85 fires burning across New South Wales
Warnings issued as dozens of bushfires burn across New South Wales, Almost 1200 firefighters are tackling large bushfires on the NSW mid-north coast among scores of blazes around the state. SBS, 27 Oct 19,Warning levels for two bushfires on the NSW mid-north coast have been increased to watch and act, with close to 1200 firefighters battling 85 blazes around the state.
An out-of-control blaze in the Darawank area, north of Forster-Tuncurry, has burnt more than 2300 hectares, the NSW Rural Fire Service said.
Fire activity has increased under the influence of erratic winds, it said in a statement on Sunday afternoon. The fire has crossed The Lakes Way and is burning towards Failford, where smoke and ashes may be encountered.
“There are a number of small active areas throughout the fireground,” NSW RFS said.
“Firefighters and aircraft continue work to slow the spread of the fire.”
The blaze is producing large amounts of smoke……..
At midday some 85 fires were burning across the state with 45 not contained.
Nearly 1200 firefighters are working to contain the fires, NSW RFS said.
Embers from the Tuncurry blaze travelled kilometres ahead of the fire front on Saturday, creating spot fires in suburban backyards and the headland at Forster Main Beach……https://www.sbs.com.au/news/warnings-issued-as-dozens-of-bushfires-burn-across-nsw
Why we can’t trust Scott Morrison – his REAL climate policy
to cut a long story short, Morrison has signed a document with Pacific leaders, with the “family”, that suggests we are as one when it comes to managing the risks of climate change, yet in reality we have very different policies, goals and objectives.
It pays to remember things like this when our prime minister asks you to trust him.
 Scott Morrison’s climate pact with the Pacific ‘family’ exposes the hollowness of his words, One small exchange in Senate estimates has exposed the measurable gap between the prime minister’s rhetoric and actions, Guardian, Katharine Murphy Political editor, @murpharoo 24 Oct 19,“………. Morrison wants one thought to penetrate the great national switch-off: he wants voters to trust him. He wants voters to believe he is a man of his word, that he means what he says, and follows through on commitments. It seems an audacious strategy for a leader in an age when people are inclined to think all politicians stink, but that’s what Morrison wants.
Trust. With that thought in mind, it was interesting this week to watch one small exchange in Senate estimates exposing a measurable gapbetween the prime minister’s rhetoric and actions. Readers will remember Morrison took some heat at the Pacific Islands Forum earlier in the year when he presented as insufficiently empathetic about the threat the climate emergency posed to the region. There were some harsh words. But at the end of the day, despite all the thundering and virtue signalling on the greatness of coal, Australia signed on to a communique that was actually pretty forward leaning on climate change. As I noted at the time, despite all the arm twisting in Tuvalu, Morrison did, in the end, sign up to a statement that committed Australia to pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C, and to produce a 2050 strategy by 2020 – no small things. This 2050 strategy, the statement said, “may include commitments and strategies to achieve net zero carbon by 2050”. Navigating that harmonious landing point with Pacific leaders was, presumably, an important gesture for an Australian prime minister fond of calling his counterparts in the region “family”. But Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, during this week’s Senate estimates hearings, decided to do a little bit of due diligence about what Australia had actually signed up to at the Pacific Islands Forum, and whether we actually meant it. With foreign affairs department officials arrayed before her, Wong asked first whether or not Australia had sought any reservations or exceptions to the PIF communique (which just means did we opt out of any part of the statement). Kathy Klugman, the official responsible for Pacific strategy, said no exceptions had been sought. When it came to the PIF communique, Australia was all in. Having established that we were all in, Wong professed some curiosity that the Morrison government had signed a communique declaring that a “climate change crisis” was facing Pacific Island nations, when the Coalition rejects that language at home as alarmism. Were we on board with that bit – the climate crisis? Klugman replied that Australia had signed the declaration and “we associate ourselves with all parts of it, including that part”. Wong then asked whether the government agreed that emissions needed to be reduced to net zero by 2050 in order to achieve the goals articulated in the PIF declaration. Things then got a bit stickier. Clare Walsh, a deputy secretary of