US and Western officials considering diplomacy as winter looms and Ukraine war cost may rise to $60 billion

The growing belief that there’s no military resolution to the war and the rising hope that Ukraine and Russia move toward starting talks comes as Ukraine needs additional military aid. The White House and Congress are expected to consider additional funds for assistance for Ukraine, potentially $40 billion to $60 billion, NBC News has reported. Some Republicans and Democrats have begun to question whether the U.S. should send additional tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine

Some U.S. and Western officials think neither side can win and see winter as a shot at diplomacy in Ukraine-Russia war

Russia and Ukraine are most likely looking to the slower tempo of battle this winter as a time to reset and refit their forces to be ready for a spring offensive.

nbc news, By Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Josh Lederman 14 Nov 22,

Some U.S. and Western officials increasingly believe that neither side can achieve all of their goals in the Ukraine war and are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine, officials familiar with the matter say.

Western defense officials question Ukraine’s ability to remove Russian troops completely from occupied areas, and if military operations on the ground stabilize over the winter that could underline that neither side is likely to achieve its goal of controlling the whole country, the officials said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly on matters of diplomacy.

“In the winter, everything slows down,” said a Western official with direct knowledge of military operations. “The potential for talks, we would like to see that happening.”

The official pointed to a statement by Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom last week about the potential for negotiations as possible “messaging” toward a diplomatic path.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan made a surprise visit last week to Kyiv, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and top Ukrainian officials. The White House National Security Council said the meetings were to “underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine and its people.” But two people familiar with the meetings and a Ukrainian government official said Sullivan did broach the idea of how the conflict can end and whether it could include a diplomatic solution. “He was testing the waters a bit,” a person familiar with the meetings said.

The Ukrainian official said that during his meetings, Sullivan raised the need for a diplomatic resolution to the war and made the point that Ukraine’s leverage would be strengthened — not weakened — if it expressed openness to ultimately negotiating with the Russians. The official said that Sullivan had not tried to pressure Ukraine to enter into negotiations immediately or to take any specific steps. Instead, the official said, Sullivan expressed the view that Ukraine would able to maintain the support of Western allies better if it is perceived as being willing to reach an end to the conflict through diplomacy……………………………………………

………………….. The growing belief that there’s no military resolution to the war and the rising hope that Ukraine and Russia move toward starting talks comes as Ukraine needs additional military aid. The White House and Congress are expected to consider additional funds for assistance for Ukraine, potentially $40 billion to $60 billion, NBC News has reported. Some Republicans and Democrats have begun to question whether the U.S. should send additional tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine. ………..  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-russia-war-winter-diplomacy-rcna56190—

November 15, 2022 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Uncategorized