Australian nuclear news – and more
Above – size of the highly radioactive capsule inexplicably mislaid, in Western Australia
Some bits of good news. What went right this week: ‘positive tipping points’. England got a new rewilding site. Cancer Plummets, Guinea Worm Eradicated, Bye-Bye Ebola—3 Huge Wins for Humanity.
The polycrisis is upon us……. pandemic, global heating, nuclear fear, plastic and chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, overpopulation, water shortage ….. all these are interrelated. As Alex Smith shows us, in Radio Ecoshock – this all might develop into a permacrisis. My own thought is that it’s no wonder that many young people have problems of anxiety and depression – in our culture focussed on individualism, money, and endless growth.
Nuclear. This newsletter is miles too long. But it’s a critical time- teetering on the brink of nuclear war. Tanks going into Ukraine – a futile symbol for Zelensky’s dream of conquering Russia, – while underneath it all, rumblings of a cease-fire deal between USA-NATO and Russia, before it all gets a lot worse.
Christina notes: World War 3 danger – it’s getting so like pre World War 1 – can it get any worse? Nuclear toys for the boys. What fun! Nuclear fusion – here’s where history, culture, and nuclear annihilation technology collide.
AUSTRALIA.
- Urgent public health warning issued over lost radioactive capsule in Western Australia. [nb. Kramatorsk radiological accident]. Missing radioactive capsule: WA officials admit it was weeks before anyone realised it was lost.
- Kimba District Council, keen to host nuclear waste dump, but now plans marketing push to get a “brand” different from the nuclear one. Greens Senator Barbara Pocock ‘s reminder that the Kimba nuclear waste storage has no longterm plan for removal of that waste to permanent disposal. Media keeps mum about earthquake near planned nuclear waste dump. Nothing in writing. No guarantees – the planned Kimba waste dump could get highly radioactive nuclear wastes from submarines.
- Nuclear submarines deal an exercise in futility and should be sunk. Nuclear submarines are not going to have ‘any effect’ at all. Australia to become major hub for US submarines, [and target?] Push in US Congress to exempt Australia from International Traffic in Arms Regulations, so that it can import nuclear submarines.
- The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is a good step towards a nuclear-free world.
- Bill Gates in Australia – mainly to soft sell his small nuclear reactor business.
Documents show no sign Albanese government lobbied the US to bring Julian Assange home.
CLIMATE. The first breach of 1.5°C will be a temporary but devastating failure. Absurd that we listen to those causing the climate crisis’ in Davos, says Greta Thunberg. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU6vQXif5Xo The ‘all-of-the-above’ story used to sneak nuclear power in as a climate-action technology along with renewables . Suffolk: Sizewell C nuclear ‘should not get licence’ due to coastal erosion.
CIVIL LIBERTIES. Julian Assange and the US government’s war on whistleblowers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOC-c0QdfEo . The Belmarsh Tribunals Demand Justice for Julian Assange. UK police powers increased, to shut down climate protests. UK govt to tighten anti-protest restrictions, despite criticism from human rights groups .
CULTURE. The dirty secret of US nuclear energy.
ECONOMICS. As the war rages on and military spending booms, the US arms industry is a big winner in Ukraine.
Marketing: South Korea keen to market nuclear technology to United Arab Emirates, and missile technology, too. Poland’s energy company agrees to buy France’s NOT YET DESIGNED so-called “small” Nuward nuclear reactor!
The British government’s Regulated Asset Base – the test case for reviving its nuclear power dream. “Great British Nuclear “- it’s high time that they came clean on what this will cost.
As SMR developer X-energy moves to go public, merger partner Ares cautions investors about risks of small nuclear reactors. David Schlissel: Small modular reactor project likely to end badly for Utah utilities.
EMPLOYMENT. The French nuclear sector up against the wall in terms of recruitment.
ENERGY. Germany aims for faster expansion of wind energy, not nuclear. Prolonged outages of France’s nuclear reactors. Renewable energy is the only credible path forward -António Guterres. Four separate reports show that the UK could save over €120 bn by 2050 by switching to a renewable energy strategy.