the department, joined the conversation. Walsh noted that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 was “an aspiration by some countries”. But the Australian government had not signed on to that “in terms of its domestic application”, she said. Wong then translated. So we’ve associated ourselves with that objective internationally in this communique, but would not take the requisite action domestically? Walsh ploughed on. She said the PIF declaration recognised the importance of that issue to the Pacific and recognised net zero by 2050 as a “commonly referenced target – but it isn’t one that Australia has signed up to domestically, no”. Wong then wondered why Australia had signed up to a document which said pursuing global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels was “critical to the security of our Blue Pacific” when Australia’s domestic emissions reduction targets – the ones we’ve signed on to as part of the Paris agreement – were not consistent with achieving the 1.5C objective. Was the government planning to increase the level of ambition to square those circles, Wong wondered? “There is no change to the government’s policy senator,” noted the foreign minister, Marise Payne, who was at the table. Wong evidently thought she’d reached the moment to deliver the moral of the story. “So we go along to the PIF and tell them we think 1.5C is important but we are not prepared to put targets on the table that are anywhere near consistent with it – just so we are clear about what we are doing,” she said. Payne replied that Wong could “put it in those terms” but the government had been very clear it was persisting with the policies it took to the election. So, to cut a long story short, Morrison has signed a document with Pacific leaders, with the “family”, that suggests we are as one when it comes to managing the risks of climate change, yet in reality we have very different policies, goals and objectives. It pays to remember things like this when our prime minister asks you to trust him. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/26/scott-morrisons-climate-pact-with-the-pacific-family-exposes-the-hollowness-of-his-words |
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Climate change and the prospects this year for the Darling River
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Summer outlook ‘dire’ for Murray-Darling, Brisbane Times, Matt Coughlan, October 25, 2019 The head of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has warned of dire conditions across the crucial river system with the situation expected to worsen during a hot and dry summer.MDBA chief executive Phillip Glyde said the most critical situation was in the drought-ravaged northern basin where some water storages are as low as “one or two per cent”.
“Conditions are dire in the north,” he told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra on Friday. Total storage in the basin is at 39.7 per cent with the southern basin at 44 per cent. While not as dire, if there is no significant rainfall in winter and spring next year, the southern basin’s water resources will also be severely limited,” Mr Glyde said. The Bureau of Meteorology found the 33 months between January 2017 and September this year were the driest average on record across the basin. The bureau has also forecast low flows for the rest of spring and summer, with a warm and dry pattern likely to continue through to January. “These conditions continue to place immense pressure on communities, industries and the environment,” Mr Glyde said………. The bureau has also forecast low flows for the rest of spring and summer, with a warm and dry pattern likely to continue through to January. “These conditions continue to place immense pressure on communities, industries and the environment,” Mr Glyde said……… Nationals senator and committee chair Susan McDonald said the Murray-Darling Basin was probably Australia’s most important issue. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/summer-outlook-dire-for-murray-darling-20191025-p5346u.html |
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Angus Taylor repeats misleading claim on carbon emissions yet again
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Angus Taylor repeats misleading claim on carbon emissions yet again https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-24/zombie—angus-taylor-emissions-abatement-kyoto-protocol/11630780
RMIT ABC Fact Check
Posted Thu at 9:21am As the nation continues to grapple with drought and unseasonably early bushfires, climate change remains a point of political focus. The Morrison Government has repeatedly claimed the Coalition — through its own hard work — turned around Australia’s poor record on greenhouse gas emissions that it says was inherited from the former Labor government. The latest Coalition MP to make such a claim is Energy Minister Angus Taylor.
