Is climate change playing a role in Australia’s drought?
How bad is this drought and is it caused by climate change?
How do we define drought? What causes them? And are they getting worse?, Brisbane Times, By Peter Hannam , NOVEMBER 3, 2019
“………..Is climate change playing a role?
If droughts can be hard to pin down, explaining their connection to climate change adds to the complexity.
The facts are that scientists cannot say definitively that a specific drought is caused by climate change, but they can say definitively that climate change makes the effects of droughts stronger and more damaging.
Andy Pitman, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, recently ignited a brief firestorm over his comment to a business forum that “there is no link between climate change and drought”.
Some media jumped on his views, prompting his centre to issue a belated correction saying he erred by leaving out one word, as in “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”.
The indirect links, though, should be cause enough for concern in a country with Australia’s variable rainfall……..
Climate change is blamed for accelerating the winds that circle around Antarctica, drawing storm tracks further south so some miss the mainland.
By contrast, for some areas in southern Australia, rainfall is increasing during the warmer months. That shift, though, comes as little consolation for farmers now reliant on winter harvests……
While it’s not clear how annual rainfall totals will change in a warming world, future droughts will be hotter when they do arrive, says Ben Henley, a climate researcher at the University of Melbourne.
“We’re really quite concerned in southern Australia,” he says. “Even if we get the same degree of annual rainfall, if that’s falling in the hot time of the year, that’s more likely to be evaporated off.” …..
Is this the new normal?
Cutting-edge research includes work to investigate whether droughts such as the current one are likely to become more prolonged and more frequent…..
One smoking gun is that rainforests are now burning.
“By June 2018, they reported that all types of trees were dying, leaving a desert-like landscape of sand dunes replacing the normally vegetated scene,” the paper says.
As plants dry or die,the risk of major bushfires increases. And, as plants also help moderate the local climate through a process called evapotranspiration, when they die another hand brake on the heat is removed.
Some researchers believe the ambient conditions that led to the Millennium Drought have not yet broken down, says Greg Holland, an emeritus senior scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and formerly with the bureau.
“It’s quite possible … we never came out of it,” he says, adding a couple of wet years in 2010 and 2011 may have been “a bit of an hiatus in the middle”.
Indeed, while drought is measured against historical averages, it may be time to redefine what we considered as normal. “One smoking gun is that rainforests are now burning,” he says…….https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-bad-is-this-drought-and-is-it-caused-by-climate-change-20191024-p533xc.html
Scott Morrison doesn’t like even the “quiet people” speaking up
Morrison doesn’t like it when the quiet Australians start to speak up, Canberra Times, Ebony Bennett , 2 Nov 19,
In his government’s latest free-speech crackdown, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has vowed to outlaw civil society groups campaigning against Australian businesses that work with companies with dubious environmental, human rights or ethical records.
The bank ruled out lending to Adani, as did other banks – in part because AYCC’s Dollarmite protests were a real risk to their brand (this was before the banking royal commission tanked it) but also because Adani’s coal mine is a dud project that has failed to secure finance from virtually any bank or investor, except for billionaire Gautam Adani himself.
Scott Morrison says this style of campaigning “is a potentially more insidious threat to the Queensland economy and jobs and living standards than a street protest”.
That was in 2014, when former prime minister Tony Abbott proposed a ban on secondary boycotts. Australia’s competition laws already restrict secondary boycotts – but that is mostly targeted at unions, with exemptions for campaigns run by environmental and consumer groups……
Scott Morrison doesn’t like it when quiet Australians break their silence and take aim at dodgy companies or those who choose to provide services to them – especially when they’re in his favoured industries, like the coal industry. While the Coalition government rolls out the red carpet for the coal industry, it can’t pull up the drawbridge fast enough when it comes to renewables.
If the Minerals Council says jump, the federal government (and NSW and Queensland governments) say “how high?” Whereas the Coalition government has done its level best to kill off the renewables industry. Thankfully, in the long term they have been about as effective at killing off renewables as they have been at cutting emissions: hopeless.
The Morrison government regularly boasts about Australia’s record on renewables, but the fact is it is single-handedly destroying the holy trinity of renewable energy policy: the Renewable Energy Target (RET), the Australian Renewable Agency (ARENA) and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC).
Collectively, the RET, ARENA and the CEFC are responsible for unleashing $23.4 billion worth of investment in renewable energy over a five-year period (2013-18). But there’s nothing the Coalition loves more than throwing sand in the gears of the success of the renewables industry.
