Antinuclear

Australian news, and some related international items

New climate report – prediction of the collapse of civilisation

New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ in 2050 https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050  3 June 19

The climate change analysis was written by a former fossil fuel executive and backed by the former chief of Australia’s military. A harrowing scenario analysis of how human civilization might collapse in coming decades due to climate change has been endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

The analysis, published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank in Melbourne, Australia, describes climate change as “a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization” and sets out a plausible scenario of where business-as-usual could lead over the next 30 years.

The paper argues that the potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are often far more probable than conventionally assumed, but almost impossible to quantify because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”

On our current trajectory, the report warns, “planetary and human systems [are] reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”

The only way to avoid the risks of this scenario is what the report describes as “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization”—but this time focused on rapidly building out a zero-emissions industrial system to set in train the restoration of a safe climate.

The scenario warns that our current trajectory will likely lock in at least 3 degrees Celsius (C) of global heating, which in turn could trigger further amplifying feedbacks unleashing further warming. This would drive the accelerating collapse of key ecosystems “including coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and in the Arctic.”

The results would be devastating. Some one billion people would be forced to attempt to relocate from unlivable conditions, and two billion would face scarcity of water supplies. Agriculture would collapse in the sub-tropics, and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide. The internal cohesion of nation-states like the US and China would unravel.

Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,” the report notes.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association.

In the briefing’s foreword, retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—commends the paper for laying “bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

Barrie now works for the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, Canberra.

Spratt told Motherboard that a key reason the risks are not understood is that “much knowledge produced for policymakers is too conservative. Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk assessment is required using scenario analysis.”

Last October, Motherboard reported on scientific evidence that the UN’s summary report for government policymakers on climate change—whose findings were widely recognized as “devastating”—were in fact too optimistic.

While the Breakthrough scenario sets out some of the more ‘high end’ risk possibilities, it is often not possible to meaningfully quantify their probabilities. As a result, the authors emphasize that conventional risk approaches tend to downplay worst-case scenarios despite their plausibility.

Spratt and Dunlop’s 2050 scenario illustrates how easy it could be to end up in an accelerating runaway climate scenario which would lead to a largely uninhabitable planet within just a few decades.

“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said Spratt. “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilization of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”

June 4, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming | Leave a comment

Clive Palmer’s plan for new coal-fired power station in Galilee Basin

June 3, 2019 Posted by | climate change - global warming, Queensland | Leave a comment

Adani coal project has a doubtful financial future

the most fundamental problem may lie within the Adani group itself. The A$2 billion required from the project will ultimately come, in large measure, from chairman Gautam Adani’s own pocket.Adani Group founder Gautam Adani. Wikimedia,

With an estimated wealth of A$7 billion, he can certainly afford to pay if he chooses to. But it would represent a huge bet on the long-term future of coal-fired electricity, at very bad odds.

June 3, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming | Leave a comment

Australian companies, later, governments, may face legal action over climate issues

May 30, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, business, climate change - global warming, legal | Leave a comment

Fast rising sea levels threaten Australia’s major airports

May 30, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming | Leave a comment

Divisions in Labor Party over climate change policy

Labor divided on climate policy after ‘absolute carnage’ at the election, Brisbane Times , By Nicole HashamEryk Bagshaw and Dana McCauley, May 25, 2019

Shadow climate change minister Mark Butler says Labor’s calamitous election loss is no reason to walk away from tough emissions cuts, as a senior party figure described the result of its climate strategy in Queensland as “absolute carnage”.

Labor failed to win office in what was billed as the climate change election, despite having a much bolder policy than the Coalition on cutting greenhouse gas pollution.

The Labor Party’s policy for strong emissions cuts led to “absolute carnage” at the polls in Queensland.CREDIT:AAP

Labor had pledged to cut national emissions by 45 per cent between 2005 and 2030 – far greater than the Coalition’s proposed 26 per cent cut. It wanted renewable energy to form half the electricity mix by 2030 and would have capped pollution from heavy industry through an emissions trading-type scheme.