Senior Coalition figures, including Prime Minister Scott Morrison, have made similar claims on numerous occasions. Why this claim is misleadingFact Check previously examined this claim and found it to be misleading. Among other things, the so-called emissions “deficit” referred to by Mr Morrison was taken from an October 2012 report, and merely represented a forecast of the greenhouse gas reductions needed to hit Australia’s 2020 target at that time. Soon after the Coalition came to office, it became apparent that emissions under Labor’s carbon tax had been lower than expected in a report released in September 2013, which superseded the 2012 report. Government officials also for the first time factored in a significant “carryover” from the overachievement of Australia’s 2012 target. Since then, emissions have been lower than anticipated as a result of soaring power prices, the states’ adoption of renewable energy and the closure of coal-fired power stations, including Victoria’s Hazelwood plant. The bottom line is, when it comes to achieving Australia’s 2020 Kyoto target, the Coalition actually “inherited” a relatively strong position from Labor. In 2013 and 2014, when Labor’s carbon tax was still in force, Australia was significantly ahead of the target for those years. Over time, as emissions under the Coalition have steadily risen, the gap between actual emissions and the target has gradually narrowed. As experts noted in our previous fact check, the Coalition’s “direct action” fund did achieve some abatement at a reasonable price, but a comparatively modest amount. For these reasons, Fact Check judges the claim repeated by Mr Taylor this week once again to be misleading. |
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Australian Prime Minister Morrison’s attitude to Pacific Islanders – “Take the Money and Shut Up about Climate Change”
 Take the money and shut up’: Ex-Tuvalu PM slams Morrison’s climate bargaining, The Pacific nation of Tuvalu is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. SBS News has spoken to its former leader about Australia’s ‘lack of climate action’.
SBS 23 OCT 19
BY NICK BAKER
Former Tuvalu Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga has accused the Morrison government of trying to buy the silence of Pacific Island leaders who are vocal about climate change. Mr Sopoaga, who has been a fierce advocate on climate change action, told SBS News on Wednesday that Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s climate policies were “un-Pacific” and that Australia was letting down the region. Earlier this year, Australia said it will steer $500 million of existing aid towards the Pacific to help the region cope with climate change. But Mr Sopoaga said some Pacific leaders felt like they were being told to “take the money and shut up”. “Putting this money on the table – $500 million – and then expecting Pacific Island countries like Tuvalu to say ‘OK, we’ll stop talking about climate change’, it’s not on … This is completely irresponsible.” He said greater action on climate change back in Australia was more important than Pacific aid. “Any amount of money that is coming with the Step-Up [Pacific aid program] cannot be seen as an excuse for no action at a domestic level to cut down on greenhouse emissions.”…….. HTTPS://WWW.SBS.COM.AU/NEWS/TAKE-THE-MONEY-AND-SHUT-UP-EX-TUVALU-PM-SLAMS-MORRISON-S-CLIMATE-BARGAINING
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Scott Morrison on the drought (“Climate” is a dirty word)
Scott Morrison says drought the Coalition’s ‘first call’ – but makes no mention of climate
Prime minister suggests Coalition may commit to extra funding relief in Liberal party federal council speech, Ben Doherty, @bendohertycorro, Sat 19 Oct 2019 The Guardian
Scott Morrison has indicated the federal government might be prepared to commit extra relief funding to drought-stricken communities, reaffirming the drought is the government’s top priority.
In a triumphal speech to the Liberal party’s federal council in Canberra on Saturday, Morrison again said the drought was “the most pressing and biggest call on our budget”.
“It is the first cab off the rank, the first thing we sit together and say, ‘Once we have done everything we can in this area, then we can consider other priorities’…….
The prime minister did not mention the climate crisis while detailing the government’s three-phase drought response package thus far: the farm household allowance for eligible farming families; the drought communities program dedicating $100m to councils affected by the drought; and long-term drought resilience plans, including money for new dams and the drought future fund. ………
The government has been criticised by Labor for moving too slowly on the drought. Accusing the government of “six years of inaction”, Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon has called for a bipartisan drought war cabinet to be established.
“What began as crisis for our farmers fast moved to a crisis for our rural townships, which are literally running out of water,” he said. “And I fear that we now are fast approaching a threat to our food security … We need to sit the major parties down together and to start making some pretty significant decisions.”
