Antinuclear

Australian news, and some related international items

Fossil fuel scare campaign backfires – renewed boom in solar rooftops

February recorded more capacity than November. And now March capacity has shot 16 per cent higher than December.

This has got us thinking at Green Energy Markets that more fundamental and longer term drivers are potentially supporting this increased capacity.

it doesn’t quite work out the way the fossil fuel industry that dreamed up the PR campaign intended.  Households and businesses start worrying and think I need to take things into my own hands – and that happens to mean a solar system.

Rooftop solar enjoys second boom as fossil fuel scare campaign backfires, REneweconomy By  on 7 April 2017 It appears the fossil fuel industry’s scare campaign over renewable energy driving up the price of electricity is having the same desired effect that it had back in 2011, when they campaigned against placing a penalty on polluting the atmosphere with global warming gases.

Yep you guessed it – households and businesses are flocking to install solar on their rooftops.

Green Energy Markets’ Solar Report assessment of STC creation data shows that March hit levels of capacity not seen since the days of 45c to 60c premium feed-in tariffs in 201, when there was also an STC rebate that was twice to five times its current level.

All up, we estimate almost 92MW (92,000 kilowatts) of rooftop solar PV capacity created certificates in March……….

in November and December 2016 the market took off reaching levels of capacity similar to 2013 levels.  They held up well in January too, with 65.5MW registered for STCs, which was higher than every other month of 2016 bar November and December, and 11% above the 2015 monthly average – quite exceptional given the holiday period.

At the time we put this down to the well-worn sales technique the solar industry has employed in the past to get wavering customers to sign the dotted line.  This is the threat to get in now before the government pulls down the rebate. While the STC rebate was only dropping by not much more than $50 per kilowatt, sometimes customers don’t analyse these things rationally.

Then February recorded more capacity than November. And now March capacity has shot 16 per cent higher than December.

This has got us thinking at Green Energy Markets that more fundamental and longer term drivers are potentially supporting this increased capacity.

  1. Wholesale power prices doubling

First and foremost contract prices for wholesale power have reached extraordinary levels and these are flowing through to rises in retail electricity prices. 2018 baseload forward contracts are trading at about $100 or more – almost twice the levels when the carbon price was in place.

This is being felt most acutely by business customers, who pay separate fees for their energy consumption from network charges. Our analysis finds that the commercial sector (which we define at 10kW of bigger systems) is now a very big part of the solar market………

  1. The scare campaign that renewable energy is destroying the world

You could call this the Daily Terrorgraph effect – essentially the tabloids across Australia have discovered that stories alarming readers that the cost of just about everything is going through the roof help sell newspapers. Or at the very least earn tidy commissions via One Big Switch campaigns.

Also, suggestions the lights are about to go out for a third of the year also work well in capturing eyeballs.

While power price rises are undoubtedly real, in reality their impact on household budgets are not nearly as bad as the wall to wall coverage of our tabloids might suggest.  Also, the suggestion that the grid will melt down sending the lights out for a third of the year if we add just one more wind or solar farm is manifestly stupid.

But it seems such media coverage, irrespective of how poorly researched it might be, gets both households and business people very anxious, just like it did when the carbon price was under consideration.  It also helps if you have politicians spreading fear about power bills and reliability.

But it doesn’t quite work out the way the fossil fuel industry that dreamed up the PR campaign intended.  Households and businesses start worrying and think I need to take things into my own hands – and that happens to mean a solar system.

  1. Batteries, electric cars and the emergence of the technophile market segment This might be called the Tesla effect. Batteries and electric cars still don’t quite represent a readily affordable or compelling financial proposition for many households or businesses.  But they really like the idea of ultimately owning what they perceive to be a really cool piece of technological kit.  At present our evidence is only anecdotal, but we suspect the hype and excitement about batteries is driving customer enquiries to solar businesses.In the end these customers are baulking at laying down the cash just yet for the battery. But they think I can afford solar now as the first step, and later on when batteries and electric cars become cheaper I’ll get them too.

    We would warn readers that before they get too excited, that it’s still early days.  We can’t be sure the high levels of capacity seen from November until March are here to stay. But is starting to look very interesting.

    Tristan Edis is Director – Analysis & Advisory with Green Energy Markets. Green Energy Markets assists clients make informed investment, trading and policy decisions in the areas of clean energy and carbon abatement. Follow on Twitter: @TristanEdis  http://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-enjoys-second-boom-fossil-fuel-scare-campaign-backfires-97399/

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April 8, 2017 - Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, solar, storage

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