In his first comments since Labor’s defeat Mr Butler, a key architect of the party’s climate position, said all policies would be reviewed however Labor should not abandon strong emissions cuts.

Labor had pledged to cut national emissions by 45 per cent between 2005 and 2030 – far greater than the Coalition’s proposed 26 per cent cut. It wanted renewable energy to form half the electricity mix by 2030 and would have capped pollution from heavy industry through an emissions trading-type scheme.

In his first comments since Labor’s defeat Mr Butler, a key architect of the party’s climate position, said all policies would be reviewed however Labor should not abandon strong emissions cuts.

The challenge of tackling climate change is just as important this week as it was last week,” he said.

“And Australia remains in the middle of an energy crisis that is still seeing energy prices continue to rise under this government.”  Mr Butler said Labor “remains committed to our obligation to future generations of Australians to take serious action on climate change”.

The election loss has triggered heated internal debate on Labor’s election strategy on climate and energy…….. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-divided-on-climate-policy-after-absolute-carnage-at-the-election-20190524-p51qxi.html

May 25, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, politics | Leave a comment

Mass protest in Melbourne, demanding action on climate change.

Climate change protesters flood Melbourne’s CBD, block traffic in call to action,  More than a thousand people have marched through Melbourne’s CBD and staged a mock “die-in” for climate change. ABC

Key points:

  • Activists marched through the city and staged a “die-in” at Bourke and Swanston streets
  • Organiser Extinction Rebellion called for a Citizens’ Assembly on “climate and ecological justice”
  • The protest disrupted tram schedules in the city during the march

The protest started with speeches at the Victorian Parliament, then marchers moved through the city to the corner of Bourke and Swanston streets where they staged a “die-in”.

A number of protesters dropped to the ground to lie down in the intersection before moving on to Carlton Gardens.

Protesters young and old chanted “this is our future, there is no plan B” and “what do we want — action, when do we want it — now”.

One of the protest organisers, Extinction Rebellion Victoria, called for governments to set up a “Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice” to lead environmental policy.

Extinction Rebellion organised a series of protests in London last month which caused major disruptions…….   https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-24/climate-protesters-flood-melbournes-cbd/11145648

May 25, 2019 Posted by | climate change - global warming, Victoria | Leave a comment

The Australian Labor Party wavers about the Adani coal project, but the anti-coal activists are not giving up.

While the Morrison government, including Resources Minister Matt Canavan, have been quick to seize on pro-Adani sentiment, especially in regional Queensland, after the election trouncing Labor too will likely review its stance on the mine.

Joel Fitzgibbon, Labor’s agriculture spokesman, on Monday warned that the party’s emphasis on climate change over coal jobs cost it heavily, including a 10 per cent swing in his own seat in the Hunter.

But the fight is not likely to go away.

As little as 1 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef will remain if global temperatures rise 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and we are halfway there, the UN reported earlier this month in a landmark report on global biodiversity.

And the climate risks aren’t restricted to the reef. The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor, Guy Debelle, has warned that climate change could cause financial shocks if companies didn’t take the risks seriously in their planning. 

By risks, he was meaning everything from reputational damage to the damages from bushfires and cyclones, events worsened by climate change. It’s for reasons such as this that major lenders QBE, Japanese trading companies and China’s State Development and Investment Corporation have all reduced their investment exposure to coal. 

Are anti-mine activists about to give up?

The Stop Adani campaign says it’s not going to give up its national efforts.

“We’re not going to let that basin be mined,” a spokesperson for the movement said.

Stop Adani’s local organisations have increased to 190 across the country and these groups won’t be put off by the election outcome.

“These kinds of moments are when movements grow,” the spokesperson said. “Nothing has changed about the science nor what’s at stake.”