The drought response has also been questioned by some councils, including Moyne shire in south-west Victoria, which was given $1m despite not being in drought and whose mayor said he wanted to refuse it……. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/19/scott-morrison-says-drought-the-coalitions-first-call-but-makes-no-mention-of-climate
Barkindji people have title to Darling River area – but their river is dying, killed by drought, and whiteys’mismanagement
Indigenous community say they’ve lost their culture to water mismanagement, SBS, This is the final part in a series of reports from communities along NSW’s Darling River that have been impacted by water mismanagement and drought. BY ANEETA BHOLE 18 Oct 19, An Aboriginal community in rural NSW fears their culture may be lost, as dry conditions and low river flows threaten the future of the Darling River.
The Barkindji people have lived, hunted and passed down their oral history on the banks of the Darling for more than 40,000 years.
Now the river is drying up due to over-extraction by irrigation upstream and drought.
The community’s fears surfaced at a recent corroboree in the small town of Wilcannia, which was once a thriving Murray-Darling River port.
The Yaama Ngunna Barka corroboree had been travelling to towns along the river from Walgett to Menindee. The corroboree have been travelling to towns in outback New South Wales in a bid to raise awareness about the plight of the Darling river.
‘Dead water’
Lilliana Bennett can still recall her grandmother talking about taking the family down the riverbank to fish and hunt for goanna. The river was a place of safety and community for her family.
“It’s a place they go to relax, to tell stories,” she told SBS News.
“For me, it’s been really devastating, I mean we went down and camped by the river where there’s still a bit of water around and it just doesn’t have the same feeling, it’s dead water.”…….
With water levels at an all-time low and the drought continuing to ravage the region, native animals have also started to disappear from the river banks. Many with spiritual significance. …….
The Barkindji community fought for Native Title of the land – covering 128,000 square kilometres — from Wentworth at the Victorian border to near Wanaaring in the state’s north-west, including Broken Hill, Wilcannia, Menindee, Pooncarie and Dareton.
They started the claim in 1997 and won two decades later, but many have said without water flowing in the river they feel robbed. …….
Case for change
Last month, the National Resources Commission (NRC) released an independent report looking into the water-sharing plan of the Barwon-Darling River system.
The system takes in the the Barwon River, from upstream of Mungindi at the confluence of the Macintyre and Weir rivers, to where the Barwon meets the Culgoa River.
At this point the river channel becomes the Darling River and the Barwon–Darling system extends downstream to the Menindee Lakes.
It found that provisions that allow increased access to low flows resulted in poor ecological and social outcomes downstream of Bourke, including the town of Wilcannia where part of the Barkindji community live.
The NRC has made 17 recommendations, including one which has called for stricter regulation of when irrigators, including cotton farmers, can pump water from the river………. HTTPS://WWW.SBS.COM.AU/NEWS/INDIGENOUS-COMMUNITY-SAY-THEY-VE-LOST-THEIR-CULTURE-TO-WATER-MISMANAGEMENT
Morrison government’s drought policy mess
Has drought policy become a casualty of the federal-state blame game? ABC The Conversation By Michelle Grattan 18 Oct 19, Government sources insist shock jock Alan Jones didn’t drive Thursday’s announcement of a cash payment to drought-stricken farmers about to be turfed off their household support because they’d reached the four-year time limit.They say the measure — giving up to $13,000 to a couple and $7,500 to individuals at a cost of $12.8 million this financial year — had been in Cabinet’s expenditure review committee process for some time.
But the National Farmers Federation says it wasn’t given any notice, which seems odd since Drought Minister David Littleproud is constantly referencing the NFF.
Regardless of the sequencing, Mr Jones’ extraordinarily angry and emotional performance on Tuesday, haranguing Mr Morrison on radio, breaking down on TV, and warning of dire political consequences if the Government didn’t do something, certainly concentrated the Prime Minister’s mind.
As one official puts it, Mr Morrison is “attuned to the zeitgeist”.
Described more prosaically, the PM is highly sensitive to public opinion, and he judges that in metropolitan areas as well as the regions, people want more action — and then more still — to help those brought to their knees.
