Political Futures: Can the Influence of the Political Far Right be Tamed Across Regional Australia?

15 February 2026 Denis Bright

The Farrer by-election offers a real opportunity for Australian Progressive Politics. This by-election is a potential change-maker.

Conservative representatives have an enormous swathe of regional federal electorates across Australia. In Queensland, these conservative electorates extend into coastal areas north of the Petrie electorate in Brisbane with the current exception of Leichhardt. The twilight zone of adversarial politics extends from the regions to outer metro areas like Longman in Brisbane’s Outer North and even Canning in Metro Perth’s South.

In Canning, Andrew Hastie MP with 42.5 percent of the primary vote scored a swing of 1 percent on his primary vote. This result was built up to 56.6 percent after preference allocations from far-right parties. In Canning the supportive preferences for the LNP came from One Nation and the Citizens’ Party.

A victory for a more moderate Independent in Farrer would have immense national significance in cooling the adversarial nature of politics in regional areas and in outer metro areas.

At this stage, the outcomes of the Farrer by-election are impossible to anticipate. With the support of preference flows from Labor and the Greens, Independent Michelle Milthorpe has a real chance of success. Her significant support against Sussan Ley in the 2025 Australian elections has been well noted by political commentators (Image: Simplified AEC Map from SMH 13 February 2026):

Michelle Milthorpe has quite a following in Albury but her vote after preferences her vote was still 12 percent below Sussan Ley’s vote across the sprawling electorate in 2025 as shown by the overall voting returns:

The results in Albury itself divided approximately 55 to 45 percent in favour of Michelle Milthorpe after preferences. This was Michelle’s strongest support area of support.

The relative prosperity of large towns and farming districts across the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA) and Murray Valley distinguishes Farrer from some other regional electorates with higher levels of social disadvantage and a more marginal political category.

Drought conditions and excessive summer heat should click with a grassroots awareness of the need for more action against global warming and climate change. Conservatives detest Labor’s energy initiatives. Liberal Deputy leader, Senator Jane Hume, restated her commitment to nuclear power options (Insiders 14 February 2026).

The more disadvantaged regional electorates very occasionally to Labor in Page, Hinkler and Capricornia. Even Andrew Hastie’s seat of Canning was won by Labor in the substantial swings of 1983 and 1998.

Farrer has never taken this path since the formation of the electorate in 1949. It is far from being a swing seat for Labor. However, the election of a moderate and mainstream representative in Farrer is so important as a symbolic token for the future of regional Australian politics.

My articles for theaimn.net occasionally refer to The Rappville Factor in voting trends in less advantaged conservative regional electorates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Ionically, US academic opinion has strengthened our understanding of just why more disadvantaged communities respond to dog-whistle politics to vote against their own self-interest….

If humanity survives this Trump era and learns to control politically motivated media networks, I expect the 2030s to be a peaceful and left-leaning era in both Australia and globally. Future leaders try to tame global capitalism with more open trade and investment by applying the investment multiplier to deliver the essentials of affordable housing, environmental initiatives and other essentials through the resources available through both private and public sector networks.

Keeping Farrer out of the hands of the far-right is an important insurance premium against those never-ending cultural wars which deceive our most disadvantaged fellow-Australians into accepting the prevailing status quo in a thousand country towns and rural districts across regional Australia…………………….

The drift to more progressive policies is complicated by the rise of One Nation in recent polling. NSW State Independent Helen Dalton MP for Murray may stand as a One Nation Candidate. Helen Dalton represents voters in the Griffith-Deniliquin Districts……………………………………………………

Here is another opportunity for the Albanese Government to offer the unexpected outcomes like Environmental Protection legislation, the anti-hate speech measures and bans on inappropriate soft media influence on junior high school students.

From the side lines, negative comments about Angus Taylor’s leadership style have come from former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull whose own resignation from the LNP leadership paved the way for Scott Morrison to move Australia in a far-right direction………………………………

Progressive Liberals Should be Welcome in the Australian United Front