Looking ahead, the RET has been exhausted, ARENA is running out of money and the last bastion of renewable energy investment, the CEFC, is now being bastardised to fund fossil-fuel projects……..
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has gone to great pains to talk up renewables, but the truth is that the PM is quite happy to wreck the renewables revolution. He labels those who protest companies wrecking our environment as “selfish and indulgent”, but the truth is that under Scott Morrison, free speech is reserved only for people with paid jobs, and protests are only to be tolerated at convenient times, in convenient places.
If you don’t like it, shut up – or Scott Morrison will make you shut up.
How good is Australia?
- Ebony Bennett is deputy director at independent think tank the Australia Institute. Twitter: @ebony_bennett. https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6470618/morrison-doesnt-like-it-when-the-quiet-australians-start-to-speak-up/?cs=14246
Scott Morrison delivers a speech that sounds very like an attack on democracy
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Scott Morrison threatens crackdown on protesters who would ‘deny liberty’ https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/01/scott-morrison-threatens-crackdown-on-secondary-boycotts-of-mining-companies?CMP=share_btn_tw
PM signals action on secondary boycotts of resources companies and says progressives want to tell Australians ‘what you can say, what you can think’ Paul Karp @Paul_Karp Fri 1 Nov 2019 Scott Morrison has branded environmental protesters “anarchists” and threatened a radical crackdown on the right to protest in a speech claiming progressives are seeking to “deny the liberties of Australians”.In a speech to the Queensland Resources Council on Friday, the prime minister said a threat to the future of mining was coming from a “new breed of radical activism” and signalled the government would seek to apply penalties to those targeting businesses who provide services to the resources industry. Civil society groups, including the Human Rights Law Centre and Australian Conservation Foundation, and the Greens immediately attacked the proposal as undemocratic and a bid to stifle a social movement fighting for Australia to take action on climate change. Morrison told Australian corporations to listen to the “quiet shareholders” and not environmental protesters, who he suggested could shift targets from coal companies to all carbon-intensive industries including power generation, gas projects, abattoirs and airlines. In a speech proposing limits on free speech advocating boycotts against polluting companies, Morrison said progressives wanted to tell Australians “what you can say, what you can think and tax you more for the privilege of all of those instructions”. He claimed that “progressivism” – which he labelled a “new-speak type term”, invoking George Orwell – intends “to get in under the radar, but at its heart would deny the liberties of Australians”. “Apocalyptic in tone, it brooks no compromise,” Morrison said. “It’s all or nothing. Alternative views are not permitted.” He pointed to the “worrying development” of environmental groups targeting businesses or firms involved in the mining sector with “secondary boycotts”, such as businesses refusing to provide banking, insurance or consultancy services. “They are targeting businesses of all sizes, including small businesses, like contracting businesses in regional Queensland.” “Let me assure you this is not something my government intends to allow to go unchecked. “Together with the attorney general, we are working to identify mechanisms that can successfully outlaw these indulgent and selfish practices that threaten the livelihoods of fellow Australians.” But Morrison admitted the government “can’t force one Australian company to provide a service to another”. The Greens were quick to reverse the charge of intolerance and level it at Morrison, with acting leader Adam Bandt labelling him “a direct threat to Australian democracy and freedom of speech”. “The prime minister’s commitment to outlaw the peaceful, legal protest of Australian individuals and community groups reads like a move straight from the totalitarian’s playbook,” he said. |
It’s time that the Australian government declared a water emergency
Declaring a water emergency means putting people before profit, mo https://www.michaelwest.com.au/declaring-a-water-emergency-means-putting-people-before-profit/by Quentin Grafton and John Williams — 1 Nov 19, The current drought in Eastern Australia has focused the attention of all Australians on water but effective policy responses are missing in action. Isn’t it time to call it a water emergency? Quentin Grafton and John Williams report.
The dictionary defines an emergency as “a serious, unexpected, and often dangerous situation requiring immediate action”. If there is a climate emergency – and 330,000 Australians have already signed a petition to the Australian Government to declare a climate emergency – then surely there must also be a water emergency here, right now, in Australia. As in any emergency, it requires that we be told the truth and, importantly, act on the truth.