Can drought policy deliver better outcomes?
When he became PM, Mr Morrison was immediately anxious to own the issue of the drought. He referred to it in his news conference the day he was elected leader, saying it was “the first thing I need to turn attention to”, and was quickly off to a drought-affected area.
Now he is feeling the full cost — political as well as financial — of that ownership, as he’s confronted with pressure on all sides.
NFF president Fiona Simson continues to say she doesn’t think the Government has a drought policy…….
A sign of weakness?
Also, the Government has no credible reason for keeping under wraps the report it commissioned from Stephen Day, who was its drought coordinator, which would provide some useful overview.
Thursday’s announcement of the cash payment was messy: Mr Morrison trumpeted it on radio at the same time as the Nationals unveiled it at a press conference.
The Coalition’s handling looks ad hoc and reactive……..
Also, the Government has no credible reason for keeping under wraps the report it commissioned from Stephen Day, who was its drought coordinator, which would provide some useful overview.
Thursday’s announcement of the cash payment was messy: Mr Morrison trumpeted it on radio at the same time as the Nationals unveiled it at a press conference……. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-18/drought-gives-scott-morrison-a-harsh-political-lesson/11614698
Australia’s climate crisis: destruction of forests
An epidemic of land clearing is sabotaging efforts to address climate change. Farming communities are bitterly divided over the issue – but it also has global consequences
Roger Fitzgerald’s family has been farming near Moree since 1925. But these days he feels under siege on his own farm. His 1,700-hectare property, 50km north of the town, is now surrounded by the operations of the sprawling agribusiness Beefwood Farms, which has been steadily buying up land in New South Wales to expand its operations.
The old easement to Fitzgerald’s cottage across the sprawling Beefwood property has been planted over with crops. His letterbox has mysteriously disappeared on several occasions, making it hard for visitors to spot the entrance to his farm. But it is the extent of land clearing by his neighbour, Beefwood’s owner, Gerardus Kurstjens, that has upset him the most.
Fitzgerald says the microclimate of the nearby Welbon plains has moved a kilometre further on to his property since losing a tree line on Kurstjens’ property that once sheltered his land.
Pockets of remaining vegetation have been ripped from the grey soil to expand cultivation and square up paddocks – and the first Fitzgerald knows of it is when the bulldozers arrive.
“There is something seriously not right about the extent of land clearing in my little part of the world,” he says.
Think of land clearing like a rezoning in the city. Land cleared for cropping west of Moree sells for $2,500 a hectare whereas grazing land will sell for between $700 and $1000 a hectare. East of Moree most of the prime land has already been converted to crops and sells for $6,800 a hectare, three times the value of grazing land.
Clearing vegetation has the potential to add millions to a property’s value, as well as yielding high returns in a good year.
That alone is enough for farmers to risk up to $1m in fines for illegally clearing, according to one former NSW Office of Environment and Heritage compliance officer, who asked not to be named.
But while land clearing might benefit individual farmers in the short term, the loss of native vegetation comes with enormous costs for the rest of us.
“Land clearance and degradation is one of the greatest crises facing Australia and the world,” says Bill Hare, the chief executive and senior scientist with Berlin-based Climate Analytics. “It undermines the basis for food production, is causing species loss and ecological decline, destroys climate resilience, degrades water resources and reverses carbon storage on the land.”
Pollution from land clearing is projected by the federal government to remain at about 46m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year to 2030, roughly equivalent to emissions from three large coal-fired power plants. The rate at which we are clearing land in Australia is almost immediately wiping out gains being made under tax-payer funded schemes to address climate change.
Australia is among the 11 worst countries when it comes to deforestation, according to the World Wildlife Fund.
Queensland, with its vast swathes of untouched land on Cape York, has the highest clearing rate, but NSW is rapidly becoming a hotspot – and there is less to lose, with only 9% of the state’s vegetation in its original state.
What is becoming clear is that successive NSW governments have failed to explain the science behind preserving native vegetation – both in relation to climate change and protecting the landscape and endangered species – to farmers and the public.