ENVIRONMENT. Campaigners fear changes at Hinkley Point C ‘could kill millions of fish every day’. Japan’s Plan To Discharge Water From Fukushima Nuclear Plant Faces Pacific Opposition
HEALTH. Julian Assange’s Biggest Fight in Notorious Prison Isn’t Over Extradition. The WHO is urging countries to start stockpiling medicines for ‘nuclear emergencies’ after the EU’s latest warning on Ukraine war. WHO updates critical medicines list for radiological and nuclear emergencies. Investigation underway after nine nuclear missileers develop non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Nuclear strike chief seeks cancer review of launch officers.
LEGAL. Fukushima: court upholds acquittals of three Tepco executives over disaster. UK High Court to hear challenge against plans for Sizewell C nuclear station. The Ohio nuclear scandal: Davis-Besse and Perry power plants in northern Ohio couldn’t cover costs, let alone make a profit. Appeals Court Tosses Suit from Environmentalists, Midland Oil Company Contesting Nuclear Waste Storage Permit.
MEDIA. New documentary film ‘Downwind’ explores why testing, using nuclear weapons makes deadly mistakes .
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY. Nuclear Fusion Won’t Save the Climate But It Might Blow Up the World. The Nuclear Fallacy: Why Small Modular Reactors Can’t Compete With Renewable Energy. U.S. approves design for NuScale small modular nuclear reactor, but significant problems remain.
OPPOSITION to NUCLEAR. Demonstrators gather in Hamburg against threat of nuclear confrontation in Ukraine.
PERSONAL STORIES. ‘The day the desert wind cried‘: French nuclear tests cast long shadow in Libyan Sahara.
POLITICS.
- Donald Trump warns of NUCLEAR WAR as Joe Biden sends 31 tanks to Ukraine.
- Ukraine steps up preparations for new nuclear reactors (NO this is not a joke!).
- Military offensives increase nuclear accident odds in Ukraine, warns atomic safety chief.
- Mini nuclear reactor firm snubs Britain for the French: Newcleo blames political chaos for decision to build prototype across Channel. Jeremy in nuclear wonderland. Rolls Royce demands that the UK government decides on tax-payer funding for their small nuclear reactors. 2022 saw the slow demise of the Bradwell B nuclear plan.
- France’s new law on nuclear energy will be a gift to the nuclear lobby. French government moves to fully nationalise the nuclear industry.
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission certifies NuScale’s design for small nuclear reactor, despite predictions on uneconomic costs.
- Canada: Federal gifts for the nuclear and mining industries.
- King Charles wants to honour nuclear test heroes but medals are being delayed by MoD red tape.
POLITICS INTERNATIONAL and DIPLOMACY. The Problem With Primacy – America’s Dangerous Quest to Dominate the Pacific. “Chinese Aggression” Sure Looks An Awful Lot Like US Aggression. Can Talks with China about Nuclear Weapons Be Constructive?
USA tries to prevent a Russian offensive in Ukraine by offering a sort of war endgame deal to Russia. Diplomatic Cables Show Russia Saw NATO Expansion as a Red Line. WikiLeaks cables reveal NATO intended to cross all Russian red lines.
Pacific islands urge Japan to delay release of nuclear plant waste water. France promises to speed up handover of colonial archives and clean up nuclear test sites in Algeria.
SAFETY.
- UK’s ‘Protect and Survive’ nuclear attack advice deemed ‘futile’ in face of modern threats.
- Nuclear power in Ukraine: what would happen if Zaporizhzhia was hit? A reckless response – Ukraine orders more nuclear reactors! Clear and present danger- Ukraine’s reactors remain at risk. The IAEA expands mission in Ukraine to prevent nuclear accident. IAEA sends staff to all Ukraine nuclear plants to reduce risk of accidents. Ukraine says situation deteriorating at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Accident at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant ‘still cannot be excluded’: IAEA . Ukraine storing weapons at nuclear plants.
- Former DEA Nuclear Security Official Says Wyoming Natrium Reactor Not Safe.
- Cracking Under Pressure: Inside the Race to Fix France’s Nuclear Plants. French nuclear safety needs review ahead of reactor lifespan extensions, newbuilds.
