The complex truth about gas and renewables
ReNewEConomy, Kane Thornton, May 16, 2025
Energy policy in Australia has long suffered at the hands of a simple lie being easier to accept than a complex truth. The federal election was remarkable in all sorts of ways, but one of those was that the Australian public backed a complex truth and they overwhelmingly rejected a simple lie.
They rejected nuclear power and a massive campaign to hoodwink Australia into backing a solution riddled with risk and uncertainty, likely to have enormous costs and be decades away. Instead, they provided a strong mandate for Australia to proceed with renewables, backed up by batteries, pumped hydro and a small amount of gas.
At the start of this year, amidst waves of misinformation and anticipating another contentious election campaign, the clean energy industry launched a new campaign to ensure the Australian public got the facts. We wanted to make sure the Australian public had access to the facts about clean energy and the alternatives. It’s working.
As the dust settles on the election, we have a lot more to do to ensure the public understand the complexity and nuance of Australia’s energy transition. One of those areas is about the role of gas in the electricity system. So let’s get it straight.
Firstly, the fact is that a small amount of gas-fired electricity generation is playing an important role today, and according to the experts will be necessary for the foreseeable future. That might be an inconvenient truth for some people, but it is the reality for now. It’s a small role, compared to the massive role renewable energy and energy storage is already playing and is expected to in the future.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) states that “As coal-fired power stations retire, renewable energy connected with transmission and distribution, firmed with storage, and backed up by gas-powered generation is the lowest-cost way to supply electricity to homes and businesses through Australia’s transition to a net zero economy”
They saw through unprecedented misinformation and a ferocious campaign against renewable energy and for nuclear power. More than anything, Australian’s demonstrated they wanted the truth and could handle that truth. No one said that replacing Australia’s aging coal generation fleet over a decade or so would be easy, or straight forward. But the election showed that it’s time for more honesty with the Australian public.
Importantly, AEMO also projects that gas generation capacity (MW) will produce much less energy (MWh – actual output) than it does today, with a reduced capacity factor for any gas generation of around 7% on average.
AEMO projects gas generation will play a narrower and more focussed role, providing rare but important coverage of seasonal shortfalls, as opposed to its current role in regularly providing peaking support. AEMO is currently forecasting that gas-fired generation capacity will increase from 11.5 GW now to 15 GW in 2050, including replacement of 9.3 GW of the current capacity that is expected to retire over coming decades.
This 15 GW is a relatively small amount of gas capacity when considered alongside the 135 GW of new large-scale renewable generation and the 56 GW of combined utility and distributed energy storage needed by 2050.
The experts tell us that energy storage will play a much bigger role than gas generation in the long term. Energy storage represents a cleaner, lower cost alternative to gas generation and investors are pouring billions into developing more of these assets – last year alone we saw a record 4,000 MW of new energy storage projects, with more than double that due to connect in the next few years. The faster we can deploy clean energy and a range of storage solutions, the faster we can reduce our reliance on gas…………………………………………….. https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-complex-truth-about-gas-and-renewables/
Let’s give Trump credit where credit is due
18 May 25 https://theaimn.net/president-trump-on-ukraine-in-pursuit-of-peace-or-glory/
Yes, he’s a narcissist, yes he’s racist, misogynist, crooked in business, and with no regard for civil institutions and laws. AND he’s just been sucking up to the nastiest most murderous Arabian Gulf regime, in order to make $billions for American business interests, including, notably his own.
BUT even Trump can do some good things. And in the case of the Ukraine war, this is apparent.
In early 2022, Ukraine’s President Zelensky was on the brink of signing a peace agreement with Russia. There’d be no loss of Ukraine territory, and no Ukraine NATO membership. Key Western leaders opposed this negotiation. On April 9, 2022, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived unannounced in Kiev and told the Ukrainian president that the West was not ready to end the war. Then in April, in Kiev, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. wants to use the opportunity to permanently weaken Russia militarily and economically. He went on , at a meeting of Western leaders in Germany, to declare a Ukrainian victory over Russia as a strategic goal for Europe and the USA.
Zelensky promptly switched policy, and this turned into his peripatetic jaunts to the USA and Europe, to drum up weaponry for this determination to defeat Russia. In this, he had the mindless, and never flinching, support from Joe Biden, and NATO. All of which was most acceptable to America’s warhawks, and manna from Heaven to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing and General Dynamics.
The West then launched a propaganda campaign about Ukrainian forces defeating Russian forces. English language media continued to show only the Ukrainian perspective. Media scholars have studies this, but I can be sure just from my own experience of the Australian media.
I’ve noticed not only a constant theme that Ukraine can militarily defeat Russia, but that Ukraine IS winning the war. This has been accompanied by copious emotional stories about the Ukrainian civilian victims of Russia’s war. Terrible atrocities done by the Russians. And some atrocity reports are faked. In reality, atrocities have been committed also by Ukrainians, but these are rarely reported on.
With that unflinching support from the West, Russia’s steady progress in the war has been disregarded and downplayed. Now Russia now has the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change.
From 2022 until 2025, Biden and NATO would not countenance any serious suggestion of a negotiated end, such was their hatred of Russia. Near the end of his office, President Biden signed off on a huge number of weapons to Ukraine.
Donald Trump promised to end the war. In March this year, he stopped all military aid to Ukraine, including weapons already in transit. He’s against NATO membership for Ukraine – as just “not practical”, and does not expect that Ukraine will get back all of its land.
Ukraine has extended martial law until 6 August following Zelensky’s request This will prevent elections from being held before then, and enable Zelensky to stay in power. However, Zelensky could use fraudulent voter lists as a means of gaining re-election.
Critics , (including myself) have stressed Trump’s aim to make money for American companies out of a peace agreement. Well, so what? American weapons companies have been making $billions out of the war.
The thing is, despite all Trump’s negative aspects, he really does not like war. And with the Trump presidency, there is at last the opportunity to end this pointless slaughter, and avoid a wider war – something that was not possible under a Democrat administration.
As to Trump “not liking war” – that is another story to be explored. He likes to bully people with the threat of war. And that may turn out to be a dangerous way to go.
Zelensky’s plan for peace involves Ukraine getting back all the Russian-occupied land, including Crimea, (formally part of Russia since 2014) , and Ukraine headed to become a NATO member.
Europe, and all Westerners who buy into the Joe Biden view of Ukraine seem now still holding onto the idea of a military victory by Ukraine, over Russia. Zelensky’s unrealistic plan for a ceasefire can be disregarded. At least Trump offers a realistic way towards peace. And for that, he deserves acknowledgment.
1 This month
of the week – Disrupting War & Militarism in Oceania. Active solidarity. Radical practice.
Antinuclear 