Instead, land clearing laws in the state have been successively weakened, first by Labor and then more comprehensively by the Coalition, with the introduction of amendments to the Local Land Services Act in August 2017.
“NSW’s native vegetation laws were [once] based on the principle that broad-scale land clearing would not be permitted and clearing could only proceed if it could be shown to maintain or improve environmental outcomes,” says Rachel Walmsley, a solicitor at the NSW Environmental Defenders Office.
“The new act brought in a new approach with the twin stated objectives of arresting the current decline in the state’s biodiversity while also facilitating sustainable agricultural development.”
But while farmers are mostly happy with the new rules, environmentalists say they have ushered in an environmental disaster because they allow farmers to self-assess whether clearing is permissible.
The old act also protected paddock trees; the amended act has made it much easier to get rid of them.
Critics say farmers have been given the green light to clear.
“I have sat in meetings where arguments have been put that driving a tractor around a tree is a significant cost in diesel for farmers,” Walmsley says.
“There’s no valuation of the ecosystem services these trees provide: clean water, clean air, healthy soils and hosting pollinators. There’s no dollar value put on vegetation.”………
The facts are unequivocal. NSW is losing vegetation at an alarming rate………………… https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/17/stripped-bare-australias-hidden-climate-crisis
Severe fire danger for northern New South Wales
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Plenty more bush to burn’: Severe fire danger for northern NSW, SMH. By Josh Dye, October 16, 2019 A total fire ban has been declared for six regions in the state’s north and north-east on Thursday as firefighters brace for “severe” fire conditions.The NSW Rural Fire Service is warning residents to be vigilant with “hot and windy” weather putting firefighters on high alert. There’s plenty more bush out there to burn,” an RFS spokesman said.
“Winds are likely to average 40km/h from the north to north-west with gusts up to 70km/h.” Temperatures are forecast to reach up to 35 degrees in parts of the state’s north on Thursday, including near Casino where two bushfires burnt out of control last week. Two people died, 64 homes were destroyed and more than 122,000 hectares were scorched in the fires. Firefighters are also worried about the possibility of extra fires being ignited from lightning strikes with possible storms on the radar……. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/plenty-more-bush-to-burn-severe-fire-danger-for-northern-nsw-20191016-p531bt.html |
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Northern Territory Aboriginals call out for climate action as mangroves dieback with heat
NT traditional owners urge climate change policy makers to witness mangrove devastation ABC News, By Jane Bardon 14 Oct 19, Traditional owners are devastated by the lack of recovery at the site of Australia’s worst recorded mangrove dieback and are calling for action to limit climate change threats.
Key points:
- Scientists have said the severity of the mangrove dieback is on a par with Great Barrier Reef bleaching
- The Top End is experiencing sea level rise at two to three times global averages
- The CSIRO is warning the world is not on track to halt sea level rise
Traditional owner Patsy Evans had hoped there would be signs of recovery at the site of the mangrove dieback, in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
But during a recent visit to the area for the first time since 2015, when she and her husband alerted the Northern Territory Government to the extent of the damage, she was devastated by the scene.
She said she wanted policy makers to see how climate change was affecting the land near her home on the Limmen River, 750 kilometres south of Darwin.
“Go out and see what’s happening, be aware and look at it, and don’t make decisions where you are,” she said.
The mangroves were once nurseries for the mud crab, barramundi and prawn fisheries, but now consist mainly of dead trees and dusty earth.
The few live seedlings coming through are exposed, and vulnerable to damage from the fallen dead trees……
On par with Great Barrier Reef bleaching
“We can’t see any other driver of the dieback other than the extreme climatic envelope has shifted,” Charles Darwin University professor Lindsay Hutley said.