- 40 safety incidents with UK nuclear weapons convoys over past 3 years. Call to end practice of transporting nuclear warheads through Cumbria.
- Slovenia Extends Nuclear Plant Operation Until 2043. Slovenia’s nuclear power plant gets permit for a 20 year operating extension.
SECRETS and LIES. In Just Under Three Weeks, Ukrainian-Fired Prohibited “Petal” Mines Maim At Least 44 Civilians, Kill 2, in Donetsk Region. Man arrested on suspicion of terror offences after uranium found at Heathrow.
SPACE. EXPLORATION, WEAPONS. Geopolitics’ New Frontier in Space. NATO activating space war center in France. New NASA Nuclear Rocket Plan Aims to Get to Mars in Just 45 Days. Nuclear-powered rockets to Mars – there are serious safety risks. NASA partners with the military to test nuclear fission-powered spacecraft engine by 2027.
SPINBUSTER. A bit of panic in the UK small nuclear reactor lobby?
TECHNOLOGY. Canadian MP Charlie Angus Questions the Claims of SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7nR4P39ALo.
WASTES. Don’t dump on us. China urges Japan to safely dispose of nuclear-contaminated water. France’s nuclear waste agency applies to create a long-term underground storage in Eastern France. France issues a 10,000-page dossier to convince people of the safety of the Cigeo nuclear waste site. US sweetens pot to study siting for spent nuclear fuel. Diluted plutonium disposed of at Carlsbad nuclear waste site as program draws controversy. Many years for removal and disposal of radioactive waste from historic subterranean vaults at Berkeley nuclear power station.
WAR and CONFLICT.
- WAR and CONFLICT. A clear signal to the US leadership that there will be no survivors in any nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Doomsday Clock reset to 90 seconds to midnight. Doomsday Clock set to 90 seconds to midnight, here’s the plan – ICAN. How Would a Nuclear Winter Play Out?
- US may assist Ukrainian strikes on Crimea – NYT. Ukraine: Is the Hammer About to Fall?. Truth About Tanks: How NATO Lied Its Way to Disaster in Ukraine. NATO’s ‘war against Russia‘ inches ‘closer to direct conflict’. Putin ready for war with NATO and U.S.? Russia plans renewed offensive in Feb over tanks aid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbIwrFgP-VQ Zelenskyy demands more sanctions, as Ukraine reels from Russian bombardment.
- Former US Secretary of State says Pakistan’s 2019 conflict with India almost sparked nuclear war. Israel appears to have been behind drone strike on Iran factory, U.S. official says.
WEAPONS and WEAPONS SALES. SCOTT RITTER: The Nightmare of NATO Equipment Being Sent to Ukraine. CNN: Ukraine Has Become a ‘Weapons Lab’ for Western Arms . Ukraine Narrative Fraying, But Weapons Will Continue To Flow. AP: NATO powers, Ukraine in “fast-track” talks for long-range missiles, warplanes . Ukraine war boon/boondoggle for U.S. arms makers, Pentagon’s warfighting capabilities.
Biden to send 31 Abrams tanks, Germany 14 Leopards for war in Ukraine — . Germany Says US Must Lead Way On Tanks For Ukraine, As Republican Party Also Piles On Pressure . Ukraine: Germany spearheads delivery of 90 tanks from NATO allies, partners . Finnish arms to Turkey in NATO quid pro quo, tanks to Ukraine next. Ukraine intensifies pressure on Georgia to enter war: ruling party leader . German foreign minister: “We are fighting a war against Russia” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCJUf5d6UfE
Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2023. Pentagon can’t account for $220 billion in govt property, fails fifth audit. It comes down to weapons.
Plutonium Pit Bomb Plans Excoriated by General Accounting Office.
Cost Estimate for Plutonium Pit Project at Savannah River Site Hits $16.5 Billion, $5 Billion above Current Estimate .
US Installs New Nukes in Europe: As Destructive as 83 Hiroshima Bombs.
The US has a new nuclear proliferation problem: South Korea. The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons.
