Climate action is going in the right direction, but what now? What is a realistic aim?
| The world’s 1.5°C climate goal is slipping out of reach – so now what? Scientists say it is still theoretically possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but realistically that now seems practically impossible. Should we admit our failure and double down on holding warming below 2°C? As scientists frequently point out, 1.5°C isn’t a cliff edge. It isn’t a precisely calculated moment at which we know we will hit tipping points that turn the Amazon into a savannah or commit Antarctica’s ice sheets to a rapid collapse. While most scientists maintain that 1.5°C is still technically possible, the majority of those New Scientist spoke to think the goal will be missed. The idea of conceding that prospects for hitting 1.5°C are dead might seem irredeemably gloomy. But it is worth remembering the path we were on before the world adopted the goal in 2015. Five years earlier, climate pledges globally had us on track for up to 5°C of warming by 2100, an apocalyptic level that would be almost impossible to adapt to, given that we are already struggling to do so after heating Earth by just over a degree. Humanity shifted the goalposts at Paris, prioritising 1.5°C over 2°C. We have made significant progress to even have a chance of landing somewhere between the two. History may yet judge failure on 1.5°C as a success, given how much the rallying cry has dragged societies in the right direction. New Scientist 7th June 2022https://www.newscientist.com/article/2323175-the-worlds-1-5c-climate-goal-is-slipping-out-of-reach-so-now-what/ |
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