Dr Hutley said the extent and duration of the dieback was on a par with the severity of Great Barrier Reef bleaching………
Polar icecap melting underestimated
The CSIRO has mapped the average sea level rise of the Top End at between six and 13 millimetres a year — two to three times the rate off southern Australia and the global average……… https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/climate-change-mangrove-traditional-owners-call-for-action/11598238
Weather experts predict more heat and fire risk coming, though fewer cyclones
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Australia could see fewer cyclones, but more heat and fire risk in coming months The Conversation, Jonathan Pollock, Climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew B. Watkins, Head of Long-range Forecasts, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Catherine Ganter Senior Climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Paul Gregoryn, BOM, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, October 14, 2019
Northern Australia is likely to see fewer cyclones than usual this season, but hot, dry weather will increase the risk of fire and heatwaves across eastern and southern Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology today released its forecast for the tropical cyclone season, which officially runs from November 1 to April 30.Also published today is the October to April Severe Weather Outlook, which examines the risk of other weather extremes like flooding, heatwaves and bushfires. Warmer oceans means more cyclones On average, 11 tropical cyclones form each season in the Australian region. Around four of those cross the coast. The total number each season is roughly related to how much cooler or warmer than average the tropical oceans near Australia are during the cyclone season……..
when ENSO is neutral, there is little push towards above or below average numbers of cyclones. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been ENSO-neutral since April and are likely to stay neutral until at least February 2020. However, some tropical patterns are El Niño-like, including higher-than-average air pressure at Darwin. This may be related to the current record-strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole – another of Australia’s major climate drivers – and the cooler waters surrounding northern Australia. The neutral ENSO phase alongside higher-than-average air pressure over northern Australia means we expect fewer-than-average tropical cyclones in the Australian region this season. The bureau’s Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook model predicts a 65% chance of fewer-than-average cyclones………. Other severe weatherWhile cyclones are one of the key concerns during the coming months, the summer months also bring the threat of several other forms of severe weather, including bushfires, heatwaves and flooding rain. With dry soils inland, and hence little moisture available to cool the air, and a forecast for clear skies and warmer days, there is an increased chance that heat will build up over central Australia during the spring and summer months. This increases the chance of heatwaves across eastern and southern Australia when that hot air is drawn towards the coast by passing weather systems.
Likewise, the dry landscape and the chance of extreme heat also raise the risk of more bushfires throughout similar parts of Australia, especially on windy days. And with fewer natural firebreaks such as full rivers and streams, even greater care is needed in some areas. Widespread floods are less likely this season……..https://theconversation.com/australia-could-see-fewer-cyclones-but-more-heat-and-fire-risk-in-coming-months-125139 |
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Climate change – heat -drought – more mass fish deaths to come
The communities preparing for more devastating mass fish deaths in rural NSW, In the first in a series of reports from communities along the Darling River, SBS News meets those who have been impacted by water mismanagement and drought., BY ANEETA BHOLE 14 Oct 19, Rural New South Wales communities are bracing for another ecological disaster, despite efforts to save local fish populations.
More than a million fish died in December 2018 and January this year along the Darling River at Menindee, which was once home to 60 different fish species.
Local fisherman Graeme McCrabb still recalls the stench that saturated the town following what has been called Australia’s largest fish kill on record……….
Disconnected river system
A lack of fresh flows down the river, combined with the drought, are exacerbating the disaster.
“There’s six kilometres of dry riverbed and think when you’re looking at that everyday it’s really confronting,” he said.
“It’s a stark reminder of just how dire the situation is.”…………
Loss of culture
Barkindji man Michael ‘Smacka’ Whyman, lives upstream in Wilcannia.
He said the state of the water system is devastating to his community, the Barkindji people, or ‘Darling River folk’.
“I’d like to see the government stop draining or rivers our national waterways we’re living in the longest river in Australia and they’ve killed,” he said.
“The environmental damage alone is bloody massive.”
In September, an independent review by the state’s Natural Resources Commission found that the Barwon-Darling river system is an ‘ecosystem in crisis’.
The review found: “The weight of scientific evidence is clear: while reduced inflows due to drought, upstream extraction, and climate change are all impacting the flows in the Barwon- Darling, the Plan provisions that allow increased access to low flows have resulted in poor ecological and social outcomes downstream of Bourke.”……….
