confront the climate crisis.

“In a turbulent world, Australia remains a strong, principled and pragmatic voice. We must now use that voice to back science, seize the green energy opportunity, and strengthen our role in the world with compassion, ambition and purpose.”

Forrest has been outspoken in his criticism of net zero targets, describing them as a “con”, because they essentially let fossil fuels off the hook for real action. He has set a target of “real zero” at his Pilbara iron ore mines by the end of the decade, which means burning no diesel and no gas for electricity or transport by 2030.

It is a stunningly ambitious goal, but in keeping with the need to act decisively on climate change. Australia’s climate targets are still lacklustre, but its government cannot now argue that it does not have the mandate to be bold.

In a few months Australia, which wants to host the 2026 UN climate conference, will need to submit its 2035 emissions reduction target. It has to respect the science. Is Labor satisfied with power for the sake of being in power, or does it wish to leave a lasting legacy, or will we regret it not being in minority government. It likely has another six years to actually Do Something.

But challenges remain, and while the election may be won, that could turn out to be the easy part. Energy and climate minister Chris Bowen and the Labor team have some thinking to do about the best and most equitable way to deliver the second and most challenging part of the green energy transition.

It’s 20 years since John Howard, under intense pressure from a fossil fuel lobby horrified by a proposed extension to the mandatory renewable energy target that would have doubled the share of wind and solar from 1 pct to 2 per cent of generation, threw that policy out the door.

Australia is now at 40 per cent renewables, aiming to double that to 82 per cent renewables by 2030. South Australia, already at more than 70 per cent wind and solar, aims to reach 100 per cent “net renewables” by the end of 2027.

Bowen’s big challenge to deliver that federal target is to ensure that enough wind and solar gets built in time, and at scale. Challenges remain in equipment supplies, inflation in civil construction costs, and securing a skilled labour force – and the likes of Barnaby Joyce in the principality of New England will not easily give up their fight.

Bowen’s focus will be making sure that the Capacity Investment Scheme delivers wind, solar and storage in the right timeframe, but even that won’t be enough to reach the party’s target.

Policies and planning blueprints will need to adapt. The Tim Nelson review of market rules and incentives will be critical, as will the next edition of the Integrated System Plan. More needs to be done to encourage electrification, consumer energy resources, and alternatives to big transmission and renewable energy zones.

And there is going to be fascinating debate among the grid experts about how to manage the final stages of this transition from a centralised grid dominated by fossil fuels, to a distributed, inverter-based system built around consumer assets, large-scale wind and solar, and storage.

Australia is at the forefront of this transition, and the Australian public, and particularly its media, needs to get its head around the issues, because consumers are going to be at the heart of this – and they needed to be informed, not misled.

“Now is the time for conviction and courage to double down and move at the speed the climate science dictates,” says Tim Buckley, from Climate and Energy Finance. “There are plenty of challenges, but the risks and costs of too-slow action are clear. This is an intergenerational game changer moment!”

May 6, 2025 Posted by Christina Macpherson | energy | Leave a comment