Political leaders, however, prefer the word ‘drought’ because Australia has experienced it in the past and it is ‘solved’ when the rains come. Politicians cannot be blamed for acts of nature. ‘Drought relief’ also gives politicians the opportunity to pretend to fix the problem while showing compassion for those doing it tough.
Income support in the form of a farm household allowance for eligible households with less than $5 million in assets, and that pays more than $30,000 per farming couple per year for up to four years, is, no doubt, very welcome to those who qualify. Unfortunately, it does not solve our water emergency. In this make-believe narrative, all blame accrues to the heavens.
The current drought began in 2017, and came less than 10 years after the Millennium Drought ended. Yet the nation’s elected leaders are surprised by another major drought. Like rabbits on the road facing the full beam of an approaching vehicle, they seem unable to move beyond last century solutions to respond to this water emergency.
Instead, they announce multi-billion dollar commitments of taxpayer money for dams, many of which won’t be completed for years and would never fill until the drought ends. Water extracted from the dams would also be subject to water extraction limits under the Basin Plan.
So why do Australian political leaders support dam building as a solution knowing that dams don’t make it rain or snow? Is it because they are stuck in the past, trapped in myths or delusions, or asleep at the wheel?
If only this were true. Australia could then solve the water emergency by simply ‘briefing’ the Prime Minister, Premiers, and Water Ministers about the 21st Century solutions to the water emergency.
They could be informed of solutions like comprehensive water accounting so that everyone knows who has the water and what it is being used for. Other solutions include water planning that leaves sufficient water in the dams for people to drink by setting enough water aside for the worst droughts, and water recycling and reuse by communities to reduce extraction. Or even managed aquifer recharge to reduce surface water evaporation, and dynamic water pricing that increases the volumetric price paid when dams have less water — the list goes on.
So what is getting in the way of implementing these solutions? Money, power, and influence. Both rent-seeking and regulatory capture, represent the demand for and the supply of water respectively, and are affecting decision-making that benefits particular interests, rather than the broader public interest.
Rent-seeking is when actions are undertaken by people and organisations outside of government to influence decision-making for self-interest, rather than for the sake of improving the decision. Many forms of rent-seeking are legal in Australia, including lobbying — a multi-billion-dollar business.
Rent-seeking allows privileged access to our elected leaders and advisors to those with the means to get it. For example, between 2014 and 2018 the NSW Irrigation Council had more than 25 water-related meetings with New South Wales Ministers, yet many non-industry and non-irrigation entities had only one meeting. All combined, Indigenous, catchment, and environment entities had just 20 per cent of the total number of ministerial meetings given to irrigation and industry entities in the period.
So what does privileged access mean? Decision-making that the NSW Natural Resources Commission has described, in relation the Barwon-Darling River Water Sharing Plan, that has
“…increased allowance for extractive use at lower flow classes that are critical to the environment. These provisions benefit the economic interest of a few upstream users over the ecological and social needs of the many”.
This decision-making contributed to the dire situation in the Murray-Darling Basin and the massive fish kills along the Darling River in January 2019. Sadly, it is just one of many examples of water decision-making not made in the public interest, and described by the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission in January this year as “gross maladministration”.
Billions of dollars in expenditure on irrigation infrastructure, including the construction of private dams, highlighted in the ABC’s Four Corners program in July 2019 Cash Splash, and supported by evidence in peer-reviewed academic research, shows that such subsidies are likely to reduce return flows from irrigators’ fields to groundwater, streams, and rivers.
Yet, the Australian Government has spent some $4 billion on subsidising irrigation infrastructure in the Murray-Darling Basin without any cost-benefit analysis or even comprehensive measures of the impacts on stream flows.
To add to our water woes, more billions of dollars have been allocated to further subsidise water infrastructure, including dams, and announced as a ‘solution’ to the water emergency. Such spending is highly unlikely to generate a net public benefit.
As Rome burns, people in towns like Wilcannia on the lower Darling get their drinking water from 10 litre cartons delivered from the back of trucks. In a desperate cry of help, and defiance, one Barkandji Elder from Wilcannia, Kerry ‘Sissy’ King, has a message for politicians to
“Come out here and see how you feel about living [with no water]. They’ve taken it from the nation that lives off the river system. Come and sit in the gutter with us.”
Australia must stop blaming the river and recognise that capture by special interests has led to this water emergency. It is not simply an act of God; it has arisen from a lack of planning and decision-making that benefit the few at the expense of the many. Neither drought relief nor dams are solutions. Instead, Australia needs its political leaders to lead, to put the national interest first, and to make decisions that place people before profit.