Julian Assange’s Biggest Fight in Notorious Prison Isn’t Over Extradition
NewsWeek, BY SHAUN WATERMAN ON 01/27/23 “…………………………………………….. Assange’s physical and mental health have declined severely during more than a decade in confinement — first sheltering from U.S. authorities in the Ecuadorian embassy in London from 2012-2019, where he lived in two rooms and never left the building, and for the last almost four years, since he was dragged from the embassy by British police in April 2019, in Belmarsh fighting extradition.
…………………… The proceedings in London continue to drag on. It has been more than a year since the High Court cleared the way for his extradition and his appeal was filed in August. But the court continues to weigh it, with no deadline to reach a decision. Even if he loses, there remains the possibility of an appeal to the British Supreme Court, or to the European Court of Human Rights. Assange could be in the U.S. within months, but he might remain in Britain for years.
His family says that with uncertainty about his extradition hanging over him like the sword of Damocles, he has lost weight and become depressed and anxious.
A confinement of uncertain duration
The worst part about the confinement is having no idea when or how he would be able to leave, Stella Assange said. “It is the uncertain duration that makes it so hard to bear … It’s a kind of torture.”…………..
The uncertainty has exacerbated Assange’s physical and mental deterioration, his wife said. In October 2021, during a High Court hearing about his extradition, Assange, attending via video link from Belmarsh, suffered a “transient ischaemic attack” — a mini-stroke. He has been diagnosed with nerve damage and memory problems and prescribed blood thinners.
“He might not survive this,” she said.
As a remand prisoner, not convicted or sentenced, and facing extradition, not prosecution, Assange is an anomaly in Britain’s most secure prison — designed to hold “Category A” inmates such as IRA militants, jihadis and murderers. One of a tiny handful of unconvicted prisoners, prison regulations require him to be treated differently, his wife said.
“He’s supposed to be able to get visits every day, he’s supposed to be able to work on his case,” she said, “But that’s only on paper. The way the prison system works, it is more efficient to treat everyone like a Cat A prisoner rather than to try to adapt the rules for individuals. In reality, that just doesn’t translate at all.” She said Assange is allowed one or two legal visits, and one or two social visits each week.
In between visits, time can stretch. And the isolation has been hard on him……………………………..
Phone calls, his half-brother Gabriel Shipton told Newsweek from Assange’s native Australia, are limited to 10 minutes. “You’ll just be getting into it and click, it’s over.”
Neither the governor’s office at Belmarsh, nor the press office for the British Prison Service, responded to emails requesting responses to detailed questions.
A source of inspiration and power
Assange gets thousands of letters and parcels from all over the world, Stella Assange said, but the authorities interdict banned items, such as books about national security, paintings and other forbidden objects.
His father, John Shipton, told Newsweek from Australia that Assange draws a lot of inspiration and power from the letters that people write to him. During their phone conversations, he will often read snippets or recall memorable letters, Shipton said. “He loves getting them … You can hear him light up a bit” when he talks about them………………………………………… more https://www.newsweek.com/2023/02/10/julian-assanges-biggest-fight-notorious-prison-isnt-over-extradition-1774197.html
The Belmarsh Tribunals Demand Justice for Julian Assange
Never before has a publisher been charged under the U.S. Espionage Act. The Assange prosecution poses a fundamental threat to the freedom of speech and a free press.
President Biden, currently embroiled in his own classified document scandal, knows this, and should immediately drop the charges against Julian Assange
JANUARY 26, 2023, By Amy Goodman & Denis Moynihan https://www.democracynow.org/2023/1/26/the_belmarsh_tribunals_demand_justice_for
“The first casualty when war comes is truth,” U.S. Senator Hiram W. Johnson of California said in 1929, debating ratification of the Kellogg-Briand Pact, a noble but ultimately failed attempt to ban war. Reflecting on World War I, which ended a decade earlier, he continued, “it begins what we were so familiar with only a brief period ago, this mode of propaganda whereby…people become war hungry in their patriotism and are lied into a desire to fight. We have seen it in the past; it will happen again in the future.”
