Antinuclear

• Despite the appearance of thawing tensions with North Korea, both Washington and Pyongyang have made several steps that suggest things could escalate soon.
• The US has quietly moved heavy firepower, like nuclear bombers and aircraft carriers, to the region.
• On the sidelines of important diplomatic meetings, talk of military action has been ever present, if not front and center.

While much of the world has celebrated the progress in talks between North Korea and South Korea before the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang next month, as well as an apparent thaw in tensions with North Korea, the US has taken steps to move heavy firepower to the region.

Though the US will delay its military exercises with South Korea until the end of the Paralympics in March, it has elsewhere trained for scenarios that seem tailor-made for fighting North Korea.

The New York Times reports that 48 Apache gunships and Chinook helicopters last month trained in Fort Bragg in North Carolina to move troops under artillery fire, and that soldiers will train next month to set up mobilization centres designed to quickly send forces overseas.

Surviving artillery fire and mastering the tricky logistics of an overseas deployment would be needed skills if conflict broke out with North Korea, as Pyongyang maintains a massive range of artillery guns pointing at Seoul, South Korea’s capital with 25 million people.

Besides the exercises, the US has for the second time ever positioned both its nuclear-capable bombers in its territory of Guam, just a short flight from North Korea.

In addition to the usual forward-deployed USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier in Japan, the USS Carl Vinson has also headed into the Pacific, while the smaller carriers USS Wasp and USS Bonhomme Richard also patrol the waters.

While the US military maintains that these exercises are routine and unrelated to North Korea, the increased tensions with Pyongyang bring scrutiny to every move.

Quiet – too quiet

While Secretary of State Rex Tillerson attended a meeting of 20 ministers this week in Vancouver, Canada to discuss sanctions implementation on North Korea, Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis joined and briefed the ministers on the US’s plan for military strikes.

On the North Korean side, things are also not as they seem. Although the inter-Korean talks will now continue regularly and indefinitely, most experts agree that Pyongyang will soon launch a satellite. Additionally, North Korea may hold a military parade in the days before the Olympics begin.

Although few expect the US to initiate conflict with North Korea while civilians from around the world gather in Northern South Korea to watch one of the world’s most important sporting events, a satellite launch provides a suitable target for a “bloody nose” strike, which the US is reportedly considering.

After a year in office, President Donald Trump’s foreign policy has an established history of upsetting norms. After a successful strike on Syria in April 2017, and a handful of unilateral foreign policy decisions going unpunished by supposedly riled actors, Trump’s White House may soon feel emboldened to make a statement.