Climate change is bringing more extreme weather events to Sydney and Melbourne
Hail, cyclones and fire: Extreme weather risks on the rise, SMH, By Peter Hannam, November 1, 2019, Sydney and Melbourne will most likely be exposed to more intense hailstorms, tropical cyclones will track further south and bushfire risks will increase in most of Australia as the climate warms, new research shows.The modelling based on a 3 degree temperature rise is contained in a severe weather report to be released on Friday by IAG, the country’s largest general insurer, and the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.
“Climate change is not just about the future,” the report states. “There is already solid evidence that there have been measurable changes to weather and climate extremes with the [1 degree of] warming to date.”
Changing insurance claims data are among the indications that major damaging hail events for Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne have already been increasing in the past decade……
Insurance and other financial firms have been reassessing their risks to climate change, prodded in part by international groups such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.
IAG managing director Peter Harmer said there was “an urgent need for Australia to prepare for and adapt to climate change”.
“[It] is critical there is a co-ordinated national approach from governments, industries and businesses to build more resilient communities and reduce the impact of disasters.”
Executive manager of natural perils at IAG Mark Leplastrier said that, apart from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, communities had two main tools to shape the future risk profile: the tightening of land planning and improving building codes.
“There’s a huge opportunity to adapt,” he said……..https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/hail-cyclones-and-fire-extreme-weather-risks-on-the-rise-20191031-p536aw.html
December 2-13 UN Climate Summit in Madrid (Scott Morrison is supposed to attend?)
UN climate talks to take place in Madrid https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/un-climate-talks-to-take-place-in-madrid/news-story/49630507277946754406e42af4685d2c, Australian Associated Press
November 2, 2019, The United Nations has confirmed Spain will host the organisation’s annual climate conference after Chile pulled out following weeks of violent unrest.
UN Climate Change head Patricia Espinosa said in a statement that the conference, known as COP25, will now take place in Madrid on the same dates – December 2-13. Weeks of violent unrest led Chile to cancel the COP25 and its hosting of the APEC trade talks that Prime Minister Scott Morrison was due to attend in mid-November. The high-profile climate summit is slated to finalise negotiations around rules for the Paris emissions reduction targets – to which Australia has agreed. Countries were going to be encouraged to improve their pollution reduction goals. |
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Coal from six biggest miners in Australia produces more emissions than entire economy
Big emitting companies should be held responsible for the burning of their coal overseas, report says Adam Morton Environment editor, Guardian, @adamlmorton, Fri 1 Nov 2019 Coalmining in Australia by the nation’s six biggest coal producers ultimately results in more greenhouse gas emissions each year than the entire domestic economy.In the latest report to estimate the role fossil fuel businesses play in driving the climate crisis, researchers from the University of New South Wales calculated the total emissions from the coal and gas produced by Australia’s top carbon companies, from extraction to the resources being burned for energy, mostly overseas.
They found the top six coal producers – BHP Billiton, Glencore, Yancoal, Peabody, Anglo American and Whitehaven – were in 2018 linked to 551m tonnes of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Total emissions from all activity within Australia were 534m tonnes.
When the list was expanded to include Australia’s 10 biggest carbon producers, adding Chevron, Woodside, ExxonMobil and Santos, the combined emissions from their products was found to be 670m tonnes a year, equivalent to that from about 75% of global air traffic.
The UNSW report follows the Guardian’s global series The Polluters, which revealed 20 fossil fuel companies including BHP could be directly linked to more than one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions in the modern era. In Australia, it found a wave of planned developments by major fossil fuel companies across the north would significantly increase the amount of coal and gas the country planned to sell into Asia and could push the Paris climate agreement goals further beyond reach.
The report’s lead author, Jeremy Moss from the UNSW Practical Justice Initiative and a professor of political philosophy, said there was a clear case that big emitting companies, which the report calls “carbon majors”, should be held responsible for the consequences of their products……. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/01/six-biggest-coalminers-in-australia-produce-more-emissions-than-entire-economy
Hotter and drier- Australia’s weather records set to be broken this year
Australia’s annual heat records may melt after hot and dry October, The
Age, Peter Hannam, November 1, 2019 Almost the whole Australian mainland is likely to have a warmer and drier than normal final two months of the year, boosting the odds that 2019 will be the country’s hottest on record.