Time and again, Hiram Johnson has been proven right. Our government’s impulse to control information and manipulate public opinion to support war is deeply ingrained. The past twenty years, dominated by the so-called War on Terror, are no exception. Sophisticated PR campaigns, a compliant mass media and the Pentagon’s pervasive propaganda machine all work together, as public intellectual Noam Chomsky and the late Prof. Ed Herman defined it in the title of their groundbreaking book, “Manufacturing Consent,” borrowing a phrase from Walter Lippman, considered the father of public relations.
One publisher consistently challenging the pro-war narrative pushed by the U.S. government, under both Republican and Democratic presidents, has been the whistleblower website Wikileaks. Wikileaks gained international attention in 2010 after publishing a trove of classified documents leaked from the U.S. military. Included were numerous accounts of war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, the killing of civilians, and shocking footage of a helicopter gunship in Baghdad slaughtering a dozen civilians, including a Reuters journalist and his driver, on the ground below. Wikileaks titled that video, “Collateral Murder.”
The New York Times and other newspapers partnered with Wikileaks to publish stories based on the leaks. This brought increased attention to the founder and editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, Julian Assange. In December, 2010, two months after release of the Collateral Murder video, then-Vice President Joe Biden, appearing on NBC, said Assange was “closer to being a hi-tech terrorist than the Pentagon papers.” Biden was referring to the 1971 classified document release by Daniel Ellsberg, which revealed years of Pentagon lies about U.S. involvement in the war in Vietnam.
With a secret grand jury empanelled in Virginia, Assange, then in London, feared being arrested and extradited to the United States. Ecuador granted Assange political asylum. Unable to make it to Latin America, he sought refuge in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. He lived inside the small, apartment-sized embassy for almost seven years. In April 2019, after a new Ecuadorian president revoked Assange’s asylum, British authorities arrested him and locked him up in London’s notorious Belmarsh Prison, often called “Britain’s Guantánamo.” He has been held there, in harsh conditions and in failing health, for almost four years, as the U.S. government seeks his extradition to face espionage and other charges. If extradited and convicted in the U.S., Assange faces 175 years in a maximum-security prison.
While the Conservative-led UK government seems poised to extradite Assange, a global movement has grown demanding his release. The Progressive International, a global pro-democracy umbrella group, has convened four assemblies since 2020 called The Belmarsh Tribunals. Named after the 1966 Russell-Sartre Tribunal on the Vietnam War, convened by philosophers Bertrand Russell and Jean-Paul Sarte, The Belmarsh Tribunal has assembled some of the world’s most prominent, progressive activists, artists, politicians, dissidents, human rights attorneys and whistleblowers, all speaking in defense of Julian Assange and Wikileaks.
We are bearing witness to a travesty of justice,” Jeremy Corbyn, a British Member of Parliament and a former leader of the Labour Party, said at the tribunal. “To an abuse of human rights, to a denial of freedom of somebody who bravely put himself on the line that we all might know that the innocent died in Abu Ghraib, the innocent died in Afghanistan, the innocent are dying in the Mediterranean, and innocents die all over the world, where unwatched, unaccountable powers decide it’s expedient and convenient to kill people who get in the way of whatever grand scheme they’ve got. We say no. That’s why we are demanding justice for Julian Assange.”
Corbyn is joined in his call by The New York Times, the Guardian, Le Monde, El Pais and Der Spiegel–major newspapers that published articles based on the leaked documents. “Publishing is not a crime,” the newspapers declared.
Never before has a publisher been charged under the U.S. Espionage Act. The Assange prosecution poses a fundamental threat to the freedom of speech and a free press. President Biden, currently embroiled in his own classified document scandal, knows this, and should immediately drop the charges against Julian Assange.
Missing radioactive capsule: WA officials admit it was weeks before anyone realised it was lost
Fire and Emergency Services official says capsule left Rio Tinto mine site on 10 January but was not found missing for 15 days
Guardian, Mostafa Rachwani, 28 Jan 23
Western Australian authorities are scrambling to find a missing radioactive capsule that is a fraction of the size of a 10c coin, conceding it was not found missing until more than two weeks after it left a Rio Tinto mine site.
The 8mm by 6mm capsule is a 19-gigabecquerel caesium 137 ceramic source, commonly used in radiation gauges, and was supposed to be contained in a secure device which had been “damaged” on a truck which travelled from the mine site north of Newman in the Pilbara to a depot in Perth.