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-communities-preparing-for-more-devastating-mass-fish-deaths-in-rural-nsw
The role of climate change in Australia’s early bushfire season
Climate change partly to blame for early bushfire 
season, New analysis confirms the relationship between climate drivers such as El Niño, climate change and the Australian bushfire season, Guardian, Chris Lucas and Sarah Harris for The Conversation, 11 Oct 19
Summer might be more than six weeks away but out-of-control bushfires have already torn across parts of eastern Australia in recent days, killing two people, destroying homes and threatening more lives.
By Wednesday afternoon up to 30 homes were feared lost or badly damaged by bushfires burning in northern New South Wales. About 40 fires burned across the state.
This did not surprise meteorologists and fire agencies. Record-breaking heat and windy conditions were forecast for parts of NSW and Queensland this week, prompting severe fire danger ratings.
We’re often told the Australian bushfire season is starting earlier. This year it began in September on the eastern seaboard. Last year and in 2013 significant spring fires hit NSW and in 2015 they affected much of the nation’s southeast.
But what lies behind this phenomenon? We examined seasonal fire weather history for 44 years at 39 weather stations to find the answer.
This analysis is the most comprehensive ever conducted in Australia. It confirms the strength of the relationship between climate drivers such as El Niño, climate change and the Australian bushfire season. It also demonstrates that a few milder bushfire seasons do not mean climate change isn’t happening.
Hot, dry, windy conditions spell fire trouble
The prerequisites for a severe bushfire season are high temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds that coincide with long periods of low rainfall.
These weather ingredients are used to calculate an area’s fire danger rating, using the forest fire danger index. The index produces a score reflecting the severity of fire weather on a given day, where zero represents minimal anger, 50 represents conditions where a fire ban may be issued, and 100 is potentially catastrophic………
Climate change is a culprit too
The changed conditions have led to an average increase in severe seasonal bushfire weather across Australia, especially in southern parts of the continent. The increased severity affects all seasons but in particular spring, which means that, on average, the bushfire season is starting earlier.
Pulling it all together
Our research has made clear that climate modes bring large and rapid swings to the fire weather, while human-induced climate change gradually increases background fire weather conditions. The trend generally means an earlier start to the bushfire seasons than in the past.
Similarly, a few milder bushfire seasons among a string of record high seasons do not mean that climate change should be dismissed.
- Chris Lucas is a senior research scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Sarah Harris is manager research and development at the Country Fire Authority.https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/11/climate-change-partly-to-blame-for-early-bushfire-season
Climate protest in Perth: arrests in Sydney, Brisbane – Melbourne?
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Dozens arrested on east coast as Extinction Rebellion protests begin https://thewest.com.au/news/environment/dozens-arrested-on-east-coast-as-extinction-rebellion-protests-begin-ng-b881345425z
Geoff Parry, 7NEWS ,Monday, 7 October 2019 Dozens of people have been arrested at climate change rallies on the east coast of Australia.
Protests organised by the group Extinction Rebellion have been held in most capital cities, including Perth. About 100 “climate protectors” started at Elizabeth Quay and walked through the city, eventually finishing at Yagan Square. As promised by the organisers disruption was kept to a minimum and no arrests. In Sydney about 30 people were arrested by police, including some elderly demonstrators and school-age children. Hundreds of them blocked a major street near Central Station forcing police to remove some of them. Several handcuffed themselves to a water tank to frustrate police. In Brisbane several people were detained by police as several hundred marked through the centre of the city. They stopped at a number of intersections along the way deliberately blocking traffic for long periods. In Melbourne a big climate change rally is getting underway this afternoon with organisers predicting there will be arrests. Here in Perth they described today’s rally as an introduction to a week or protests and promised this is just the beginning.We feel the disruption is justified, warranted and actually long overdue,” Extinction Rebellion spokeswoman Jesse Noakes said. “Unfortunately there is major major disruption coming whether we like it or not.” They say their big protest day will be Friday. |
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