Nationally, maximum temperatures last month were almost 3 degrees above the 1961-90 average used by the Bureau of Meteorology, making it the second hottest October in records going back to 1910.
For the first 10 months of the year, average daytime temperatures are running at 1.88 degrees warmer than the 1961-90 yardstick, placing 2019 well on track to smash Australia’s record anomaly of 1.59 degrees set in 2013, the bureau said. Mean readings are in line with the record, also set in 2013.
October capped another dismal month for rainfall, with an average of 8.3 millimetres – or about a third of the monthly average. That made it Australia’s equal-fifth driest October.
Most of the nation shared the relatively hot and dry conditions. In NSW, for instance, it was the state’s fourth-hottest October – with daytime readings 3.3 degrees warmer than average – and its fifth driest with just a quarter of the usual rain.
So far in 2019, NSW is running at the hottest for any similar period for both mean and maximum temperatures, while having among the five driest January-October periods on record……
The bureau’s latest three-monthly outlook offers little relief for most of the country.
“November and December rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the country,” it said, adding that the relatively dry conditions were likely to extend through to the end of summer for most of eastern Australia.
For November to January, the odds are running at more than 80 per cent for warmer than average days for the Australian mainland…….https://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/australia-s-annual-heat-records-may-melt-after-hot-and-dry-october-20191101-p536mw.html
Scott Morrison’s threats against climate activists – getting a bit sinister
As he rails against activism, Scott Morrison is turning a bit sinister, a bit threatening, The government the PM leads finds activism inconvenient, but it is the same government that has sparked the activism. Guardian, Katharine Murphy Political editor, @murpharoo, Fri 1 Nov 2019 It takes some chutzpah to stand up with a straight face and deliver a speech foreshadowing a government crackdown on protest activity while in the same breath declaring that a new insidious form of progressivism is intent on denying the liberties of Australians.
But Scott Morrison has never lacked confidence.
In the florid prime ministerial tale unfurled on Friday at the Queensland Resources Council (and boy folks, it was a doozy), progressivism wanted to tell you what job you can have, what you can say, what you can think “and tax you more for the privilege of all of those instructions that are directed to you” – which made progressivism kind of busy, and a whole lot more organised and efficient than progressivism generally is.
We could, on Friday, have been treated to a measured prime ministerial reflection on the problems associated with cancellation culture. The Labor frontbencher Clare O’Neil showed this week that conversation can be attempted without everyone losing their minds. We could have had some words to bring the country together.
But after a brief touchdown in the goat’s cheese circle, which was somehow intrinsically hostile to mining in ways that weren’t really unpacked (and perhaps that might have been risky, given Morrison was addressing a business lunch where goat’s cheese might, accidentally, have featured) – we arrived, unexpectedly it must be said, at the sneering apocalypse.
Morrison warned that a new breed of #RadicalActivism™ was the on the march, “apocalyptic in tone, brooks no compromise, all or nothing, alternative views not permitted – a dogma that pits cities against regional Australia, one that cannot resist sneering at wealth creating and job creating industries, and the livelihoods particularly of regional Australians including here in Queensland”.
Apart from this being overhyped, high-velocity bollocks, it pays to remember right at this juncture that the actual purpose of Morrison’s address on Friday was to foreshadow a government crackdown against forms of activism and protests that the Coalition and the mining industry finds inconvenient.
So, just in case this unclear, let me spell it out: we were being treated to the spectacle of a prime minister teeing off against intolerance while in the same breath foreshadowing his own bout of government sanctioned intolerance – the type where police might be involved, and people might be bundled away in vans.
Yes, that happened. I saw it, because the prime minister’s speech was broadcast outside Queensland. It wasn’t always clear that Morrison knew the audience looking on at lunchtime on Friday might be broader than the residents of central Queensland, but it was broadcast nationally. To the south-east corner of the sunshine state, and Sydney, and Melbourne.
Unremarked in this stirring presentation was the fact that climate-related activism is building right at the moment, both at the community level, from the schoolkids to the grandmas, and also at the shareholder level, in large part because the Coalition has invited it.
The government who finds this activism inconvenient is the same government who has sparked the activism, given its purpose and salience and traction, because of its own woeful record on climate change……..