Authorities are now searching along the 1,400km stretch of the Great Northern Highway for the capsule, which they warn can cause skin burns, radiation sickness and cancer.
At a news conference on Saturday, Darryl Ray, the acting superintendent for Western Australia’s Department of Fire and Emergency Services, said authorities were largely searching for the capsule at “strategic sites”.
He said an incident management team including the Department of Health and police had been formed.
“We have continued the search on strategic sites along the route that the vehicle had taken, concentrating on sites close to high-population areas within the metropolitan suburbs,” he said. “The search involves the use of radiation survey meters to detect the radiation levels which will help us locate the small device.
“What we are not doing is trying to find a tiny little device by eyesight. We are using the radiation detectors to locate the gamma rays, using the meters, that will help us then locate the small device.
“We have secured the GPS data from the trucking company to determine the exact route and stops that the vehicle has taken on its journey.
“We will continue to use specialist equipment to help us search the remaining known locations … in particular, the Great Northern Highway between Perth and Newman.”
The WA chief health officer, Andrew Robertson, said there were screws missing from the protective gauge holding the capsule when it was discovered missing.
“These gauges are designed to be robust and to be used in industrial settings where they may be exposed to weather and vibration, so it is unusual for a gauge to come apart like this one has,” Robertson said.
“We are conducting an investigation on all of the circumstances from when it was originally transported from the mine site, the whole of the transport route, and then its handling on arrival in Perth.”
Robertson urged anyone who found the capsule not to handle it.
“People could end up developing redness of the skin and eventually burns of the skin from the beta radiation,” he said. “If it were kept long enough and they were exposed long enough, they could also have some acute effects, including impacts on their immune system and the gastrointestinal system.”
Robertson said the capsule was “most dangerous if it is handled or if it is close to the body”.
“If you are further than five metres away from the source, certainly if you are more than 20 metres away from the source, it will pose no danger to you,” he said. “If it is closer than that, and we strongly discourage people from picking it up, certainly don’t put it in your pocket or put it in your car, don’t put it on your sideboard, it will continue to radiate.
“While you may not have immediate health effects, they can occur relatively rapidly over a short period of time if it is close to the body………………
Robertson said officials did not know the date the capsule fell off the truck.
Ray said the capsule was placed on to the pallet on 10 January at the mine site, transited and arrived at the radiation service company in Malaga on 16 January.
“It was not until the 25th, late morning, when they opened it up to reveal that the device had fallen apart, was damaged in transit, and that the actual capsule was discovered missing, which is when authorities were first notified.” ………… more https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/28/missing-radioactive-capsule-wa-officials-admit-it-was-weeks-before-anyone-realised-it-was-lost
Truth About Tanks: How NATO Lied Its Way to Disaster in Ukraine
Above: Ukrainian soldiers repair a tank January 2023
Sputnik International, Scott Ritter 29 Jan 23
Tank warfare has evolved. The large force-on-force armored battles that were the hallmark of much of WWII, the Arab-Israeli conflicts, which served as the foundation of operational doctrine for both NATO and the Soviet Union (and which was implemented in full by the United States during Operation Desert Storm in 1991), has run its course.
Like most military technological innovations, the ability to make a modern main battle tank survivable has been outstripped by the fielding of defensive systems designed to overcome such defenses. If a modern military force attempted to launch a large-scale tank-dominated attack against a well-equipped peer-level opponent armed with modern anti-tank missiles, the result would be a decisive defeat for the attacking party marked by the smoking hulks of burned-out tanks.
Don’t get me wrong: tanks still have a vital role to play on the modern battlefield. Their status as a mobile bunker is invaluable in the kind of meat-grinder conflicts of attrition that have come to define the current stage of large-scale ground combat. Speed and armor still contribute to survivability, and the main gun of a tank remains one of the deadliest weapons on the modern battlefield.
But the modern tank performs best as part of a combined arms team, supported by infantry (mounted and unmounted) and copious amounts of supporting arms (artillery and close air support.) As part of such a team, especially one that is well-trained in the art of close combat, the tank remains an essential weapon of war. However, if operated in isolation, a tank is simply an expensive mobile coffin.