What’s next for the coal mine that helped to return Morrison to power?   https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/what-s-next-for-the-coal-mine-that-helped-to-return-morrison-to-power-20190520-p51p7j.html  

It’s been a byword for division but, post-election, moves are speeding up to approve Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in Queensland. How did we get here and what’s next?  By Peter Hannam  Adani’s proposed mine in Queensland has long been a lightning rod for division over coal-mining and climate change in Australia. It is also being named as a big reason for Labor’s lost seats in Queensland amid the Morrison government’s upset re-election.Now Queensland’s Premier says everyone’s “had a gutful” of the issue – and she wants it sorted out.

“I am expecting a definite timeframe by Friday,” Premier Palaszczuk said on May 22.

So what’s next for this controversial project and what are the implications of it finally going ahead?

First, what exactly is the project? Continue reading

May 23, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, politics | Leave a comment

There are still serious obstacles to Adani’s coal mine expansion

 

Any impact on the underground aquifers that feed into the Great Artesian Basin would not only be devastating for the environment, but also for all the communities that rely on its water resources.

The original groundwater model submitted by Adani was not “suitable to ensure the outcomes sought by the EPBC Act conditions are met”

May 23, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, politics | Leave a comment

Australian courts will consider the risks of climate change to be foreseeable, thereby creating further responsibilities for companies and directors

May 23, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, legal | Leave a comment

Melissa Price – Australia’s Minister For Coal – but don’t we need a Minister for the Environment?

Environment Minister Price under pressure to front the public,    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/environment-minister-price-under-pressure-to-front-public-after-campaign-20190520-p51pak.html ,By Nicole Hasham, May 20, 2019   Australia has failed to deliver a major report to the United Nations on its progress in halting the extinction crisis as pressure mounts on Environment Minister Melissa Price to front the public over highly controversial election-eve decisions.Ms Price’s absence from the federal election campaign became a national curiosity. She refused scores of media interview requests, ignored challenges from her political rivals for public debates and did not appear at government announcements relating to her portfolio.

This prompted suggestions she was avoiding scrutiny of controversial approvals she granted just before the election, such as groundwater plans for the divisive Adani coal project and a contentious uranium mine in her home state of Western Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has indicated Ms Price will be re-appointed to the portfolio in his next cabinet.

The Department of the Environment and Energy, which Ms Price oversees, was due last December to present Australia’s sixth national report to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.

The report would outline the government’s progress on conservation measures and in meeting the objectives of the convention, to which Australia is a party. However, it has not been delivered.

Australia has one of the world’s worst extinction records. The global crisis was highlighted in a shocking United Nations report this month that warned 1 million species on Earth were headed for extinction within decades.

The Morrison government has also failed to deliver an official plan to protect the nation’s animals and plants. A draft version of the plan, Australia‘s Strategy for Nature 2018-2030, was panned last year as a “global embarrassment” for its brevity and lack of specific targets.

Ms Price’s office did not respond to this publication’s questions or interview request.

Mr Morrison was grilled over the United Nations extinction report and appeared to stumble in his response, referring to government measures that do not exist.

Two days out from the election, Ms Price and Resources Minister Matt Canavan announced an independent audit of energy giant Equinor’s plans to drill for oil in the Great Australian Bight, in response to deep concerns in South Australian coastal electorates.

Should Ms Price continue in the environment portfolio, she faces a number of persistent questions, including how Australia will meet its Paris climate targets if the government’s plans to use carryover carbon credits from the Kyoto period are deemed outside the rules.

In a statement, the department said it was working on the report to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and that this involved “an extensive co-ordination and consolidation process”. The department hopes to finalise the report this year.

The separate national biodiversity strategy was being revised and required agreement from state and federal environment ministers, it said.

Greens environment spokesperson Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said Mr Morrison “must dump Melissa Price from the ministry … The climate and our environment can’t afford another term with Melissa Price as environment minister”.