Apart from the perversity of a government railing against a set of conditions it has, itself, created, there was also the curiosity about carbon risk, which was presented implicitly by Morrison as a fiction of progressivism, #RadicalActivism™ and the sneering apocalypse. ………
This strange diktat will be news to the regulators – the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission – who are calmly out in the marketplace warning stakeholders on a regular basis to get their houses in order or risk being stranded in the inevitable transition, who present carbon risk as what it is: a threat to financial stability in Australia.
They’ll be astonished to learn they are the unwitting tools of the deep progressive state, co-opted by the noisy Australians. Shh, no one tell them.
This strange diktat will be news to the regulators – the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission – who are calmly out in the marketplace warning stakeholders on a regular basis to get their houses in order or risk being stranded in the inevitable transition, who present carbon risk as what it is: a threat to financial stability in Australia.
They’ll be astonished to learn they are the unwitting tools of the deep progressive state, co-opted by the noisy Australians. Shh, no one tell them. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/01/as-he-rails-against-activism-morrison-turns-a-bit-sinister-a-little-bit-threatening
Climate change – iconic Macquarie Marshes on fire
Key points:
- Since Saturday, around 3,000 hectares of Ramsar-protected national park has burnt out
- An ecologist fears the fire may destroy the unique ecosystem of Macquarie Marshes — home to numerous waterbirds
- Fires have swept through before, but the soil is dryer than usual with a flood over the next year needed for reed roots to survive
The Ramsar-protected wetland regularly supports more than 20,000 waterbirds, and more than 500,000 birds when there are large floods.
But the blaze, which started on Saturday, has so far burnt 3,000 hectares of national park and early estimates suggest 90 per cent of the wetland’s main reed bed has been razed.
Director of the Centre for Ecosystem Science at the University of New South Wales Professor Richard Kingsford feared the fire could destroy the unique ecosystem.
“Reeds are very deep-rooted plants, but they can only come back if there’s water in the system,” Professor Kingsford said…….
Drought, fire threaten endangered species
Professor Kingsford has been studying waterbirds in the Macquarie Marshes for almost 30 years.
Right now it was the driest he had ever seen it.
“It’s almost impossible to find any water in the northern part of the Macquarie Marshes,” he said.
“Water birds there are extremely low in numbers and when we were out there in September there were a lot of dead and dying animals around……
Massive flood needed
Floodplain landholder Dugald Bucknell runs his grazing operation alongside the national park.
He described the latest wildfire as the “devastating” consequence of drought and failed water policy.
In August, the Berejiklian Government intervened to divert water from the Macquarie River at Warren to drought-hit towns such as Cobar and Nyngan.
“There’s no water in Burrendong Dam upstream of the marshes, there’s virtually no water in stock and domestic dams downstream of it, and somehow we’re meant to wish for a miracle to re-wet our marshlands,” Mr Bucknell said.
He said the wetlands were not getting the water they needed to survive and feared more fires would follow.
“It’s becoming unsustainable. Its frightening,” Mr Bucknell said.
“We’re killing off our kids’ and grandkids’ future to take a bit more water elsewhere in the system.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-28/macquarie-marshes-on-fire-90pc-reed-bed-razed/11645914
Some good news for a change: Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are set to fall
In a policy brief released today, we predict that Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions will peak during 2019-20 at the equivalent of about 540 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
After a brief plateau, we expect they will decline by 3-4% over 2020-22, and perhaps much more in the following years – if backed by government policy.
Australia: a renewables superstar
Deployment of solar and wind energy is the cheapest and quickest way to make deep emissions cuts because of its low and falling cost. Higher deployment rates would yield deeper emissions cuts, but this requires supportive government policy.
Australia: a renewables superstar
Deployment of solar and wind energy is the cheapest and quickest way to make deep emissions cuts because of its low and falling cost. Higher deployment rates would yield deeper emissions cuts, but this requires supportive government policy.
The emissions road ahead
Continued rapid deployment of solar and wind requires that governments enable construction of adequate electricity transmission and storage.
In the longer term, solar and wind can cut national emissions by two-thirds. Beyond the electricity sector, this involves electrifying motor vehicles, residential heating and cooling and industrial heating. National emissions could be cut by another 10% by stopping exports of fossil fuels, which creates fugitive emissions.
85 fires burning across New South Wales
Warnings issued as dozens of bushfires burn across New South Wales, Almost 1200 firefighters are tackling large bushfires on the NSW mid-north coast among scores of blazes around the state. SBS, 27 Oct 19,Warning levels for two bushfires on the NSW mid-north coast have been increased to watch and act, with close to 1200 firefighters battling 85 blazes around the state.