Much has been made about the recent decision made by NATO and allied nations to provide Western main battle tanks to Ukraine. The politics of this decision is its own separate topic. This article will address the operational practicalities of this decision, namely has the military capability of Ukraine been enhanced through the provision of these new weapons systems.
To answer this question, one needs to examine three basic issues: training, logistical sustainability, and operational employment.
Training
It takes 22 weeks to train a basic American M1 Abrams crewmember. That training just gives the soldier the very basic skill set to be functional. Actual operational expertise is only achieved through months, if not years, of additional training in not just the system itself, but employing it as part of a similarly trained combine arms team………………………………….
Training is expensive. NATO is currently providing Ukraine with three types of Western main battle tank: the British Challenger 2, the German Leopard 2, and the American M1A2. There is no unified training course—each tank requires its own unique training prospectus that is not directly transferable to another system.
The decentralized training processes created by such a diverse approach promotes inefficiencies and generates discrepancies in outcome…………………….
Moreover, these problems will only be enhanced by the emphasis that will be placed on rapid outcomes. The reality is whatever training programs that are developed and delivered by the nations providing the tanks will be insufficient to the task, resulting in poorly trained crews taking extremely complicated weapons systems into the most dangerous environment in the world for a tank—the teeth of a Russian Army designed and equipped to kill these very same tanks.
Logistical Sustainability
Tanks are among the most technically challenging weapons systems on a modern battlefield. They are constantly breaking down, especially if not properly maintained……………………
This means that the tanks that are being provided to Ukraine will need to be returned to NATO nations for any significant repairs of equipment that is damaged through simple usage or actual combat. ……………….
Operational Employment
Ukraine’s commander in chief of the Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told The Economist last month that he needed 300 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 artillery pieces, if he were going to have any chance of defeating Ukraine.
Following the January 20 meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group, and subsequent follow-on discussions about the provision of tanks, NATO and its allied partners have agreed to provide less than 50% of the number of tanks requested, less than 50% of the number of infantry fighting vehicles requested, and less than 20% of the artillery requested.
Moreover, the timetable for delivery of this equipment is staggered incoherently over a period that stretches out for many months, and in some cases extends into the next year. …………..
The truth about tanks is that NATO and its allied nations are making Ukraine weaker, not stronger, by providing them with military systems that are overly complicated to operate, extraordinarily difficult to maintain, and impossible to survive unless employed in a cogent manner while supported by extensive combined arms partners.
The decision to provide Ukraine with Western main battle tanks is, literally, a suicide pact, something those who claim they are looking out for the best interests of Ukraine should consider before it is too late. https://sputniknews.com/20230128/truth-about-tanks-how-nato-lied-its-way-to-disaster-in-ukraine-1106786081.html
Clear and present danger- Ukraine’s reactors remain at risk
Grossi and others insist that the nuclear plants themselves are not the problem. “It’s very simple, the problem in Ukraine and in Russia is they are at war. The problem is not nuclear energy,” he told the BBC in an interview.
Except that it IS the nuclear plants that are the problem. After all, if Ukraine was powered by renewables and not nuclear plants, this wouldn’t even be an issue.
Bombardments in Ukraine keep reactors in the crosshairs
Ukraine’s reactors remain at risk as one-year anniversary of war looms
Clear and present danger, Beyond Nuclear, By Linda Pentz Gunter 29 Jan 23
A year ago, even before Russia invaded Ukraine, we ran our first article about the very real dangers of commercial nuclear power plants being caught up in a war.
A year later, we can thank only luck that what we predicted could happen, hasn’t. And the pinnacle — or, more accurately, nadir — of that “could” would be a catastrophic attack resulting in a major radioactive release.
Since the war began, the 15 Ukraine reactors situated at four sites, along with the defunct Chornobyl nuclear plant, have been at the center of media attention, once again bringing to light the inherent and extreme dangers of nuclear power plants at any time, let alone during an armed conflict. And, on a few occasions, all of those sites have also been in the crosshairs of actual fighting, most notably the six-reactor Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest both in Ukraine and all of Europe.
