Antinuclear

Can Australia pay off Turkey to host COP31? The Brits did.

A previously unreported package of investment pledges and U.N. support got Turkey to back down last time.

May 8, 2025 By Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise

LONDON — Australia’s bid to host next year’s climate conference depends on convincing Turkey to step aside. 

If they need tips, there’s a British playbook — the details of which are previously unreported — that worked before, involving investment wheel-greasing and support for Turkey’s international priorities. 

Riding high on his May 3 election landslide, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wants to use the 2026 climate talks to drive clean energy investment and win a decades-old political battle with his right-wing rivals over efforts to cut greenhouse gases.

“Renewable energy is an opportunity we must work together to seize for the future of our economy,” Albanese said in his victory speech, capping an election where the prime minister backed Adelaide as the COP31 host city.

But to host the climate summit, Australia needs Turkey to drop its rival bid.

Australian officials flew to Turkey last year, but failed to secure a deal. Instead, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his intention to bring COP to his country.

Some believe it’s only a matter of time before Turkey crumbles. Australia’s bid has backing from the European Union and other Western countries. More support is expected from the Pacific, given Canberra has offered to cohost the summit with an island nation.

Australia “should hold out until the world forces a deal,” said Richie Merzian, the CEO of the Clean Energy Investor Group and a former Australian diplomat. “The biggest impediment to the COP31 Australia-Pacific bid was the Australian election. With that sorted, it should organize accordingly.”

But Turkey has a track record of extracting more than just diplomatic pain in return for acquiescence. Facing a similar impasse with Erdoğan over the COP26 conference, U.K. officials offered a package of incentives to Turkey in order to host the talks in Glasgow in 2021.

The annual U.N. talks rotate through five groups of countries, loosely based on global regions and countries’ development stages. The “Western European and Other States” group is scheduled to host the 2026 summit. Choosing a host requires consensus.

Turkey is the only developing country in this group, which includes Australia and the U.K. And it has a track record of using the U.N. talks’ location for leverage.

In the lead-up to COP26, British officials courted Ankara intensively. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Erdoğan had a “good relationship on this topic in particular,” said Dominick Chilcott, the former British ambassador to Turkey who negotiated the arrangements.

But ultimately, Turkey was transactional in its demands. 

Chilcott said Britain’s incentives package included a promise to host a Turkish investment conference in London, as well as U.K. backing of Turkish candidates for several international and U.N. posts. He declined to say which posts.

The U.K. also promised to speak to other countries about classifying Turkey as a “developing country” under the U.N. climate convention — allowing it to receive climate aid. “Although,” Chilcott said, “we didn’t think there was much chance of it going anywhere.”

May 16, 2025 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change - global warming