An out-of-control blaze in the Darawank area, north of Forster-Tuncurry, has burnt more than 2300 hectares, the NSW Rural Fire Service said.
Fire activity has increased under the influence of erratic winds, it said in a statement on Sunday afternoon. The fire has crossed The Lakes Way and is burning towards Failford, where smoke and ashes may be encountered.
“There are a number of small active areas throughout the fireground,” NSW RFS said.
“Firefighters and aircraft continue work to slow the spread of the fire.”
The blaze is producing large amounts of smoke……..
At midday some 85 fires were burning across the state with 45 not contained.
Nearly 1200 firefighters are working to contain the fires, NSW RFS said.
Embers from the Tuncurry blaze travelled kilometres ahead of the fire front on Saturday, creating spot fires in suburban backyards and the headland at Forster Main Beach……https://www.sbs.com.au/news/warnings-issued-as-dozens-of-bushfires-burn-across-nsw
Why we can’t trust Scott Morrison – his REAL climate policy
to cut a long story short, Morrison has signed a document with Pacific leaders, with the “family”, that suggests we are as one when it comes to managing the risks of climate change, yet in reality we have very different policies, goals and objectives.
It pays to remember things like this when our prime minister asks you to trust him.
Scott Morrison’s climate pact with the Pacific ‘family’ exposes the hollowness of his words, One small exchange in Senate estimates has exposed the measurable gap between the prime minister’s rhetoric and actions, Guardian, Katharine Murphy Political editor, @murpharoo 24 Oct 19,“………. Morrison wants one thought to penetrate the great national switch-off: he wants voters to trust him. He wants voters to believe he is a man of his word, that he means what he says, and follows through on commitments. It seems an audacious strategy for a leader in an age when people are inclined to think all politicians stink, but that’s what Morrison wants.
Trust. With that thought in mind, it was interesting this week to watch one small exchange in Senate estimates exposing a measurable gapbetween the prime minister’s rhetoric and actions. Readers will remember Morrison took some heat at the Pacific Islands Forum earlier in the year when he presented as insufficiently empathetic about the threat the climate emergency posed to the region. There were some harsh words. But at the end of the day, despite all the thundering and virtue signalling on the greatness of coal, Australia signed on to a communique that was actually pretty forward leaning on climate change. As I noted at the time, despite all the arm twisting in Tuvalu, Morrison did, in the end, sign up to a statement that committed Australia to pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C, and to produce a 2050 strategy by 2020 – no small things. This 2050 strategy, the statement said, “may include commitments and strategies to achieve net zero carbon by 2050”. Navigating that harmonious landing point with Pacific leaders was, presumably, an important gesture for an Australian prime minister fond of calling his counterparts in the region “family”. But Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, during this week’s Senate estimates hearings, decided to do a little bit of due diligence about what Australia had actually signed up to at the Pacific Islands Forum, and whether we actually meant it. With foreign affairs department officials arrayed before her, Wong asked first whether or not Australia had sought any reservations or exceptions to the PIF communique (which just means did we opt out of any part of the statement). Kathy Klugman, the official responsible for Pacific strategy, said no exceptions had been sought. When it came to the PIF communique, Australia was all in. Having established that we were all in, Wong professed some curiosity that the Morrison government had signed a communique declaring that a “climate change crisis” was facing Pacific Island nations, when the Coalition rejects that language at home as alarmism. Were we on board with that bit – the climate crisis? Klugman replied that Australia had signed the declaration and “we associate ourselves with all parts of it, including that part”. Wong then asked whether the government agreed that emissions needed to be reduced to net zero by 2050 in order to achieve the goals articulated in the PIF declaration. Things then got a bit stickier. Clare Walsh, a deputy secretary of the department, joined the conversation. Walsh noted that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 was “an aspiration by some countries”. But the Australian government had not signed on to that “in terms of its domestic application”, she said. Wong then translated. So we’ve associated ourselves with that objective internationally in this communique, but would not take the requisite action domestically? Walsh ploughed on. She said the PIF declaration recognised the importance of that issue to the Pacific and recognised net zero by 2050 as a “commonly referenced target – but it isn’t one that Australia has signed up to domestically, no”. Wong then wondered why Australia had signed up to a document which said pursuing global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels was “critical to the security of our Blue Pacific” when Australia’s domestic emissions reduction targets – the ones we’ve signed on to as part of the Paris agreement – were not consistent with achieving the 1.5C objective. Was the government planning to increase the level of ambition