Despite pleadings by the International Atomic Energy Agency and its director, Rafael Grossi, not to engage in combat close to the nuclear plants, no effective deterrent or peaceful protective measure has been found or implemented, even as the IAEA continues to urge the creation of safe zones around the nuclear sites.
Grossi and others insist that the nuclear plants themselves are not the problem. “It’s very simple, the problem in Ukraine and in Russia is they are at war. The problem is not nuclear energy,” he told the BBC in an interview.
Except that it IS the nuclear plants that are the problem. After all, if Ukraine was powered by renewables and not nuclear plants, this wouldn’t even be an issue. As an Austrian government briefing paper, collected under “Fairy tales by the nuclear lobby,” said: “A ‘successful’ attack on a nuclear power plant in densely populated Europe would have radiological and economic consequences far beyond those experienced after Chernobyl or Fukushima. So far, no terrorist attacks on wind turbines or solar panels have been reported.”
An attack or other precipitating events caused by the war in Ukraine, could still result in such a disaster. Sadly, with the war raging on, nothing has really changed since the February 24, 2022 invasion.
Since it’s the most dangerous, being the largest, and also the closest to the worst of the fighting, let’s take Zaporizhzhia as our test case.
There are approximately 200 different radioactive isotopes contained in any given nuclear reactor and its waste inventories. Zaporizhzhia houses at least 2,204 tons of highly radioactive waste within the reactors and the irradiated fuel pools, according to a March 2022 Greenpeace analysis, looking at 2017 figures, the latest data available. At least 855 tons of those wastes are in the pools. The quantities are so high because the reactors have been in operation for several decades. The first unit came on line in 1985, the sixth in 1996.
Among those 200 isotopes are iodine-131, which attacks the thyroid, cesium-134 that accumulates in muscle and strontium-90 which acts like calcium in the body and is easily incorporated into bone. Since all reactors also make plutonium-239 — with a half-life of 24,000 years — as part of the fission process, it, too, could be propelled into the environment. As an alpha-emitting particle, it is most dangerous when inhaled, attacking lungs, kidneys and other organs.
As we have written frequently at Beyond Nuclear since our first article appeared and the Russian war on Ukraine followed, there are a number of scenarios that could precipitate such a catastrophe. It could involve a full or partial reactor meltdown, an irradiated fuel pool fire or hydrogen explosion, or a breach of the radioactive waste storage casks.
The specific scenarios for this are described with essential detail and great clarity in the special section on “Nuclear Power and War” in the 2022 edition of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report.
“Unlike all other types of power plants, the safety of a nuclear power plant depends on continuously functioning cooling systems,” the WNISR authors write in the chapter introduction. “The physical reason for this is the radioactive decay of the fission products and transuranic elements produced by neutron capture on uranium. During this decay, considerable amounts of heat are generated, so-called decay heat. If it is not continuously removed by cooling, this leads to strong heat buildup, which can cause melting, fires, or other events that can cause major releases of radioactive materials. During operation and directly after a reactor shutdown, cooling requirements are particularly high.”
This also means that even when the reactors are shut down, as at least four have been at Zaporizhzhia, they are not out of danger. And the fuel pools present the greatest threat, as the radioactive waste inventory they contain is more radioactive than the fresh fuel before it is loaded into the reactor.
But it need not take a full blown attack to cause at least some of these disastrous outcomes. It could be as simple as a loss of power, or human error. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
As we ponder this in the context of the perils of war, we must also remember that war just makes this outcome [a Chornobyl type disaster] more likely. A major nuclear disaster is still possible — and even probable — on a daily basis at any nuclear power plant anywhere and at any time. Loss of power and human error remain key causes, along with violent weather events — occurrences that will continue to become more frequent and more severe as the climate crisis worsens. Sabotage and terrorism are an ever-present possibility as well.
This means that striving for the unrealistic goal, as the IAEA does, of ensuring nuclear reactors are not caught up in a war zone, doesn’t make us all that much safer. Only the complete elimination of nuclear power as an energy source will achieve that.
Linda Pentz Gunter is the international specialist at Beyond Nuclear and writes for and curates Beyond Nuclear International. https://beyondnuclearinternational.org/2023/01/29/clear-and-present-danger/
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