May 21, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, environment, politics | Leave a comment

Coal industry lobbying Morrison govt to build new coal plants

Coal industry urges re-elected Morrison government to build new coal plants, Guardian,   Ben Smee  @BenSmee 20 May 2019 

The Coal Council calls on Labor to reverse many of its climate policies after strong election swings against it, The coal industry has begun lobbying the re-elected Morrison government to support hardline positions, including building new coal-fired power stations and weakening approvals processes for new mines.

The Coal Council of Australia released a statement on Sunday welcoming the election result, praising the Coalition for supporting coal, and calling on Labor to reverse many of its climate-focused policies towards the fossil fuel…….

Despite the election result, coal will likely remain a vexing issue where policies designed to win regional votes could also cost support in inner-city electorates. Research by the Queensland Resources Council, leaked to the Australia Institute in the days before the election, shows the sector is “nearing crisis” and that coal has created a negative perception.

Queensland Labor sources acknowledged Adani was likely decisive in Herbert, Dawson and Capricornia. But they cautioned against being sucked into the larger narrative, being pushed by supporters of coal, that Adani was an underlying cause for the party’s poor result across Queensland.  https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/20/coal-industry-urges-re-elected-morrison-government-to-build-new-coal-plants

May 21, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, politics | Leave a comment

Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is adamant that there will be no increase in climate action from this government

Our plan is very clear’: No climate revamp for re-elected Coalition,  Australians should not expect any change to the Liberal-National government’s climate change policies after their federal election win.   SBS, 20 May19

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has hosed down any suggestion that the Coalition will be going back to the drawing board on climate change after the government’s come-from-behind election win.

“Our plan is very clear and it’s the plan that we took to the Australian people,” he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has hosed down any suggestion that the Coalition will be going back to the drawing board on climate change after the government’s come-from-behind election win.

“Our plan is very clear and it’s the plan that we took to the Australian people,” he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday.

Mr Frydenberg was among Coalition members who faced a swing against them on Saturday, in the face of challenges from independent or Green candidates campaigning largely on climate change.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott lost his seat to Independent Zali Steggallfor whom climate change was pivotal.

As the results rolled in, outgoing MP Julie Bishop said the Coalition must reassess its position on climate change and possibly revisit former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s signature energy policy.

“It will have to end the uncertainty and the National Energy Guarantee was the closest thing we had to a bipartisan position.” …..

Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek hopes the government finally grapples with climate and energy with a policy aimed at bringing down pollution, reducing power prices and boosting investment in renewables.

“How is this government going to manage that when they are still so broken inside with climate change deniers on one side and people who at least accept the science on the other side, but 14 different energy policies?” https://www.sbs.com.au/news/our-plan-is-very-clear-no-climate-revamp-for-re-elected-coalition

May 20, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, election 2019 | Leave a comment

Environmentalists shocked at election result, but resolute

May 20, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, election 2019 | Leave a comment

Crossbenchers put climate on agenda

SBS 20 May 19,  New independent MP Helen Haines says she doesn’t intend to operate in a bloc with other crossbenchers, saying she runs her own race in Indi., The Victorian seat of Indi’s likely new independent MP Helen Haines says she doesn’t intend to operate as a bloc with fellow crossbenchers, but expects they’ll work together on issues such as climate change.

Ms Haines looks set to take the seat that was previously held by independent Cathy McGowan, winning almost 52 per cent of the vote so far after preferences.

It would make her the first independent to succeed another independent in a seat……..

“I’m not operating as a bloc with the other independents. I very much run my own race in Indi,” she said.

“There’s no doubt, though, that we do see eye-to-eye on action on climate. I think climate is the one that we will be collaborating very closely on the crossbench.”……. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/crossbenchers-put-climate-on-agenda

May 20, 2019 Posted by | AUSTRALIA - NATIONAL, climate change - global warming, election 2019 | Leave a comment