to square those circles, Wong wondered? “There is no change to the government’s policy senator,” noted the foreign minister, Marise Payne, who was at the table. Wong evidently thought she’d reached the moment to deliver the moral of the story. “So we go along to the PIF and tell them we think 1.5C is important but we are not prepared to put targets on the table that are anywhere near consistent with it – just so we are clear about what we are doing,” she said. Payne replied that Wong could “put it in those terms” but the government had been very clear it was persisting with the policies it took to the election. So, to cut a long story short, Morrison has signed a document with Pacific leaders, with the “family”, that suggests we are as one when it comes to managing the risks of climate change, yet in reality we have very different policies, goals and objectives. It pays to remember things like this when our prime minister asks you to trust him. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/26/scott-morrisons-climate-pact-with-the-pacific-family-exposes-the-hollowness-of-his-words |
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Climate change and the prospects this year for the Darling River
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Summer outlook ‘dire’ for Murray-Darling, Brisbane Times, Matt Coughlan, October 25, 2019 The head of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has warned of dire conditions across the crucial river system with the situation expected to worsen during a hot and dry summer.MDBA chief executive Phillip Glyde said the most critical situation was in the drought-ravaged northern basin where some water storages are as low as “one or two per cent”.
“Conditions are dire in the north,” he told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra on Friday. Total storage in the basin is at 39.7 per cent with the southern basin at 44 per cent. While not as dire, if there is no significant rainfall in winter and spring next year, the southern basin’s water resources will also be severely limited,” Mr Glyde said. The Bureau of Meteorology found the 33 months between January 2017 and September this year were the driest average on record across the basin. The bureau has also forecast low flows for the rest of spring and summer, with a warm and dry pattern likely to continue through to January. “These conditions continue to place immense pressure on communities, industries and the environment,” Mr Glyde said………. The bureau has also forecast low flows for the rest of spring and summer, with a warm and dry pattern likely to continue through to January. “These conditions continue to place immense pressure on communities, industries and the environment,” Mr Glyde said……… Nationals senator and committee chair Susan McDonald said the Murray-Darling Basin was probably Australia’s most important issue. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/summer-outlook-dire-for-murray-darling-20191025-p5346u.html |
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Angus Taylor repeats misleading claim on carbon emissions yet again
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Angus Taylor repeats misleading claim on carbon emissions yet again https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-24/zombie—angus-taylor-emissions-abatement-kyoto-protocol/11630780
RMIT ABC Fact Check
Posted Thu at 9:21am As the nation continues to grapple with drought and unseasonably early bushfires, climate change remains a point of political focus. The Morrison Government has repeatedly claimed the Coalition — through its own hard work — turned around Australia’s poor record on greenhouse gas emissions that it says was inherited from the former Labor government. The latest Coalition MP to make such a claim is Energy Minister Angus Taylor.
Senior Coalition figures, including Prime Minister Scott Morrison, have made similar claims on numerous occasions. Why this claim is misleadingFact Check previously examined this claim and found it to be misleading. Among other things, the so-called emissions “deficit” referred to by Mr Morrison was taken from an October 2012 report, and merely represented a forecast of the greenhouse gas reductions needed to hit Australia’s 2020 target at that time. Soon after the Coalition came to office, it became apparent that emissions under Labor’s carbon tax had been lower than expected in a report released in September 2013, which superseded the 2012 report. Government officials also for the first time factored in a significant “carryover” from the overachievement of Australia’s 2012 target. Since then, emissions have been lower than anticipated as a result of soaring power prices, the states’ adoption of renewable energy and the closure of coal-fired power stations, including Victoria’s Hazelwood plant. The bottom line is, when it comes to achieving Australia’s 2020 Kyoto target, the Coalition actually “inherited” a relatively strong position from Labor. In 2013 and 2014, when Labor’s carbon tax was still in force, Australia was significantly ahead of the target for those years. Over time, as emissions under the Coalition have steadily risen, the gap between actual emissions and the target has gradually narrowed. As experts noted in our previous fact check, the Coalition’s “direct action” fund did achieve some abatement at a reasonable price, but a comparatively modest amount. For these reasons, Fact Check judges the claim repeated by Mr Taylor this week once again to be misleading. |
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